Newmarket—Aurora (Ontario) 199/338

 Newmarket—Aurora (Ontario)

Today we're back in the GTA with Newmarket—Aurora!

Newmarket—Aurora has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 127,134 in 2021. The riding contains the city of Newmarket (87,942 in 2021), Aurora (62,057 in 2021, shared with Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill), and East Gwillimbury (34,637 in 2021, shared with York—Simcoe).

Politically, this seat is a typical Liberal-Conservative York Region race, even including a floor-crossing from the Conservatives to the Liberals. There is usually sizable NDP support comparative to the region, in 2019 and 2020 this was the one riding where the NDP got over 10%. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Tony Van Bynen.

A name that political junkies in Ontario should know the name of Dorian Baxter. Dorian Baxter has run in elections since 2004, mostly in Newmarket—Aurora, but has run around the province in a few by-elections. His best performance in vote total was in the 2014 Newmarket mayoral election when he got 1,407 votes and 7% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 16/121 in Ontario and 50/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, I don't see any other way to make it better. The shape is good too, it's just a straight up rectangle. As for individuality, it's a Liberal/Conservative race in York Region, shocker. 

Tomorrow we'll be back in Niagara Centre!

New Westminster—Burnaby (British Columbia) 198/338

 New Westminster—Burnaby (British Columbia)

Today we're back in Metro Vancouver with New Westminster—Burnaby!

New Westminster—Burnaby has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after previously being used from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 125,253 in 2021. The riding contains the city of New Westminster (78,916 in 2021) and Burnaby. This is the first time since 2000 that New Westminster has stayed completely intact during a redistribution.

Politically, New Westminster has generally been friendly to the NDP, even during the 1993 and 1997 elections, when the NDP were in a weakened state, they were still within 2,000 votes of winning the seat. From 2004-2015, New Westminster was split down the middle, however, because Coquitlam is also quite friendly to the NDP, it didn't affect results too much. The seat is currently represented by NDP MP Peter Julian.

On May 2nd, 2022, the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for BC released their proposal for the new federal electoral boundaries, adding a new riding for a total of 43. Currently, Burnaby is split between three ridings, New Westminster is contained in one. Under the proposed boundaries, Burnaby is split between six ridings and New Westminster two, including one across the Fraser River into Surrey. There are public hearings currently occurring across the country, as these boundaries aren't set in stone. In 2019, this seat was 32/42 in BC and 199/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, no criticism here. The shape is also pretty good, I don't really know how else to draw it otherwise. As for individuality, this part of the Lower Mainland is pretty friendly to the NDP, provincially and federally.

Tomorrow we'll be back in the GTA with Newmarket—Aurora!

New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick) 197/338

 New Brunswick Southwest (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with New Brunswick Southwest!

New Brunswick Southwest has existed as a riding since 2000, but has existed in some form since Confederation. The population was 67,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Grand Bay-Westfield (4,967 in 2021), St. Stephen (4,510 in 2021), and St. George (1,579 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been Conservative for all but eight years since 1968. The two elections where the Liberals won the Conservatives were weakened in Atlantic Canada (1993 with the PC/Reform split, 2015 with the Liberal sweep). The riding also elected their first female MP in 2015. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP John Williamson.

If the revived PANB were to have any chance to break through in New Brunswick, it'd be in the Saint-Croix. In an election where the PANB lost a seat and 4% of their popular vote, the PANB candidate surged 15 points and finished just under 13 points behind the PC candidate. However, it'd be tough for the PANB to come back from their weakened position, especially with the Liberals rising in popularity, due to holding the seat just six years ago. In 2019, this seat was 8/10 in New Brunswick and 222/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is decent, I'd prefer if they stuck with county names. The shape is not great, I wish it didn't have that appendage that sticks into the Fundy Royal riding. As for individuality, it's a longtime PC riding that went Liberal in 1993 and 2015, how surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be back in my neck of the woods with New Westminster—Burnaby!

Nepean (Ontario) 196/338

 Nepean (Ontario) 

Today we're in Nepean!

Nepean has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, having formerly existed from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 132,769 in 2021. The riding is in the city of Ottawa and contains the former city of Nepean, including the neighbourhoods of Bells Corners, Barrhaven, and Merivale Gardens.

Politically, this seat has a Liberal history (as does most of Ottawa), but has gone to the Conservatives as recently as 2011. The seat usually has lukewarm Conservative support, but mostly concentrated around Barrhaven. The NDP aren't much of a factor, but they have doubled their vote share since 2015, thanks to areas close to the urban centre of Ottawa. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Chandra Arya.

Tomorrow (June 2nd, 2022) is Ontario's 43rd General election, and while this riding was a large win for the PC's, we're in a very different situation this time around. According to polling data, the PC's have lost around 2-3% of their vote share, while the Liberals are up about 6-7%, making this seat more competitive for the Liberals, especially due to the faltering NDP, down about 10%. However, even in the best of Liberal elections, the PC's have always won by pretty good margins. In 2019, this seat was 44/121 in Ontario 115/338 in Ontario by margin.

