Markham—Thornhill (Ontario) 175/338

 Markham—Thornhill (Ontario)

Today we're still in Markham with Markham—Thornhill!

Markham—Thornhill has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Markham—Unionville and Thornhill. The population of the riding was 97,150 in 2021. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Thornhill, Milliken, and Box Grove. Both Milliken and Thornhill are shared with other municipalities (Thornhill with Vaughan, Milliken with Toronto).

Politically, this was the only York Region to vote Liberal in 2011 and has remained the safest Liberal seat in the region since. The former riding (Markham—Unionville) started its life in 2004 as a 66% Liberal seat, ending up in 2011 as a 39% Liberal seat, beating the Conservatives by just 1,695 votes. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Minister of International Trade, Export Promotion, Small Business and Economic Development Mary Ng.

Ng was elected in a by-election on April 3rd, 2017, filling the seat vacated by John McCallum after he resigned to become Ambassador to China. Four other by-elections occurred that day: Saint-Laurent (Stéphane Dion resigned to become Ambassador to Germany), Calgary Midnapore (Jason Kenney resigned to run for Alberta PC leader), Calgary Heritage (Stephen Harper resigned after serving in opposition after nine years as Prime Minister), and Ottawa—Vanier (Mauril Bélanger passed away on August 15th, 2016). None of these seats changed hands, all five by-elections were very status quo for their respective ridings. In 2019, this seat was 75/121 in Ontario and 182/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Thornhill is an important community in York Region. The shape is nice, interesting how skinny it is. As for individuality, it's hard to find a York Region riding that has lost population between censuses.

Tomorrow we're finishing our Markham adventure in Markham—Unionville!

Markham—Stouffville (Ontario) 174/338

 Markham—Stouffville (Ontario)

Today we're in York Region with Markham—Stouffville!

Markham—Stouffville has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Markham—Unionville and Oak Ridges—Markham. The population of the riding was 135,944 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Markham (338,503 in 2021) and the town of Whitchurch-Stouffville (49,864 in 2021).

Politically, like all of York Region, this riding is a Liberal/Conservative race. The Conservatives typically do best in the Whitchurch-Stouffville part of the riding, with the Liberals taking the edge in the Markham part of the riding. In 2019, former Liberal MP-turned Independent Jane Philpott received 20% in the riding, doing well in Whitchurch-Stouffville. This riding is currently held by Liberal MP and Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario Helena Jaczek. 

Let's take a look at that ministerial portfolio. In Canada, we have seven federal regional development agencies focused on addressing economic challenges in each of the seven agencies: Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Southern Ontario, Northern Ontario, the Prairies, British Columbia, and the Territories. Each of these RDA's has a minister responsible, each of which is from their respective regions, barring Dan Vandal, who represents a Winnipeg riding and is responsible for the north. In 2019, this seat was 28/121 in Ontario and 84/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is very good, for obvious reasons. The shape is okay, I do wish it didn't wrap around the way it did. As for individuality, the riding is on par with most of the York Region.

Tomorrow we'll be back in Markham with Markham—Thornhill!

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin (Quebec) 173/338

 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin (Quebec)

Today we're in Laval with Marc-Aurèle-Fortin!

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Laval Centre, Terrebonne—Blainville, Laval East and Rivière-des-Mille-Îles. The population of the riding was 104,636 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Laval and contains the neighbourhoods of Sainte-Rose, Auteuil, and Fabreville.

Politically, this riding is the most sovereigntist riding in Laval. Since the Bloc first contested in 1993, they have had their best performances here. However, due to the Liberals' dominance in urban centres, they have held the seat since 2015 after a four year stint with the NDP. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Yves Robillard.

Provincially, this seat has taken a turn away from sovereigntists. The PQ has lost the seat before, but by closer margins (see 1989, 2007, and 2008). In 2018, the CAQ picked up the riding, with the PQ falling to third for the first time ever. With the way things are trending, the CAQ are slated to pick up all the Laval seats but Chomedey in 2022. In 2019, this seat was 28/78 in Quebec and 114/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is not good. Slightly better than a politician's name, but still not a fan of Quebec historical names. The shape is really good, all the Laval ridings have nice shapes. As for individuality, interesting how it turned to the Liberals so hard in 2015.

Tomorrow we start our Markham journey in Markham—Stouffville!

Manicouagan (Quebec) 172/338

 Manicouagan (Quebec)

Today we're in eastern Quebec with Manicouagan!

Manicouagan has existed as a riding since 1966, created from Charlevoix and Saguenay. The population of the riding was 88,525 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Sept-Îles (24,569 in 2021), Baie-Comeau (20,687 in 2021), and Port-Cartier (6,516 in 2021). The riding is not contiguous, with the communities of Schefferville and Kawawachikamach detached from the rest of the riding.

Politically, this seat has been Bloc for all but four years since the Bloc was created. It was won very easily by the Liberals pre-1984, but swung by a staggering 56% in 1984 towards the PC's. There was a similar staggering swing towards the Bloc in 1993, swinging 55%. This seat swung 44% toward the NDP in 2011, the second highest in Quebec. The seat is currently held by Bloc MP Marilène Gill.

