Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) 208/338

Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario)

Today we're back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South!

Northumberland–Peterborough South has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Durham, Northumberland—Quinte West and Peterborough. The population of the riding was 118,756 in 2021. The population centers are Cobourg (20,519 in 2021), Port Hope (17,294 in 2021), and Brighton (12,108 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a good example of a Conservative trending seat that went for the Liberals in 2015. Liberal Kim Rudd ran in the former Northumberland riding in 2011, but won by almost 3 points in 2015, mostly thanks to her support in the lakeshore communities. She held her own in 2019, not losing as much support as other Eastern Ontario Liberal candidates. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Philip Lawrence. 

This riding was relatively untouched in the proposed map the Ontario Federal Electoral Boundaries commission tabled on August 19th, 2022. The riding would gain half of Cavan-Monaghan, specifically the area south of Highway 115. The riding would also lose the Alderville First Nation Reserve. The report is expected to be released by February 9th, 2023. This seat was 10/121 in Ontario and 35/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, the riding is based in Northumberland County and contains part of Peterborough County. The shape is also pretty good, follows the county boundary while tacking on some extra pieces. As for individuality, Eastern Ontario is another breed where the Liberals still get 30+ in "rural" ridings (I know this is not remotely rural, but it sure isn't urban).

Tomorrow, we're up north in Northwest Territories!