Miramichi—Grand Lake (New Brunswick) 181/338

 Miramichi—Grand Lake (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with Miramichi—Grand Lake!

Miramichi—Grand Lake has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, renamed from just Miramichi (along with some minor geographical redistribution). The population of the riding was 57,520 in 2021. The largest communities are Miramichi (17,692 in 2021), Minto (2,234 in 2021), and Neguac (1,692 in 2021). 

Politically, this seat has been Liberal until the Conservatives do well in rural Atlantic Canada. In 1984, Brian Mulroney won all but seven of the thirty two seats. In 2008, the Conservatives made headway into AC, which made it easy to win every province but Newfoundland in 2011. In 2021, there was a realignment in AC, with much of rural Atlantic Canada getting closer for the Conservatives, flipping two seats in Nova Scotia, one seat in Newfoundland, and this seat in New Brunswick. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Jake Stewart. 

Jake Stewart and his Liberal opponent Lisa Harris both vacated seats from the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly to run for federal office, their subsequent by-elections are due on June 20th, 2022. With that in mind, Stewart's former seat is safe, it was a 20 point margin between him and the second place PANB (which has since merged with the PC's). Harris' seat is a little trickier. The PANB+PC total is more than her winning percentage last time, but that is by just 88 votes, and doesn't account for current polling, which has the Liberals neck in neck with the PC's (we have yet to receive a post-merger poll). In 2019, this seat was 1/10 in New Brunswick and 10/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, big urban centre + big lake is a good name in my books. The shape is also good, I like how a lot of rural Atlantic Canada ridings look. As for individuality, interesting how this riding didn't flip in 1997 but did in 2021.

See you soon with Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon!