Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) 208/338

Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario)

Today we're back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South!

Northumberland–Peterborough South has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Durham, Northumberland—Quinte West and Peterborough. The population of the riding was 118,756 in 2021. The population centers are Cobourg (20,519 in 2021), Port Hope (17,294 in 2021), and Brighton (12,108 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a good example of a Conservative trending seat that went for the Liberals in 2015. Liberal Kim Rudd ran in the former Northumberland riding in 2011, but won by almost 3 points in 2015, mostly thanks to her support in the lakeshore communities. She held her own in 2019, not losing as much support as other Eastern Ontario Liberal candidates. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Philip Lawrence. 

This riding was relatively untouched in the proposed map the Ontario Federal Electoral Boundaries commission tabled on August 19th, 2022. The riding would gain half of Cavan-Monaghan, specifically the area south of Highway 115. The riding would also lose the Alderville First Nation Reserve. The report is expected to be released by February 9th, 2023. This seat was 10/121 in Ontario and 35/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, the riding is based in Northumberland County and contains part of Peterborough County. The shape is also pretty good, follows the county boundary while tacking on some extra pieces. As for individuality, Eastern Ontario is another breed where the Liberals still get 30+ in "rural" ridings (I know this is not remotely rural, but it sure isn't urban).

Tomorrow, we're up north in Northwest Territories!

North Vancouver (British Columbia) 207/338

 North Vancouver (British Columbia)

Today we're back in BC with North Vancouver!

North Vancouver has existed as a riding since 1988, created from North Vancouver—Burnaby and Capilano. The population of the riding was 123,025 in 2021. The population centers are the city of North Vancouver (58,120 in 2021), the district municipality of North Vancouver (88,168 in 2021, shared with Burnaby North-Seymour), as well as a small part of Metro Vancouver A.

Politically, this seat is a Conservative/Liberal fight, with the Liberals holding it in the past three elections. That is not to say that opposition parties are irrelevant here. In 2019, the Greens received 12.5% of the vote, one of five ridings in the Lower Mainland where they did better than 10%. The NDP had their best performance here in 2021, even better than their 2011 "Orange Wave" performance. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP and Minister of Natural Resources, Jonathan Wilkinson.

One of the provincial ridings within North Vancouver is North Vancouver-Lonsdale, currently represented by Minister of State for Transport, Bowinn Ma. Ma became the first NDP candidate elected on the North Shore since 1991. Since then, Ma has been somewhat of a rising star within the provincial NDP, touted as a possible candidate for the leadership race in 2022. This riding was 28/42 in BC and 153/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is perfect, it contains the entirety of the city and part of the District Municipality. The shape is good, definitely better than the other North Vancouver riding. As for individuality, it is on brand for the rest of the Lower Mainland by being a Conservative riding that has been Liberal in the past few years.

Tomorrow, we'll be back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South!

North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia) 206/338

 North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia)

Today we're back in the BC Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

North Okanagan–Shuswap has existed as a riding since 1988, created from Kamloops—Shuswap and Okanagan North. The population of the riding was 136,520 in 2021. The population centers are Vernon (44,519 in 2021), Salmon Arm (19,432 in 2021), and Coldstream (11,171 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is politically pretty similar to Parry Sound—Muskoka: a solid Conservative riding with a split opposition that has solid Green support. The Greens typically do well in the eastern rural portions, as well as doing well in Vernon in 2019. In 2020, the NDP's 2019 candidate ran for the BC NDP and won Vernon-Monashee by just over 400 votes. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Mel Arnold.

In 2022, the BC Federal Electoral Boundaries commission proposed that the new riding that BC will receive will be placed in the BC interior. The new riding stretches from Vernon down to the downtown core of Kelowna. As such, North Okanagan–Shuswap has expanded to include Revelstoke and the eastern suburbs of Kamloops. In 2019, this seat was 36/42 in BC and 235/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, I like that there are three ridings named after the Okanagan, a fast growing region in BC. The shape is okay, I wish it didn't attach Central Kootenay like that. As for individuality, it's cool seeing the different bases of support for all four parties in the riding.

Tomorrow we'll be back in Metro Vancouver with North Vancouver!

North Island—Powell River (British Columbia) 205/338

 North Island—Powell River (British Columbia)

Today we're starting a little trip through BC's three regions with North Island—Powell River!

North Island—Powell River has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after existing from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 111,825 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Campbell River (35,519 in 2021), Comox (14,806 in 2021), and Powell River (13,943 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has typically been an NDP/Conservative marginal seat. The Conservatives have a solid base in Campbell River and in the north of the riding, while the NDP do well in the Comox Valley and in Powell River. In 2006 when the Conservatives formed government, the NDP defeated incumbent MP John Duncan by just 630 votes, but lost by 2,485 votes in 2008. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Rachel Blaney.

It's fitting that we're discussing Vancouver Island on the day that Premier John Horgan announces that he isn't seeking another term as Premier of British Columbia. While I could discuss leadership potential, I'll instead discuss one of the MLA's that make up most of the area. Ronna-Rae Leonard has represented Courtenay-Comox since 2017, winning a seat that hadn't been held by the party since 2001. She actually ran for the federal NDP in 2011 in Vancouver Island North, losing by just 1,827 votes. In 2019, this seat was 9/42 in BC and 51/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, quite descriptive of the region. The shape is good, I hope eventually the entire Comox Valley will be intact. As for individuality, this is definitely a test of the realignment, but it also has gone to the left to a certain extent.

Tomorrow we'll be in the Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario) 204/338

 Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Nipissing—Timiskaming has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Nipissing and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 89,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of North Bay (52,662 in 2021), Temiskaming Shores (9,634 in 2021), and East Ferris (4,946 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is usually a Liberal seat with solid Conservative support. In fact, in the past 100 years, it has only been won by Conservatives twice: in 1984 and 2011, both Conservative majorities. Otherwise, this was one of the better results for the PPC in 2019, due to North Bay city councillor Mark King running for the party, receiving almost 2,500 votes. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Speaker of the House Anthony Rota.

Anthony Rota has served in the House of Commons for all but four years since 2004, losing just once in 2011 by just 18 votes. In 2019, Rota was elected the 37th speaker of the House of Commons, the first from Northern Ontario since James Jerome in the 1970's. It should also be noted that Ontario Premier Mike Harris represented this seat from 1981-2002, serving as premier from 1995-2002. In 2019, this seat was 48/121 in Ontario and 123/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, it's almost entirely contained within the Nipissing and Timiskaming Territorial Districts. The shape is fine for the most part, I just wish the Nipissing 10 appendage in the west was a bit cleaner. As for individuality, it's surprising that the seat doesn't flip more than it does. 

Tomorrow we'll be back on the west coast with North Island—Powell River!

Nickel Belt (Ontario) 203/338

 Nickel Belt (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Nickel Belt has existed as a riding since 1952, created from Algoma East, Algoma—Manitoulin, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sudbury and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 94,947 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Greater Sudbury (166,004 in 2021, shared with Sudbury), West Nipissing (14,583 in 2021), and French River (2,828 in 2021). As of the 2016 Census, this riding was >50% bilingual, while the Ontario average was just over 11%.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/NDP fight, but that isn't to say the races have been particularly close. In the last sixty years, it has only been closer than five points in 2006, 1979, and 1965. However, the seat has become friendlier to Conservatives in recent years, they snuck into second place in 2021, helped by their performance in Greater Sudbury. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Marc Serré.

The Serré name goes pretty far back in Northern Ontario and even in Nickel Belt itself. Marc Serré is the son of one-term Nickel Belt Liberal MP Gaetan Serré, winning when all but one seat in Northern Ontario went to the Liberals as part of Pierre Trudeau's first majority government. Interestingly in his re-election bid in 1972, there were over 4,700 rejected ballots, which could've put him over, but he withdrew his request for them to be counted after seeing a sample. Gaetan Serré's brother, Benoît Serré, served as MP for Timiskaming—French River and Timiskaming—Cochrane from 1993-2004. Both Gaetan and Benoît Serré passed away recently, in November 2017 and May 2019 respectively. In 2019, this seat was 23/121 in Ontario and 68/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Northern Ontario and especially Greater Sudbury are nickel-rich and historically has been a big attraction for mining jobs (in 2016, 17% of the men in the riding were miners). The shape is good, I like the provincial version better that is completely surrounding the Sudbury riding. As for individuality, the riding likes to bounce between the Liberals and NDP but the Conservatives are rising, which is common for Northern Ontario.

