North Island—Powell River (British Columbia) 205/338

 North Island—Powell River (British Columbia)

Today we're starting a little trip through BC's three regions with North Island—Powell River!

North Island—Powell River has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after existing from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 111,825 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Campbell River (35,519 in 2021), Comox (14,806 in 2021), and Powell River (13,943 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has typically been an NDP/Conservative marginal seat. The Conservatives have a solid base in Campbell River and in the north of the riding, while the NDP do well in the Comox Valley and in Powell River. In 2006 when the Conservatives formed government, the NDP defeated incumbent MP John Duncan by just 630 votes, but lost by 2,485 votes in 2008. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Rachel Blaney.

It's fitting that we're discussing Vancouver Island on the day that Premier John Horgan announces that he isn't seeking another term as Premier of British Columbia. While I could discuss leadership potential, I'll instead discuss one of the MLA's that make up most of the area. Ronna-Rae Leonard has represented Courtenay-Comox since 2017, winning a seat that hadn't been held by the party since 2001. She actually ran for the federal NDP in 2011 in Vancouver Island North, losing by just 1,827 votes. In 2019, this seat was 9/42 in BC and 51/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, quite descriptive of the region. The shape is good, I hope eventually the entire Comox Valley will be intact. As for individuality, this is definitely a test of the realignment, but it also has gone to the left to a certain extent.

Tomorrow we'll be in the Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario) 204/338

 Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Nipissing—Timiskaming has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Nipissing and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 89,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of North Bay (52,662 in 2021), Temiskaming Shores (9,634 in 2021), and East Ferris (4,946 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is usually a Liberal seat with solid Conservative support. In fact, in the past 100 years, it has only been won by Conservatives twice: in 1984 and 2011, both Conservative majorities. Otherwise, this was one of the better results for the PPC in 2019, due to North Bay city councillor Mark King running for the party, receiving almost 2,500 votes. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Speaker of the House Anthony Rota.

Anthony Rota has served in the House of Commons for all but four years since 2004, losing just once in 2011 by just 18 votes. In 2019, Rota was elected the 37th speaker of the House of Commons, the first from Northern Ontario since James Jerome in the 1970's. It should also be noted that Ontario Premier Mike Harris represented this seat from 1981-2002, serving as premier from 1995-2002. In 2019, this seat was 48/121 in Ontario and 123/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, it's almost entirely contained within the Nipissing and Timiskaming Territorial Districts. The shape is fine for the most part, I just wish the Nipissing 10 appendage in the west was a bit cleaner. As for individuality, it's surprising that the seat doesn't flip more than it does. 

Tomorrow we'll be back on the west coast with North Island—Powell River!

Nickel Belt (Ontario) 203/338

 Nickel Belt (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Nickel Belt has existed as a riding since 1952, created from Algoma East, Algoma—Manitoulin, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sudbury and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 94,947 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Greater Sudbury (166,004 in 2021, shared with Sudbury), West Nipissing (14,583 in 2021), and French River (2,828 in 2021). As of the 2016 Census, this riding was >50% bilingual, while the Ontario average was just over 11%.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/NDP fight, but that isn't to say the races have been particularly close. In the last sixty years, it has only been closer than five points in 2006, 1979, and 1965. However, the seat has become friendlier to Conservatives in recent years, they snuck into second place in 2021, helped by their performance in Greater Sudbury. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Marc Serré.

The Serré name goes pretty far back in Northern Ontario and even in Nickel Belt itself. Marc Serré is the son of one-term Nickel Belt Liberal MP Gaetan Serré, winning when all but one seat in Northern Ontario went to the Liberals as part of Pierre Trudeau's first majority government. Interestingly in his re-election bid in 1972, there were over 4,700 rejected ballots, which could've put him over, but he withdrew his request for them to be counted after seeing a sample. Gaetan Serré's brother, Benoît Serré, served as MP for Timiskaming—French River and Timiskaming—Cochrane from 1993-2004. Both Gaetan and Benoît Serré passed away recently, in November 2017 and May 2019 respectively. In 2019, this seat was 23/121 in Ontario and 68/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Northern Ontario and especially Greater Sudbury are nickel-rich and historically has been a big attraction for mining jobs (in 2016, 17% of the men in the riding were miners). The shape is good, I like the provincial version better that is completely surrounding the Sudbury riding. As for individuality, the riding likes to bounce between the Liberals and NDP but the Conservatives are rising, which is common for Northern Ontario.

Tomorrow, we're one riding east with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Niagara West (Ontario) 202/338

 Niagara West (Ontario)

Today we're back in the Niagara Region with Niagara West!