In 1984, MP and Progressive Conservative MP Brian Mulroney won his seat here, along with much of the country, rural and urban. Mulroney had been elected in a by-election in Central Nova in August 1983 following his party leadership win in June 1983. Mulroney's PCs were elected to a large majority government in 1984, the last time a party won more than 50% of the ballots cast. In 2019, this seat was 65/78 in Quebec and 275/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, might honestly be one of my favourite Quebec names: regional county municipality as well as a large reservoir created by an asteroid? Love it. The shape is okay, not really a fan of non-contiguous, but they usually have to do with municipal boundaries. As for individuality, this riding sure loves to swing and then stop for a rest.

See you tomorrow in Marc-Aurèle Fortin!

Malpeque (Prince Edward Island) 171/338

 Malpeque (Prince Edward Island)

Today we're in our final PEI riding with Malpeque!

Malpeque has existed as a riding since 1968, created from Prince and Queen's. The population of the riding was 39,731 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Cornwall (6,574 in 2021), Kensington (1,812 in 2021), and Miltonvale Park (1,196 in 2021). Like the other two rural PEI ridings, this riding is named for Malpeque Bay.

Politically, this seat has been Liberal since 1988. There have been recent close calls, including the Atlantic PC surge of '97, the last two elections that gave us Harper governments, and the 2021 election. The Greens received 26% and second place in 2019, building off provincial success in the area. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Heath MacDonald.

Provincially, both Premier Dennis King and Leader of the Official Opposition Peter Bevan-Baker hold seats here, bordering each other. Both are historic in their own way. Dennis King took the PC's back to government, winning the first minority government in PEI history (it has turned into a majority since). Peter Bevan-Baker lead the PEI Green Party to both party status and became the first Canadian Green Official Opposition. In 2019, this seat was 2/4 in PEI and 136/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is okay, Malpeque Bay is split between Egmont and Malpeque. The shape is good, don’t really know how else you draw PEI ridings. As for individuality, having the two current main party leaders here is pretty cool.

See you tomorrow in Manicouagan! 

Madawaska—Restigouche (New Brunswick) 170/338

 Madawaska—Restigouche (New Brunswick)

Today we're in New Brunswick with Madawaska—Restigouche!

Madawaska—Restigouche has existed as a riding since 1997. The population of the riding was 60,184 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Edmundston (16,437 in 2021), Campbellton (7,047 in 2021), and Dalhousie (3,223 in 2021). 

Politically, this seat is Liberal unless the Conservatives do well in the Atlantic provinces. The seat flipped to the PC's after being won by the Liberals by almost 60 points in 1993. The seat was Liberal from 2000-2011, although it was quite narrow in 2006. Former MP Bernard Valcourt won the seat in 2011, returning to Parliament after his 1993 loss. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP René Arseneault.

Despite the New Brunswick Liberal Association's weakened position after the 2020 election, the seats they hold in this riding are safe no matter how weak the party support is. What's the reason for this? Madawaska County reported a 94% French speaking population and Restigouche County reported a 65% French speaking population from the 2016 census. In 2020, the Liberals only won one seat outside a county with a less than 40% French speaking population. In 2019, this seat was 7/10 in New Brunswick and 207/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is perfect, it does include solely Madawaska and Restigouche counties. The shape, again, is perfect for the same reasons. As for individuality, I'm surprised how it flipped in 2011, despite the Liberals experiencing a surge the election before.

See you tomorrow in Malpeque!

Louis-Saint-Laurent (Quebec) 169/338

 Louis-Saint-Laurent (Quebec)

Today we're in Louis-Saint-Laurent!

Louis-Saint-Laurent has existed as a riding since 2003, created from Portneuf and Quebec East. The population of the riding was 123,123 in 2021. The riding contains the northwest part of Quebec City as well as the Wendake Indian Reserve (2,200 in 2021) and the city of L'Ancienne-Lorette (16,970 in 2021). 

Politically, this seat is a bright spot for Conservatives in Quebec. While the NDP did win every seat in the city in 2011, the Conservatives were just 1,295 votes away from holding this seat, making it an easy 2015 pick-up. As with the provincial CAQ, the seat is so safe because of the split opposition, both the Bloc and Liberals have residual support from nearby ridings, making this seat an easy hold. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Gérard Deltell.

Gérard Deltell is surely another reason the seat is as safe as it is. Deltell was the final leader of the Action démocratique du Québec before the party merged with the CAQ in 2012. He lead the party after they had their worst popular vote performance since 1998. This lead to the 2012 merger, after polls showed the CAQ was rising in popularity and the ADQ suffering after experiencing a rise in support. Deltell would serve until 2015 as a CAQ MNA. In 2019, this seat was 47/78 in Quebec and 210/338 in Canada by margin.

I don't like the name. I understand that the 12th Prime Minister represented this area, but I still despise Quebec's non-regional names. The shape is fine, it follows municipal boundaries, but still is a little gross. As for individuality, I appreciate how swingy it was until Deltell came along.

See you soon in Madawaska—Restigouche!