Tomorrow, we're one riding east with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Niagara West (Ontario) 202/338

 Niagara West (Ontario)

Today we're back in the Niagara Region with Niagara West!

Niagara West has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Niagara West—Glanbrook, St. Catharines and Welland. The population of the riding was 96,946 in 2021. The riding contains the towns of Grimsby (28,883 in 2021), Lincoln (25,719 in 2021), and Pelham (18,192 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a classic rural seat that was Liberal during the Reform/PC split years. The rural areas leaned further and further towards the Reform party from 1993-2000, but the Liberals did really well in the urban centres of Grimsby and Pelham. Even when the Conservatives picked the seat up in 2004, the Liberals still overwhelmingly won Pelham. The seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Dean Allison.

Provincially, this seat was held by PC MPP, PC Leader, and Leader of the Opposition Tim Hudak. In 1995, he won the seat by just under 1,200 votes, making him the second youngest MPP, just after John Baird. He served in both Mike Harris and Ernie Eaves' cabinets. In 2009, he won the PC Leadership over Frank Klees, Christine Elliot, and Randy Hillier. He successfully held the Liberal government to a minority in 2011, putting himself in a good position to form government next time around. However, due to some missteps by his campaign, he fell out of favour, leading to a Liberal majority and his resignation in July 2014. In 2019, this seat was 47/121 in Ontario and 122/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is quite good, I think I'd even be okay with something like Lincoln-Pelham. The shape is also great, not the biggest fan of the municipal boundaries on the east, but that's not the biggest issue. As for individuality, it's a Conservative rural Ontario seat that's under populated, not too surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Niagara Falls (Ontario) 201/338

 Niagara Falls (Ontario)

Today we're in Niagara Falls!

Niagara Falls has existed as a riding since 1953. The population of the riding was 146,404 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Niagara Falls (94,415 in 2021), Fort Erie (32,901 in 2021), and Niagara-on-the-Lake (19,088 in 2021). The riding grew by about 18,000 people since the 2011 Census, the most this far south in Ontario.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/Conservative swing district, but has had its moments of safety for each party. Between 1965 and 1988 the seat was represented by a new MP each election, for a total of seven MPs. While the conservative parties were divided from 1993-2000, the riding was won by the Liberals. As soon as the reunified, the riding went for the Conservatives, where it has been since. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli.

From 1984-1993 and 2004-2019, the seat was represented by Conservative MP Rob Nicholson. When Kim Campbell became prime minister, she appointed Nicholson to be minister for science and small business. When the Harper Conservatives went into government, he was appointed Government House Leader. He held a few more cabinet positions after this, namely minister of justice, minister of defence, and minister of foreign affairs. In 2019, this seat was 9/121 and 28/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, central location, largest population centre, and a well known name. The shape is also good, I'm sure that it'll lose either Niagara-on-the-Lake or Fort Erie next redistribution. As for individuality, interesting that a riding so historically close has gotten more reliable in recent years.

Tomorrow we'll be a few ridings west with Niagara West!

Niagara Centre (Ontario) 200/338

 Niagara Centre (Ontario)

Today we have our 200th riding with Niagara Centre!

Niagara Centre has existed as a riding for all but nine years since Confederation. The population of the riding was 119,809 in 2021. The riding contains the cities of Welland (55,750 in 2021), Thorold (23,816 in 2021), and Port Colborne (20,033 in 2021). It also contains the southern part of St. Catharines.

Politically, this seat has good news for the Liberals, NDP, and the Conservatives. For the Liberals, they've held it for all but eleven years since 1935. For the NDP, they have a solid base here that fluctuates, but manifested in a 2008/2011 win. For the Conservatives, they've gotten very close in recent years, including finishing just 300 votes behind the NDP in 2008. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Vance Badawey.