Niagara West has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Niagara West—Glanbrook, St. Catharines and Welland. The population of the riding was 96,946 in 2021. The riding contains the towns of Grimsby (28,883 in 2021), Lincoln (25,719 in 2021), and Pelham (18,192 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a classic rural seat that was Liberal during the Reform/PC split years. The rural areas leaned further and further towards the Reform party from 1993-2000, but the Liberals did really well in the urban centres of Grimsby and Pelham. Even when the Conservatives picked the seat up in 2004, the Liberals still overwhelmingly won Pelham. The seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Dean Allison.

Provincially, this seat was held by PC MPP, PC Leader, and Leader of the Opposition Tim Hudak. In 1995, he won the seat by just under 1,200 votes, making him the second youngest MPP, just after John Baird. He served in both Mike Harris and Ernie Eaves' cabinets. In 2009, he won the PC Leadership over Frank Klees, Christine Elliot, and Randy Hillier. He successfully held the Liberal government to a minority in 2011, putting himself in a good position to form government next time around. However, due to some missteps by his campaign, he fell out of favour, leading to a Liberal majority and his resignation in July 2014. In 2019, this seat was 47/121 in Ontario and 122/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is quite good, I think I'd even be okay with something like Lincoln-Pelham. The shape is also great, not the biggest fan of the municipal boundaries on the east, but that's not the biggest issue. As for individuality, it's a Conservative rural Ontario seat that's under populated, not too surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Niagara Falls (Ontario) 201/338

 Niagara Falls (Ontario)

Today we're in Niagara Falls!

Niagara Falls has existed as a riding since 1953. The population of the riding was 146,404 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Niagara Falls (94,415 in 2021), Fort Erie (32,901 in 2021), and Niagara-on-the-Lake (19,088 in 2021). The riding grew by about 18,000 people since the 2011 Census, the most this far south in Ontario.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/Conservative swing district, but has had its moments of safety for each party. Between 1965 and 1988 the seat was represented by a new MP each election, for a total of seven MPs. While the conservative parties were divided from 1993-2000, the riding was won by the Liberals. As soon as the reunified, the riding went for the Conservatives, where it has been since. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli.

From 1984-1993 and 2004-2019, the seat was represented by Conservative MP Rob Nicholson. When Kim Campbell became prime minister, she appointed Nicholson to be minister for science and small business. When the Harper Conservatives went into government, he was appointed Government House Leader. He held a few more cabinet positions after this, namely minister of justice, minister of defence, and minister of foreign affairs. In 2019, this seat was 9/121 and 28/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, central location, largest population centre, and a well known name. The shape is also good, I'm sure that it'll lose either Niagara-on-the-Lake or Fort Erie next redistribution. As for individuality, interesting that a riding so historically close has gotten more reliable in recent years.

Tomorrow we'll be a few ridings west with Niagara West!

Niagara Centre (Ontario) 200/338

 Niagara Centre (Ontario)

Today we have our 200th riding with Niagara Centre!

Niagara Centre has existed as a riding for all but nine years since Confederation. The population of the riding was 119,809 in 2021. The riding contains the cities of Welland (55,750 in 2021), Thorold (23,816 in 2021), and Port Colborne (20,033 in 2021). It also contains the southern part of St. Catharines.

Politically, this seat has good news for the Liberals, NDP, and the Conservatives. For the Liberals, they've held it for all but eleven years since 1935. For the NDP, they have a solid base here that fluctuates, but manifested in a 2008/2011 win. For the Conservatives, they've gotten very close in recent years, including finishing just 300 votes behind the NDP in 2008. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Vance Badawey.

With the Ontario provincial election behind us, there was a good expectation that the provincial NDP would lose the three seats that they hold in the Niagara Region. Despite the NDP losing ground across the province, their incumbents held on, with Jennie Stevens increasing her vote share in St. Catharines. That isn't to say they were easy wins, Niagara Centre was won by just 854 votes. In 2019, this seat was 12/121 in Ontario and 40/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, I don't mind it, I do think that with the rate of growth in Thorold that naming it Welland-Thorold in the future would be appropriate. The shape is okay, not exactly the cleanest, but it does follow the municipal lines. As for individuality, this riding is cool in the sense that it's definitely in a transition period.

Tomorrow we're in Niagara Falls!

Newmarket—Aurora (Ontario) 199/338

 Newmarket—Aurora (Ontario)

Today we're back in the GTA with Newmarket—Aurora!

Newmarket—Aurora has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 127,134 in 2021. The riding contains the city of Newmarket (87,942 in 2021), Aurora (62,057 in 2021, shared with Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill), and East Gwillimbury (34,637 in 2021, shared with York—Simcoe).

Politically, this seat is a typical Liberal-Conservative York Region race, even including a floor-crossing from the Conservatives to the Liberals. There is usually sizable NDP support comparative to the region, in 2019 and 2020 this was the one riding where the NDP got over 10%. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Tony Van Bynen.

