Nickel Belt (Ontario) 203/338

 Nickel Belt (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Nickel Belt has existed as a riding since 1952, created from Algoma East, Algoma—Manitoulin, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sudbury and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 94,947 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Greater Sudbury (166,004 in 2021, shared with Sudbury), West Nipissing (14,583 in 2021), and French River (2,828 in 2021). As of the 2016 Census, this riding was >50% bilingual, while the Ontario average was just over 11%.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/NDP fight, but that isn't to say the races have been particularly close. In the last sixty years, it has only been closer than five points in 2006, 1979, and 1965. However, the seat has become friendlier to Conservatives in recent years, they snuck into second place in 2021, helped by their performance in Greater Sudbury. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Marc Serré.

The Serré name goes pretty far back in Northern Ontario and even in Nickel Belt itself. Marc Serré is the son of one-term Nickel Belt Liberal MP Gaetan Serré, winning when all but one seat in Northern Ontario went to the Liberals as part of Pierre Trudeau's first majority government. Interestingly in his re-election bid in 1972, there were over 4,700 rejected ballots, which could've put him over, but he withdrew his request for them to be counted after seeing a sample. Gaetan Serré's brother, Benoît Serré, served as MP for Timiskaming—French River and Timiskaming—Cochrane from 1993-2004. Both Gaetan and Benoît Serré passed away recently, in November 2017 and May 2019 respectively. In 2019, this seat was 23/121 in Ontario and 68/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Northern Ontario and especially Greater Sudbury are nickel-rich and historically has been a big attraction for mining jobs (in 2016, 17% of the men in the riding were miners). The shape is good, I like the provincial version better that is completely surrounding the Sudbury riding. As for individuality, the riding likes to bounce between the Liberals and NDP but the Conservatives are rising, which is common for Northern Ontario.

Tomorrow, we're one riding east with Nipissing—Timiskaming!