With the Ontario provincial election behind us, there was a good expectation that the provincial NDP would lose the three seats that they hold in the Niagara Region. Despite the NDP losing ground across the province, their incumbents held on, with Jennie Stevens increasing her vote share in St. Catharines. That isn't to say they were easy wins, Niagara Centre was won by just 854 votes. In 2019, this seat was 12/121 in Ontario and 40/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, I don't mind it, I do think that with the rate of growth in Thorold that naming it Welland-Thorold in the future would be appropriate. The shape is okay, not exactly the cleanest, but it does follow the municipal lines. As for individuality, this riding is cool in the sense that it's definitely in a transition period.

Tomorrow we're in Niagara Falls!

Newmarket—Aurora (Ontario) 199/338

 Newmarket—Aurora (Ontario)

Today we're back in the GTA with Newmarket—Aurora!

Newmarket—Aurora has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 127,134 in 2021. The riding contains the city of Newmarket (87,942 in 2021), Aurora (62,057 in 2021, shared with Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill), and East Gwillimbury (34,637 in 2021, shared with York—Simcoe).

Politically, this seat is a typical Liberal-Conservative York Region race, even including a floor-crossing from the Conservatives to the Liberals. There is usually sizable NDP support comparative to the region, in 2019 and 2020 this was the one riding where the NDP got over 10%. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Tony Van Bynen.

A name that political junkies in Ontario should know the name of Dorian Baxter. Dorian Baxter has run in elections since 2004, mostly in Newmarket—Aurora, but has run around the province in a few by-elections. His best performance in vote total was in the 2014 Newmarket mayoral election when he got 1,407 votes and 7% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 16/121 in Ontario and 50/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, I don't see any other way to make it better. The shape is good too, it's just a straight up rectangle. As for individuality, it's a Liberal/Conservative race in York Region, shocker. 

Tomorrow we'll be back in Niagara Centre!

New Westminster—Burnaby (British Columbia) 198/338

 New Westminster—Burnaby (British Columbia)

Today we're back in Metro Vancouver with New Westminster—Burnaby!

New Westminster—Burnaby has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after previously being used from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 125,253 in 2021. The riding contains the city of New Westminster (78,916 in 2021) and Burnaby. This is the first time since 2000 that New Westminster has stayed completely intact during a redistribution.

Politically, New Westminster has generally been friendly to the NDP, even during the 1993 and 1997 elections, when the NDP were in a weakened state, they were still within 2,000 votes of winning the seat. From 2004-2015, New Westminster was split down the middle, however, because Coquitlam is also quite friendly to the NDP, it didn't affect results too much. The seat is currently represented by NDP MP Peter Julian.

On May 2nd, 2022, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for BC released their proposal for the new federal electoral boundaries, adding a new riding for a total of 43. Currently, Burnaby is split between three ridings, New Westminster is contained in one. Under the proposed boundaries, Burnaby is split between six ridings and New Westminster two, including one across the Fraser River into Surrey. There are public hearings currently occurring across the country, as these boundaries aren't set in stone. In 2019, this seat was 32/42 in BC and 199/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, no criticism here. The shape is also pretty good, I don't really know how else to draw it otherwise. As for individuality, this part of the Lower Mainland is pretty friendly to the NDP, provincially and federally.

Tomorrow we'll be back in the GTA with Newmarket—Aurora!

New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick) 197/338

 New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with New Brunswick Southwest!

New Brunswick Southwest has existed as a riding since 2000, but has existed in some form since Confederation. The population was 67,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Grand Bay-Westfield (4,967 in 2021), St. Stephen (4,510 in 2021), and St. George (1,579 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been Conservative for all but eight years since 1968. The two elections where the Liberals won the Conservatives were weakened in Atlantic Canada (1993 with the PC/Reform split, 2015 with the Liberal sweep). The riding also elected their first female MP in 2015. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP John Williamson.

If the revived PANB were to have any chance to break through in New Brunswick, it'd be in the Saint-Croix. In an election where the PANB lost a seat and 4% of their popular vote, the PANB candidate surged 15 points and finished just under 13 points behind the PC candidate. However, it'd be tough for the PANB to come back from their weakened position, especially with the Liberals rising in popularity, due to holding the seat just six years ago. In 2019, this seat was 8/10 in New Brunswick and 222/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is decent, I'd prefer if they stuck with county names. The shape is not great, I wish it didn't have that appendage that sticks into the Fundy Royal riding. As for individuality, it's a longtime PC riding that went Liberal in 1993 and 2015, how surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be back in my neck of the woods with New Westminster—Burnaby!

Nepean (Ontario) 196/338

 Nepean (Ontario) 

Today we're in Nepean!

Nepean has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, having formerly existed from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 132,769 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Ottawa and contains the former city of Nepean, including the neighbourhoods of Bells Corners, Barrhaven, and Merivale Gardens.

Politically, this seat has a Liberal history (as does most of Ottawa), but has gone to the Conservatives as recently as 2011. The seat usually has lukewarm Conservative support, but mostly concentrated around Barrhaven. The NDP aren't much of a factor, but they have doubled their vote share since 2015, thanks to areas close to the urban centre of Ottawa. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Chandra Arya.

Tomorrow (June 2nd, 2022) is Ontario's 43rd General election, and while this riding was a large win for the PC's, we're in a very different situation this time around. According to polling data, the PC's have lost around 2-3% of their vote share, while the Liberals are up about 6-7%, making this seat more competitive for the Liberals, especially due to the faltering NDP, down about 10%. However, even in the best of Liberal elections, the PC's have always won by pretty good margins. In 2019, this seat was 44/121 in Ontario 115/338 in Ontario by margin.

The name is great, it is straight up just Nepean. The shape is also good, maybe not the biggest fan of the way the Kanata riding curves into this one, but that is unavoidable. As for individuality, not hard to find strong PC provincial ridings and Liberal federal ridings in the same region.

Tomorrow we'll be off because I'm not sure if y'all want to hear about New Brunswick Southwest on June 2nd, but you WILL hear about it on June 3rd.

Nanaimo–Ladysmith (BC) 195/338

 Nanaimo–Ladysmith (BC)

Today we're back on Vancouver Island with Nanaimo–Ladysmith!

Nanaimo–Ladysmith has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Nanaimo—Alberni and Nanaimo—Cowichan. The population of the riding was 134,509 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Nanaimo (99,863 in 2021), Ladysmith (8,990 in 2021), and Lantzville (3,817 in 2021).

Politically, this was one of the closest races in 2021 as well as one of the lowest vote shares for a winner. Once an NDP stronghold, the Greens took it in a by-election in 2019 and held it that year in the general election. However, the NDP rose due to the faltering Greens, causing them to win and the Conservatives place second in a riding they have historically done well. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Lisa Marie Barron.

Provincially, the MLA for Nanaimo is the former MP for Nanaimo–Ladysmith, from 2015-2019. She was elected in a by-election to represent Nanaimo, given a parliamentary secretary role in July 2019, and elevated to cabinet after the 2020 election. She was made minister of mental health and addictions. On the day this was posted (May 31st, 2022), BC became the first jurisdiction in North America to decriminalize simple possession of illicit drugs, up to 2.5 grams. There is still a long way to go and the announcement is 2 grams below what the BC government was wishing, but it is a step in the right direction in a province ravaged by the overdose crisis. In 2019, this seat was 20/42 in BC and 86/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Ladysmith is on the southeast of the riding, good reason to mention it. The shape is good, BC's regional district shapes are a bit wonky, but at least they're followed here. As for individuality, definitely quite individual, but it is on Vancouver Island, it's a miracle (or a curse) the Greens didn't win any other seats on Vancouver Island in 2019.

Tomorrow we'll be in Nepean for the penultimate day of the Ontario election!

Mount Royal (Quebec) 194/338

 Mount Royal (Quebec)

Today we're in Montreal with Mount Royal!

