New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick) 197/338

 New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with New Brunswick Southwest!

New Brunswick Southwest has existed as a riding since 2000, but has existed in some form since Confederation. The population was 67,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Grand Bay-Westfield (4,967 in 2021), St. Stephen (4,510 in 2021), and St. George (1,579 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been Conservative for all but eight years since 1968. The two elections where the Liberals won the Conservatives were weakened in Atlantic Canada (1993 with the PC/Reform split, 2015 with the Liberal sweep). The riding also elected their first female MP in 2015. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP John Williamson.

If the revived PANB were to have any chance to break through in New Brunswick, it'd be in the Saint-Croix. In an election where the PANB lost a seat and 4% of their popular vote, the PANB candidate surged 15 points and finished just under 13 points behind the PC candidate. However, it'd be tough for the PANB to come back from their weakened position, especially with the Liberals rising in popularity, due to holding the seat just six years ago. In 2019, this seat was 8/10 in New Brunswick and 222/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is decent, I'd prefer if they stuck with county names. The shape is not great, I wish it didn't have that appendage that sticks into the Fundy Royal riding. As for individuality, it's a longtime PC riding that went Liberal in 1993 and 2015, how surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be back in my neck of the woods with New Westminster—Burnaby!