Mississauga—Erin Mills (Ontario) 185/338

 Mississauga—Erin Mills (Ontario)

Today we're in western Mississauga with Mississauga—Erin Mills!

Mississauga—Erin Mills has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Mississauga—Erindale and Halton. The population of the riding was 123,371 in 2021. The riding contains the neighbourhood of Erin Mills, developed by the Cadillac Fairview Corporation around the Erin Mills Town Centre, starting in the 1970's. 

Politically, this seat was the first seat in Mississauga to flip to the Conservatives during the Harper Era, by just 397 votes in 2008, the writing on the wall for the coming sweep of 2011. Nowadays, it is pretty average as far as Mississauga ridings go: Liberals getting a bare majority, Conservatives in low to mid-30's, NDP in low 10's. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Iqra Khalid.

From 2015-2021, Iqra Khalid was the only woman to represent a riding in Mississauga federally. First elected in 2015, Khalid has been a strong advocate for human rights in the House of Commons. For her work, she was named one of Chatelaine's Women of the Year in 2017. In 2019, this seat was 82/121 in Ontario and 200/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, almost the entire riding contains Erin Mills. The shape is also pretty good, good natural borders. As for individuality, not that individual as far as ridings go.

Tomorrow we'll be back in Mississauga with Mississauga—Lakeshore!

Mississauga East—Cooksville (Ontario) 184/338

 Mississauga East—Cooksville (Ontario) 

Today we're in eastern Mississauga with Mississauga East—Cooksville!

Mississauga East—Cooksville has existed as the 2003 redistribution, created from Mississauga Centre and Mississauga East. The population of the riding was 116,346 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Mississauga and contains the neighbourhoods of Cooksville, Rockwood Village, and Dixie. 

Politically, this seat was the tightest loss for the Liberals in 2011, making it an easy pickup for them in 2015. From 2011-2019, the Liberal and Conservative candidates were the same, Wladyslaw Lizon for the Tories and Peter Fonesca for the Liberals. Lizon won by just 676 in 2011, only to lose by around 10,000 votes in 2015 and 2019. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Peter Fonesca.

Provincially, this riding is one to watch in this upcoming provincial election. The Liberals held on to much of their support in 2018, only losing the riding by 11 points. The Liberals are running former MPP Dipika Damerla, who last won with 52% of the vote, while the PC's are running incumbent Kaleed Rasheed, Ontario's first associate minister of digital government. In 2019, this seat was 76/121 in Ontario and 186/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Cooksville is an appendage and isn't particularly eastern, so naming it specifically makes sense. The shape is good as well, it follows major streets as well as Etobicoke Creek. As for individuality, provincially it's interesting, federally, not so much.

Tomorrow we're further west in Mississauga—Erin Mills!

Mississauga Centre (Ontario) 183/338

 Mississauga Centre (Ontario)

Today we're starting our Mississauga adventure in Mississauga Centre!

Mississauga Centre existed as a riding from 1997-2004 and was recreated in 2012. The population of the riding was 127,377 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Mississauga and contains the neighbourhoods of East Credit, Creditview, and Erindale. The riding was dissolved into and created from four of the five Mississauga ridings from 2004-2012.

Politically, this riding was the most Liberal in Mississauga in 2021, as well as the least Conservative. This is notable because just 14 years ago, part of this seat narrowly flipped to the Conservatives in 2008, an omen of their future sweep in 2011. This seat is currently held by Minister of Transport and Liberal MP Omar Alghabra.

Omar Alghabra was first elected in 2006, serving for just two years until losing his seat in 2008 to Conservative MP Bob Dechert, getting back in the House of Commons in 2015. He served as a parliamentary secretary in foreign affairs, international trade diversification, intergovernmental affairs, as well as directly serving the prime minister and deputy prime minister. In 2019, this seat was 98/121 in Ontario and 237/338 in Canada.

The name is great, it's in Mississauga and it's pretty central if you ask me. The shape is not my favourite, I wish the Hurontario portion was a bit cleaner, which could be fixed by nixing the southwest portion in Erindale. As for individuality, the big left turn, I'm sure having a high profile minister doesn't hurt.

Tomorrow we'll be east in Mississauga East—Cooksville!

Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon (British Columbia) 182/338

 Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon (British Columbia)

Today we're back in the Fraser Valley with Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon!

Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Abbotsford, Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon, and Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission. The population of the riding was 101,216 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Abbotsford (153,524 in 2021), Mission (41,519 in 2021), and Kent (6,300 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has had some interesting trends. First, the seat was a surprise Liberal win in 2015, their win can be attributed to both Mission and the Clearbrook neighbourhood of Abbotsford which is in this riding (which arguably keeps the Liberals competitive to this day). Second, the Conservatives have improved their popular vote in the past two elections, when the rest of the Fraser Valley went towards the NDP and PPC in 2021. This riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Brad Vis.