Mount Royal has existed as a riding since 1925, known as Mont-Royal in French (almost was the English name after the 2012 redistribution, but was changed back to Mount Royal). The population of the riding was 108,494 in 2021. The riding contains the cities of Côte-Saint-Luc (34,504 in 2021), Mont-Royal (20,953 in 2021), and Hampstead (7,037 in 2021).

Politically, former SoCred leader Réal Caouette was quite correct when he said that a mailbox could win the Liberal nomination in Mount Royal and still win election just because it was red. Even in wave elections across Quebec, the seat has remained steadfast in its support for the Liberals. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Anthony Housefather.

From 1965-1984, the seat was represented by Pierre Elliot Trudeau. In his first election as Liberal leader, Trudeau won this seat with 91% support, which was replicated provincially until. Trudeau would serve as Prime Minister until 1979 and from 1980 to 1984. Trudeau considered himself to be aligned with the NDP, however he didn't believe they'd be able to form government, so he ran for the Liberals. The NDP actually had their best performance in the riding in 1965 when Quebec President Charles Taylor received 30% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 61/78 in Quebec and 260/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, I wish more cities had as clearly defined boroughs (these are separate cities, but you know what I mean). The shape is also good, I like that it's remained relatively intact since 1968. As for individuality, this side of the island is so Liberal, but it's saved by the fact that PET served here.

Tomorrow we'll be on Vancouver Island with Nanaimo—Ladysmith!

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan) 193/338

 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan)

Today we’re in Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan!

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 80,547 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Moose Jaw (33,665 in 2021), Outlook (2,336 in 2021), and Lumsden (1,800 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been very Conservative since 2006, but it is hard to compare former results due to how much the riding boundaries have changed since then. Currently, the only place where non-Conservative parties are competitive is Moose Jaw and Whitecap 94. However, riding-wide there was still a 28 point different in the best of election years. This riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Fraser Tolmie. 

From 1940-1953, future Prime Minister John Diefenbaker represented Lake Centre. However, after the 1952 redistribution, it was abolished into four much less PC friendly ridings. To save face and have a better chance in 1953, he ran in the Prince Albert riding, which proved successful, as he served there until his death in 1979. In 2019, this seat was 9/14 in Saskatchewan and 312/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is okay, there's only one major urban centre and Lake Centre has been used in a riding name more times than not. The shape is good, I like how it looks like a rotation of Regina–Qu'Appelle. As for individuality, it's another rural Saskatchewan riding, but this one has a Prime Minister attached at least.

See you soon in Mount Royal!

Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (Quebec) 192/338

Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (Quebec)

Today we're in eastern Quebec with Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup!

Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 96,724 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Rivière-du-Loup (20,118 in 2021), Montmagny (10,999 in 2021), and Saint-Antonin (4,338 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has had some very close calls during the 2011 and 2015 elections. In 2011, NDP MP François Lapointe won by just 9 votes over the incumbent Bernard Généreux. In 2015, Généreux took the seat back by just 272 votes, totaling just 28.99% of votes in the riding. Pre-2009, the seat was safe Bloc, post-2019 it's been safe for the Conservatives. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Bernard Généreux. 

Provincially, the seat in the east of the riding actually had a solid performance for the Liberals, largely due to former mayor Jean D'Amour serving as the successful candidate in the 2009 by-election. He fended off the PQ in 2009 and 2012, and winning a sizeable majority in 2014, despite some controversies prior to his provincial career. He lost by just under 2,000 votes in 2018. In 2019, this seat was 24/78 in Quebec and 90/338 in Canada by margin.

The name. It speaks for itself. I say just name it Rivière-du-Loup–Montmagny like it was in 2004. The shape is honestly not that bad, maybe not the biggest fan of the eastern part, but not too bad. As for individuality, not every day does someone win by just 9 votes.

Tomorrow we're back in Saskatchewan with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan!

Montcalm (Quebec) 191/338

 Montcalm (Quebec)

Today we're in Quebec with Montcalm!