The name is great, it is straight up just Nepean. The shape is also good, maybe not the biggest fan of the way the Kanata riding curves into this one, but that is unavoidable. As for individuality, not hard to find strong PC provincial ridings and Liberal federal ridings in the same region.

Tomorrow we'll be off because I'm not sure if y'all want to hear about New Brunswick Southwest on June 2nd, but you WILL hear about it on June 3rd.

Nanaimo–Ladysmith (BC) 195/338

 Nanaimo–Ladysmith (BC)

Today we're back on Vancouver Island with Nanaimo–Ladysmith!

Nanaimo–Ladysmith has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Nanaimo—Alberni and Nanaimo—Cowichan. The population of the riding was 134,509 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Nanaimo (99,863 in 2021), Ladysmith (8,990 in 2021), and Lantzville (3,817 in 2021).

Politically, this was one of the closest races in 2021 as well as one of the lowest vote shares for a winner. Once an NDP stronghold, the Greens took it in a by-election in 2019 and held it that year in the general election. However, the NDP rose due to the faltering Greens, causing them to win and the Conservatives place second in a riding they have historically done well. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Lisa Marie Barron.

Provincially, the MLA for Nanaimo is the former MP for Nanaimo–Ladysmith, from 2015-2019. She was elected in a by-election to represent Nanaimo, given a parliamentary secretary role in July 2019, and elevated to cabinet after the 2020 election. She was made minister of mental health and addictions. On the day this was posted (May 31st, 2022), BC became the first jurisdiction in North America to decriminalize simple possession of illicit drugs, up to 2.5 grams. There is still a long way to go and the announcement is 2 grams below what the BC government was wishing, but it is a step in the right direction in a province ravaged by the overdose crisis. In 2019, this seat was 20/42 in BC and 86/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Ladysmith is on the southeast of the riding, good reason to mention it. The shape is good, BC's regional district shapes are a bit wonky, but at least they're followed here. As for individuality, definitely quite individual, but it is on Vancouver Island, it's a miracle (or a curse) the Greens didn't win any other seats on Vancouver Island in 2019.

Tomorrow we'll be in Nepean for the penultimate day of the Ontario election!

Mount Royal (Quebec) 194/338

 Mount Royal (Quebec)

Today we're in Montreal with Mount Royal!

Mount Royal has existed as a riding since 1925, known as Mont-Royal in French (almost was the English name after the 2012 redistribution, but was changed back to Mount Royal). The population of the riding was 108,494 in 2021. The riding contains the cities of Côte-Saint-Luc (34,504 in 2021), Mont-Royal (20,953 in 2021), and Hampstead (7,037 in 2021).

Politically, former SoCred leader Réal Caouette was quite correct when he said that a mailbox could win the Liberal nomination in Mount Royal and still win election just because it was red. Even in wave elections across Quebec, the seat has remained steadfast in its support for the Liberals. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Anthony Housefather.

From 1965-1984, the seat was represented by Pierre Elliot Trudeau. In his first election as Liberal leader, Trudeau won this seat with 91% support, which was replicated provincially until. Trudeau would serve as Prime Minister until 1979 and from 1980 to 1984. Trudeau considered himself to be aligned with the NDP, however he didn't believe they'd be able to form government, so he ran for the Liberals. The NDP actually had their best performance in the riding in 1965 when Quebec President Charles Taylor received 30% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 61/78 in Quebec and 260/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, I wish more cities had as clearly defined boroughs (these are separate cities, but you know what I mean). The shape is also good, I like that it's remained relatively intact since 1968. As for individuality, this side of the island is so Liberal, but it's saved by the fact that PET served here.

Tomorrow we'll be on Vancouver Island with Nanaimo—Ladysmith!

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan) 193/338

 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan)

Today we’re in Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan!

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 80,547 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Moose Jaw (33,665 in 2021), Outlook (2,336 in 2021), and Lumsden (1,800 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been very Conservative since 2006, but it is hard to compare former results due to how much the riding boundaries have changed since then. Currently, the only place where non-Conservative parties are competitive is Moose Jaw and Whitecap 94. However, riding-wide there was still a 28 point different in the best of election years. This riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Fraser Tolmie. 

From 1940-1953, future Prime Minister John Diefenbaker represented Lake Centre. However, after the 1952 redistribution, it was abolished into four much less PC friendly ridings. To save face and have a better chance in 1953, he ran in the Prince Albert riding, which proved successful, as he served there until his death in 1979. In 2019, this seat was 9/14 in Saskatchewan and 312/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is okay, there's only one major urban centre and Lake Centre has been used in a riding name more times than not. The shape is good, I like how it looks like a rotation of Regina–Qu'Appelle. As for individuality, it's another rural Saskatchewan riding, but this one has a Prime Minister attached at least.

See you soon in Mount Royal!