A name that political junkies in Ontario should know the name of Dorian Baxter. Dorian Baxter has run in elections since 2004, mostly in Newmarket—Aurora, but has run around the province in a few by-elections. His best performance in vote total was in the 2014 Newmarket mayoral election when he got 1,407 votes and 7% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 16/121 in Ontario and 50/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, I don't see any other way to make it better. The shape is good too, it's just a straight up rectangle. As for individuality, it's a Liberal/Conservative race in York Region, shocker. 

Tomorrow we'll be back in Niagara Centre!

New Westminster—Burnaby (British Columbia) 198/338

 New Westminster—Burnaby (British Columbia)

Today we're back in Metro Vancouver with New Westminster—Burnaby!

New Westminster—Burnaby has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after previously being used from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 125,253 in 2021. The riding contains the city of New Westminster (78,916 in 2021) and Burnaby. This is the first time since 2000 that New Westminster has stayed completely intact during a redistribution.

Politically, New Westminster has generally been friendly to the NDP, even during the 1993 and 1997 elections, when the NDP were in a weakened state, they were still within 2,000 votes of winning the seat. From 2004-2015, New Westminster was split down the middle, however, because Coquitlam is also quite friendly to the NDP, it didn't affect results too much. The seat is currently represented by NDP MP Peter Julian.

On May 2nd, 2022, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for BC released their proposal for the new federal electoral boundaries, adding a new riding for a total of 43. Currently, Burnaby is split between three ridings, New Westminster is contained in one. Under the proposed boundaries, Burnaby is split between six ridings and New Westminster two, including one across the Fraser River into Surrey. There are public hearings currently occurring across the country, as these boundaries aren't set in stone. In 2019, this seat was 32/42 in BC and 199/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, no criticism here. The shape is also pretty good, I don't really know how else to draw it otherwise. As for individuality, this part of the Lower Mainland is pretty friendly to the NDP, provincially and federally.

Tomorrow we'll be back in the GTA with Newmarket—Aurora!

New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick) 197/338

 New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with New Brunswick Southwest!

New Brunswick Southwest has existed as a riding since 2000, but has existed in some form since Confederation. The population was 67,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Grand Bay-Westfield (4,967 in 2021), St. Stephen (4,510 in 2021), and St. George (1,579 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been Conservative for all but eight years since 1968. The two elections where the Liberals won the Conservatives were weakened in Atlantic Canada (1993 with the PC/Reform split, 2015 with the Liberal sweep). The riding also elected their first female MP in 2015. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP John Williamson.

If the revived PANB were to have any chance to break through in New Brunswick, it'd be in the Saint-Croix. In an election where the PANB lost a seat and 4% of their popular vote, the PANB candidate surged 15 points and finished just under 13 points behind the PC candidate. However, it'd be tough for the PANB to come back from their weakened position, especially with the Liberals rising in popularity, due to holding the seat just six years ago. In 2019, this seat was 8/10 in New Brunswick and 222/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is decent, I'd prefer if they stuck with county names. The shape is not great, I wish it didn't have that appendage that sticks into the Fundy Royal riding. As for individuality, it's a longtime PC riding that went Liberal in 1993 and 2015, how surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be back in my neck of the woods with New Westminster—Burnaby!

Nepean (Ontario) 196/338

 Nepean (Ontario) 

Today we're in Nepean!

Nepean has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, having formerly existed from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 132,769 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Ottawa and contains the former city of Nepean, including the neighbourhoods of Bells Corners, Barrhaven, and Merivale Gardens.

Politically, this seat has a Liberal history (as does most of Ottawa), but has gone to the Conservatives as recently as 2011. The seat usually has lukewarm Conservative support, but mostly concentrated around Barrhaven. The NDP aren't much of a factor, but they have doubled their vote share since 2015, thanks to areas close to the urban centre of Ottawa. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Chandra Arya.

Tomorrow (June 2nd, 2022) is Ontario's 43rd General election, and while this riding was a large win for the PC's, we're in a very different situation this time around. According to polling data, the PC's have lost around 2-3% of their vote share, while the Liberals are up about 6-7%, making this seat more competitive for the Liberals, especially due to the faltering NDP, down about 10%. However, even in the best of Liberal elections, the PC's have always won by pretty good margins. In 2019, this seat was 44/121 in Ontario 115/338 in Ontario by margin.

The name is great, it is straight up just Nepean. The shape is also good, maybe not the biggest fan of the way the Kanata riding curves into this one, but that is unavoidable. As for individuality, not hard to find strong PC provincial ridings and Liberal federal ridings in the same region.

Tomorrow we'll be off because I'm not sure if y'all want to hear about New Brunswick Southwest on June 2nd, but you WILL hear about it on June 3rd.