Montcalm has existed as a riding in its current form since 2004, but previously existed from Confederation until 1917. The population of this riding was 118,746 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Mascouche (51,183 in 2021), Saint-Lin–Laurentides (24,030 in 2021), and Sainte-Julienne (11,173 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been Bloc for all but four years since 1993. The NDP won in 2011 by more than 20 points. 2011-2015 MP Manon Perreault was ejected from caucus after being charged with public mischief and eventually convicted. She ran in 2015 under the Strength in Democracy banner, performing okay relative to other SD candidates. This seat is currently represented by Bloc MP Luc Thériault.

Provincially, the southern portion of this riding is represented by Quebec premier François Legault. From 1998-2009, he represented Rousseau as a PQ MNA, which contains more of this federal riding. In 2011, he co-founded a new political movement, the Coalition Avenir Québec, slowly rising up the ranks in 2012 and 2014, before winning a majority government in 2018. Currently, the CAQ is polling at the mid forties, with no clear opposition party in contention for government. In 2019, this seat was 69/78 in Quebec and 284/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, at least half of the population is in the Montcalm Regional County Municipality. The shape is also quite good, not a huge fan of the area around L’Épiphanie. As for individuality, come October, I'm sure there won't be much individuality across the province.

Tomorrow, we'll be in eastern Quebec with Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup!

Montarville (Quebec) 190/338

 Montarville (Quebec)

Today we're back with Montarville!

Montarville has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Chambly—Borduas, Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert and Verchères—Les Patriotes. The population of the riding was 100,515 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Sainte-Julie (30,045 in 2021), Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville (26,273 in 2021), and part of Longueuil. 

Politically, this seat has been perceptive to the several waves Quebec has seen in recent years (NDP 2011, Liberal 2015, Bloc 2019). Throughout much of the Montérégie east of Longueuil, the Liberals haven't been competitive since 2015, however the communities of Longueuil and Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville keep them competitive in this riding. This seat is currently held by Bloc MP Stéphane Bergeron.

This isn't the first time Stéphane Bergeron has been in the House of Commons. Starting in 1993, he represented a riding immediately north of this one until his resignation in November of 2005. He won a by-election for the equivalent provincial riding in 2005, representing Verchères until 2018, when he lost by 827 votes, performing the best amongst losing PQ candidates. In 2019, this seat was 21/78 in Quebec and 70/338 in Canada.

The name is great, Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville is a pretty central and large community. The shape is interesting, municipal boundaries are the reason we have the fun little appendages around the borders. As for individuality, I'm surprised the Liberals are still competitive, but the Longueuil is quite Liberal.

Tomorrow we'll be north of Montreal in Montcalm!

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (New Brunswick) 189/338

 Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe!

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe has existed as a riding since 1968, created from Westmorland. The population of the riding was 101,237 in 2021. The riding contains the city of Moncton (79,470 in 2021), as well as part of Dieppe (28,114 in 2021), and Riverview (20,584 in 2021). The riding was renamed from just Moncton in 1997, despite containing parts of Riverview and Dieppe previously.

Politically, this seat is a solid bet for the Liberals until the Conservatives do very well. Conservatives won in 1968 and 1972 when Robert Stanfield's PC's had command over Atlantic Canada. Their next wins were in 1984 and 2011, Conservative majority elections. Third parties have also had good elections here, the NDP getting within 3,400 votes in 2011 and the Greens placing third in 2019 with just under 18%. This seat is currently represented by minister of official languages, minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, and Liberal MP Ginette Petitpas Taylor.

In the 2015 election, New Brunswick saw all 10 ridings go Liberal after just one was previously. There were some narrow wins that flipped back the next election (3.79% in Fundy Royal, 5.36% in New Brunswick Southwest, 9.59% in Tobique—Mactaquac). However, some incumbents lost hard, namely Bernard Valcourt received just 16.5% in Madawaska—Restigouche, placing third, and Robert Goguen received just 21.5% in this riding, although he had won with just 35.7% in 2011. In 2019, this seat was 4/10 in New Brunswick and 183/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, it names all three municipalities involved in the riding. The shape is okay, I'd rather they choose either Dieppe or Riverview so that only one is shared in another riding. As for individuality, interesting that a riding that is this urban AND Atlantic has been friendly to Conservatives in recent history.

See you soon in Montarville!