Madawaska—Restigouche (New Brunswick) 170/338

 Madawaska—Restigouche (New Brunswick)

Today we're in New Brunswick with Madawaska—Restigouche!

Madawaska—Restigouche has existed as a riding since 1997. The population of the riding was 60,184 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Edmundston (16,437 in 2021), Campbellton (7,047 in 2021), and Dalhousie (3,223 in 2021). 

Politically, this seat is Liberal unless the Conservatives do well in the Atlantic provinces. The seat flipped to the PC's after being won by the Liberals by almost 60 points in 1993. The seat was Liberal from 2000-2011, although it was quite narrow in 2006. Former MP Bernard Valcourt won the seat in 2011, returning to Parliament after his 1993 loss. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP René Arseneault.

Despite the New Brunswick Liberal Association's weakened position after the 2020 election, the seats they hold in this riding are safe no matter how weak the party support is. What's the reason for this? Madawaska County reported a 94% French speaking population and Restigouche County reported a 65% French speaking population from the 2016 census. In 2020, the Liberals only won one seat outside a county with a less than 40% French speaking population. In 2019, this seat was 7/10 in New Brunswick and 207/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is perfect, it does include solely Madawaska and Restigouche counties. The shape, again, is perfect for the same reasons. As for individuality, I'm surprised how it flipped in 2011, despite the Liberals experiencing a surge the election before.

See you tomorrow in Malpeque!