Nepean (Ontario) 196/338

 Nepean (Ontario) 

Today we're in Nepean!

Nepean has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, having formerly existed from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 132,769 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Ottawa and contains the former city of Nepean, including the neighbourhoods of Bells Corners, Barrhaven, and Merivale Gardens.

Politically, this seat has a Liberal history (as does most of Ottawa), but has gone to the Conservatives as recently as 2011. The seat usually has lukewarm Conservative support, but mostly concentrated around Barrhaven. The NDP aren't much of a factor, but they have doubled their vote share since 2015, thanks to areas close to the urban centre of Ottawa. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Chandra Arya.

Tomorrow (June 2nd, 2022) is Ontario's 43rd General election, and while this riding was a large win for the PC's, we're in a very different situation this time around. According to polling data, the PC's have lost around 2-3% of their vote share, while the Liberals are up about 6-7%, making this seat more competitive for the Liberals, especially due to the faltering NDP, down about 10%. However, even in the best of Liberal elections, the PC's have always won by pretty good margins. In 2019, this seat was 44/121 in Ontario 115/338 in Ontario by margin.

The name is great, it is straight up just Nepean. The shape is also good, maybe not the biggest fan of the way the Kanata riding curves into this one, but that is unavoidable. As for individuality, not hard to find strong PC provincial ridings and Liberal federal ridings in the same region.

Tomorrow we'll be off because I'm not sure if y'all want to hear about New Brunswick Southwest on June 2nd, but you WILL hear about it on June 3rd.