In provincial redistribution news, Mission is currently split between two ridings: Maple Ridge—Mission and Abbotsford—Mission despite having a population below the quota of around 54,000. On March 28, 2022, the Mayor of Mission (Paul Horn), as well as the two MLAs (Bob D'Eith and Pam Alexis), and others signed a letter to the Electoral Boundaries Commission of BC urging the commission to give Mission its own sole riding (while including some electoral areas to the East). They outlined five reasons, namely population growth, neighbourhood representation, indigenous peoples, splitting municipalities, and more. The preliminary report is due in Fall of 2022, which includes up to 6 new ridings without the current special Northern representation. In 2019, this seat was 25/42 in BC and 148/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is not my favourite, a bit long winded, but it all has a reason to be there I suppose. In terms of shape, I like the way the commission last time dealt with the electoral areas north of the Lower Mainland in 2012. As for individuality, looking back this is one of the more surprising 2015 Liberal wins. 

Tomorrow we begin our Mississauga adventure with Mississauga Centre!

Miramichi—Grand Lake (New Brunswick) 181/338

 Miramichi—Grand Lake (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with Miramichi—Grand Lake!

Miramichi—Grand Lake has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, renamed from just Miramichi (along with some minor geographical redistribution). The population of the riding was 57,520 in 2021. The largest communities are Miramichi (17,692 in 2021), Minto (2,234 in 2021), and Neguac (1,692 in 2021). 

Politically, this seat has been Liberal until the Conservatives do well in rural Atlantic Canada. In 1984, Brian Mulroney won all but seven of the thirty two seats. In 2008, the Conservatives made headway into AC, which made it easy to win every province but Newfoundland in 2011. In 2021, there was a realignment in AC, with much of rural Atlantic Canada getting closer for the Conservatives, flipping two seats in Nova Scotia, one seat in Newfoundland, and this seat in New Brunswick. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Jake Stewart. 

Jake Stewart and his Liberal opponent Lisa Harris both vacated seats from the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly to run for federal office, their subsequent by-elections are due on June 20th, 2022. With that in mind, Stewart's former seat is safe, it was a 20 point margin between him and the second place PANB (which has since merged with the PC's). Harris' seat is a little trickier. The PANB+PC total is more than her winning percentage last time, but that is by just 88 votes, and doesn't account for current polling, which has the Liberals neck in neck with the PC's (we have yet to receive a post-merger poll). In 2019, this seat was 1/10 in New Brunswick and 10/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, big urban centre + big lake is a good name in my books. The shape is also good, I like how a lot of rural Atlantic Canada ridings look. As for individuality, interesting how this riding didn't flip in 1997 but did in 2021.

See you soon with Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon!

Mirabel (Quebec) 180/338

 Mirabel (Quebec)

Today we're back in Quebec with Mirabel!

Mirabel has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord and Terrebonne—Blainville. The population of the riding was 132,930 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Mirabel (61,108 in 2021), Sainte-Marthe-sur-le Lac (19,797 in 2021), and Saint-Colomban (17,740 in 2021). 

Politically, this riding has been Bloc since 1993 for all but four years (guess those four years). Due to the moderate support for both the Conservatives and Liberals, there has always been a split amongst the federalist parties, allowing the Bloc to sneak by with just 542 votes to spare in 2000. The Orange Wave was too strong for the Bloc however, knocking them down to just 31% in 2011. This seat is currently represented by Bloc MP Jean-Denis Garon.

Despite Quebec only growing by 4.1% between 2016 and 2021, this riding grew by a sizeable 13%. With redistribution happening soon, this region should be getting more of an electoral impact. Even in 2011, the previous seat had a population of 124,180, it contained much of the current riding and modern day Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation. In 2019, this seat was 53/78 in Quebec and 236/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Mirabel is pretty central and contains almost half the population. The shape is okay, not really a fan of having to attach Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines, but that will be fixed soon hopefully. As for individually, it is Bloc federally and CAQ provincially, not too out of the ordinary.

Tomorrow we'll be back in New Brunswick with Miramichi—Grand Lake!

Milton (Ontario) 179/338

 Milton (Ontario)

Today we're in Halton with Milton!

Milton has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Halton. The population of the riding was 136,993 in 2021. The riding contains the town of Milton (132,979 in 2021) as well as part of Burlington. The riding has grown 20.1% between 2016 and 2021. 

Politically, this seat was a prime example of the Ford Effect in 2019. The riding was won by the Conservatives in 2015 by just over 2,400 votes, not the surge the Liberals experienced across the rest of the GTA. However, in 2019, both the Conservatives and NDP saw a good chunk of their voters go towards the Liberals, giving them the riding. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Adam Van Koeverden.

The MP before Van Koeverden was Lisa Raitt. Raitt, a notable moderate in the party, served in Parliament from 2008-2019. During the Harper years, she served in three different cabinet portfolios: Natural Resources, Labour, and Transport. In 2017, she ran for the Conservative leadership, performing quite well in Atlantic Canada, but ultimately only receiving 3.34% on the first ballot. She became deputy leader of the Conservative Party and served as such from July 2017 until she lost her seat in 2019. In 2019, this seat was 62/121 in Ontario and 146/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, almost the entire population is in Milton, and I'm sure it will be exclusively Milton soon. The shape is also good, a nice mix of the geometric shapes of urban Halton and the way rural Ontario looks. As for individuality, that swing is pretty interesting, Ford Effect aside. 

Tomorrow we'll be back in Quebec with Mirabel!

Mégantic–L'Érable (Quebec) 178/338

 Mégantic–L'Érable (Quebec)

Today we're in eastern Quebec with Mégantic–L'Érable!

Mégantic–L'Érable has existed as a riding since the 2003 redistribution, created from Frontenac—Mégantic and Lotbinière—L'Érable. The population of the riding was 88,894 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Thetford Mines (26,072 in 2021), Plessisville (6,414 in 2021), and Lac-Mégantic (5,747 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is in the Conservative heartland of Quebec (yes, they have one of those). Starting in 2006, this seat has been Conservative by double digits, though the Bloc typically doesn't do too bad here. It has gotten more Conservative in recent years, with over 50% of the riding voting for the Conservatives in 2021, the first party to do that since 1993, when the Bloc won over 50% in three of the four former ridings. The seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Luc Berthold.

With the recent rise in the Conservative Party of Quebec in the polls, this is a region where that could materialize. In the past two elections, the two ridings here have taken a turn to the "conservative" party of the moment (Liberals in 2014, CAQ in 2018). However, the main issue in Éric Duhaime's way is the dominance of the CAQ and their likely supermajority in October. In 2019, this seat was 50/78 in Quebec and 221/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is okay, I wish there was some mention of Les Appalaches since it has the most population. The shape is fine, I'm not the biggest fan of the way this region is shaped, reminds me too much of the old Toronto "bacon" ridings. As for individuality, it has quickly become the most Conservative riding east of Manitoba. 

Tomorrow we're back in Ontario with Milton!

Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner (Alberta) 177/338

 Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner (Alberta)

Today we're back in Alberta with Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner!

Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner has existed as a riding since 1907, receiving its current name in 2012. The population of the riding was 108,391 in 2021. The riding contains the city of Medicine Hat (63,271 in 2021) as well as the towns of Redcliff (5,581 in 2021) and Raymond (4,199 in 2021). The riding contains almost the entire southern Alberta border, save for the portion in the Foothills riding.

Politically, this seat is in the Conservative heartland of Alberta, and has voted as such for over fifty years. While most of rural Alberta has more recently voted Social Credit than Liberal, this seat voted for the Liberals in 1968 by just 206 votes. Granted, that was aided by a floor crossing SoCred, but alas. The Liberals got up to 25% in the 2016 by-election, surging in Medicine Hat due to their local star candidate Stan Sakamoto. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Glen Motz.

The floor crossing SoCred? Bud Olson. Olson was first elected in 1957, joining a caucus of 13 Alberta SoCreds. He lost in 1958 when John Diefenbaker swept the province but didn't have a tough time getting back in 1962, but was just one of two Alberta SoCreds, as their support was now largely in Quebec. He crossed the floor to the Liberals in 1967 as the English wing was dying off (Olson was just one of four non-Quebec SoCreds in a caucus of 30). He became minister of agriculture in Pierre Trudeau's first cabinet. He went on to lose in 1972, but was appointed to the senate in 1977 as well as back into cabinet in 1980. From 1996-2000 he served as the Lieutenant Governor of Alberta. He passed away in 2002 in Medicine Hat. In 2019, this seat was 25/34 in Alberta and 327/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is quite good, county names are typical in Alberta and Medicine Hat is a large urban centre. The shape is okay, not a huge fan of the way it hugs Lethbridge like that, it could easily be built north and take Newell County and Brooks. As for individuality, how many ridings can say they've had an MP, Senator, Minister, and Lieutenant Governor represent them?

Tomorrow we're back in Quebec with Mégantic–L'Érable!

Markham—Unionville (Ontario) 176/338

 Markham—Unionville (Ontario)

Today we're back with Markham—Unionville!

Markham—Unionville has existed as a riding since 2003, created from Markham. The population of the riding was 128,308 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Markham (338,503 in 2021) and contains the neighbourhoods of Unionville, Berczy Village, and Cachet. The riding was 65.6% Chinese, the most Chinese in the country. 

Politically, this seat trended in a certain direction until surprisingly bouncing back in 2021. While this seat was not remotely in its current form until 2015, this seat would've voted for the Liberals until 2011 when the Conservatives swept the York Region. In 2021, the seat swung 10 points towards the Liberals, giving them this seat that wasn't on their radar. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Paul Chiang.

Former MP Bob Saroya has been an active candidate around the GTA. In 2008, he ran against Kirsty Duncan in Etobicoke North, taking the seat closer than it had been since 1988. In 2011, he ran against past minister John McCallum in today's seat, losing by just 1,695 votes. In 2015, this was the only seat picked up from the Liberals. In 2019, this seat was 37/121 in Ontario and 104/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Unionville is a large neighbourhood. The shape is also very good, clean shape. As for individuality, very interesting swing that happened in 2021 in this and other large Chinese ridings.

Tomorrow we'll be back with Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner!