Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix (Quebec) 21/338

 Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix (Quebec)

Today we're not too far from yesterday, with Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix.

Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix as a riding has existed since the 2012 redistribution, losing territory to Manicougan. The riding is Northeast of Quebec City and the population centers are La Malbaie (8,271 in 2016), Baie-Saint-Paul (7,146 in 2016), as well as the Northeast portion of Quebec City (531,902 in 2016). The riding also contains several islands in the St. Lawrence River.

Politically, the riding has been hard to pin down. Like many Quebec ridings, the seat has been held by three different parties in the past three elections. In situations like this, it could be due to retiring incumbents, but the incumbent ran and was defeated in 2011, 2015, and 2019. Due to the fast turn-over of parties, the races have recently gotten closer, going from a 20 point margin in 2008 to 6 points in 2019. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Quebecois MP Caroline Desbiens.

This seat was the last seat that 18th Prime Minister Brian Mulroney held while in Parliament and while Prime Minister. Mulroney actually held three different seats while in office, Central Nova from 1983-1984, Manicougan from 1984-1988, and Charlevoix 1988-1993. In 2019 the riding was 20/78 in Quebec and 63/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 2.2/10 - I don't have to explain myself.

Shape: 6.7/10 - It isn't as bad as it looks, the south follows the St. Lawrence and the Northeast follows Riviere Saguenay. But the area near Quebec City needs a little smoothing out.

Individuality: 6.6/10 - Political elasticity is always a plus, and fact that the riding gets more Conservative as you get into the city is kind of an opposite trend from the rest of the country.

Total: 15.5/30 (51.7%)

See you tomorrow in Beauport-Limoilou!

Beauce (Quebec) 20/338

 Beauce (Quebec)

Today we're back in Eastern Quebec with Beauce!

Beauce as a riding has existed since 1867, with the same name and fairly similar boundaries. It contains the Beauce region of Quebec, and is located Southeast of Quebec City. The population centers are Saint-Georges (31,173 in 2011), Sainte-Marie (13,565 in 2016), and Beauceville (6,354 in 2011). While there are population centers, a good portion of the riding is rural.

Politically, the riding has trended right in the past years. The last time the Liberals won the riding was in 2004 with 41%, just a 5 point margin over the Conservatives, who took the riding from the Liberals in 2006. One thing I find interesting is that the second place party has changed in the past 4 elections, going as follows: Bloc Quebecois, New Democratic Party, Liberal, People's Party. The riding is currently held by Conservative MP Richard Lehoux.

The riding had been represented by Gilles Bernier from 1984-1997, and later by his son, Maxime Bernier, from 2006-2019. Maxime Bernier, as you may know, is the leader of the People's Party of Canada, a new party as of 2018. The party, while not gaining any seats, had a sizable presence in the 2019 election, getting almost 300,000 votes. Bernier performed the best, getting 28.37% of the vote in his riding of Beauce. In 2019, the riding was 25/78 in Quebec and 99/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.6/10 - I really appreciate ridings that are named after regions rather than naming it after the largest municipality, even if it does have less than a third of the population.

Shape: 5.2/10 - The Southeast is not a factor, as it borders the US, but the rest could be cleaner, I wish it was less jagged.

Individuality: 6.4/10 - I do like ridings that are elastic, even if the party in power doesn't change that much. 

Total: 20.2/30 (67.3%)

See you tomorrow with (deep breath) Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix.

Beaches—East York (Ontario) 19/338

Beaches—East York (Ontario)

Today we have our first Toronto riding, Beaches—East York!

Beaches-East York was first used with similar boundaries in 1988 and adopted the current name in 1993. The riding is entirely encompassed in Toronto, and contains the neighbourhoods of The Beaches, Upper Beaches, O'Connor-Parkview, as well as portions of East Danforth and Old East York. This riding will start a trend of small and dense Toronto riding, Beaches-East York has an area of 17 square kilometers.

Politically, the riding has been held by the Liberals for the majority of the past 25 years. The only election in the past 25 years that the Liberals didn't win was in 2011, a historically bad election for the Liberals, when the riding swung almost 10 points to the NDP. However, the Liberals came back in full force in 2015, swinging the seat almost 20 points. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.

Since the 1988 election, the Conservative Party at the time has only won 20% of the vote in 5 out of the 10 elections, and 3 of those were from a combined total from the Progressive Conservatives and Alliance/Reform Parties. Another factor in this could be the 6 term MP Maria Minna, who had been Minister of International Cooperation until she was dropped from cabinet after some local controversy, but stayed in office until she was defeated in 2011. In 2019 the riding was 114/121 in Ontario and 280/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.4/10 - Good name, wish there was a more concise way to call it, but it's not that awful.

Shape: 7.6/10 - It follows the streets on the west and east, and the lake on the south, and the northern suburbs aren't awful, but it's just a little too messy for me.

Individuality: 4.6/10 - The swing back and forth between the NDP is really cool to me, but that's not that too uncommon in Toronto/population centers in 2011/2015.

Total: 20.6/30 (68.7%)

See you tomorrow in Quebec with Beauce!

Bay of Quinte (Ontario) 18/338

 Bay of Quinte (Ontario)

Today we're along the shores of Lake Ontario with Bay of Quinte!

Bay of Quinte was created in the 2012 redistribution from the ridings Prince Edward-Hastings and Northumberland-Quinte West. The riding contains Prince Edward (24,735 in 2016), Quinte West (43,577 in 2016), and most of Belleville (50,716 in 2016). Notable residents of the riding include Gord Downie and Avril Lavigne, as well as Prime Ministers Sir Mackenzie Bowell and Sir John A. Macdonald.

Politically, the riding is pretty split but leans Liberal in recent years due to the anchors of Belleville and the Prince Edward portion. The town of Trenton seems to be somewhat of a bellwether, only voting against the winning candidate nationally in 2006 and 2019 from the poll level data available. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Neil Ellis.

The riding has historically been a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives. Even in the 2011 election where the Liberals fell to low support and the NDP rose in support, the NDP only had just above 1,000 votes over the Liberals. There was also a 3 term incumbent, which could've factored into the unchanged margin. In 2019 the riding was 6/121 in Ontario and 20/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.7/10 - I do appreciate names like this that describe the landscape rather than the townships (Insert "give us back Rocky Mountains riding propaganda")

Shape: 6.8/10 - I can't get too mad at the shape, it does follow rivers and the lake, so it isn't awful, but the North portion isn't great.

Individuality: 7.1/10 - I love a good bellwether. This riding isn't exactly one, but we can't all be Peterborough-Kawartha. Otherwise, it's a pretty typical Ontario urban riding.

Total: 22.6/30 (75.3%)

See you tomorrow with our first Toronto riding, Beaches-East York!

Battlefords—Lloydminster (Saskatchewan) 17/338

Battlefords—Lloydminster (Saskatchewan) 

Today we're in a new province, Saskatchewan!

Battlefords-Lloydminster was created in 1996 from Kindersley-Lloydminster and The Battlefords-Meadow Lake. The largest municipalities are North Battleford (13,188 in 2011), Battleford (4,065 in 2011), and the Saskatchewan portion of Lloydminster (11,765 in 2016). There are also quite a few indigenous nations on this land, namely Seekaskootch, Sweet Grass, and Red Pheasant.

Politically, this riding isn't as moderate as it used to be. When I say moderate, I say the margin was 15 points in 1997, not the 66 points from the 2019 election. There is still a Liberal and NDP presence due to the indigenous nations. One thing that I find interesting is that in 2015, even though the Liberals got more than 15% of the vote, they didn't win a single poll, yet in 2019 when they only got 6.8% of the vote, they won a few polls on the reserves. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Rosemarie Falk. 

Rosemarie Falk was initially elected in a by-election triggered by Gerry Ritz's resignation in 2017. This by-election was held on December 11th, 2017. The election went completely against the national landscape. The Liberals had been polling at +25 due to the still fairly young Trudeau government. I'm not saying this was an expected pickup, but the Conservatives gained almost 9 points while the Liberals lost more than 6 points. In 2019, the riding was 12/14 in Saskatchewan and 324/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.3/10 - I'll give them props for naming the riding after the two largest municipalities.

Shape: 5.9/10 - It's not the worst we've seen. At least where there are jagged portions, they have defined corners and aren't just squiggles.

Individuality: 6.1/10 - While it is typical with other rural ridings, I do like how there are still pockets of other parties with Liberals and NDP showing up with the indigenous nations.

Total: 20.3/30 (67.7%)

See you tomorrow when we're back in Ontario with Bay of Quinte!

Battle River—Crowfoot (Alberta) 16/338

Battle River—Crowfoot (Alberta)

Today we're back in rural Alberta with Battle River—Crowfoot!

Battle River—Crowfoot has existed since the 2012 redistribution, getting created from Crowfoot and Vegreville-Wainwright. The largest municipalities are Camrose (18,742 in 2016), Drumheller (7,982 in 2016), and Wainwright (6,270 in 2016). The namesake Battle River runs through the riding. As for the Crowfoot, the riding is partially named after Chief Crowfoot of the Siksika First Nation.

Politically, this riding has always been very Conservative. In fact, the most Conservative, the Conservatives won in 2019 by a 80 point margin over the NDP who won 5% of the vote. The best performance of a left-of-center party was 15% for the Liberals in 1993 in the riding Vegreville. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Damien Kurek. (Fun Fact: He went to Trinity Western University in my hometown!)

In all the poll data available, the Liberals and NDP have never even won a poll. This riding was technically represented by a Liberal MP for two years when Conservative MP Jack Horner crossed the floor to join Pierre Trudeau's cabinet, first without a portfolio and then as the minister of Industry, Trade and Commerce. As you can assume, this wasn't popular amongst his constituents when he lost in the 1979 election by almost 20,000 votes. The riding was 34/34 in Alberta and 338/338 in Canada (!) by margin in 2019.

Rating:

Name: 5.7/10 - I understand why it wasn't named after a specific town, it is too rural to do that. And I do appreciate that it's named after an indigenous person, which I believe is the only one? I kinda wish it was named after a dinosaur though.

Shape: 3.8/10 - Do I need to say anything? The border with Saskatchewan helps it a little.

Individuality: 7.1/10 - I find it so cool how wide the margin is consistently. And the unconventional names are cool too. 

Total: 16.6/30 (55.3%)

Tomorrow we're heading one province over with Battlefords-Lloydminster!

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (Ontario) 15/338

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (Ontario)

Today we're not too far from yesterday with Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte.

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte was created in the 2012 electoral redistribution, gaining territory from Barrie, Simcoe—Grey, and Simcoe North. The municipalities are Barrie (141,434 in 2016), Oro-Medonte (21,036 in 2016) and Springwater (19,059 in 2016). All three municipalities are shared with neighbouring ridings.

Politically, the riding has been close, torn between the rural nature of Oro-Medonte and Springwater and the urban Barrie. The riding was the 2nd closest in 2015, only having a 86 vote difference after a judicial recount. However, both the Conservatives and Liberals lost ground in 2019. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Doug Shipley.

The swing in 2015 was pretty uniform with the rest of Central Ontario, +25 for the Liberals. One thing of note in 2019 is that this riding had one of the bigger swings for the Green party, +8 points, finishing less than 1000 votes behind the NDP. In 2019, the riding was 25/121 in Ontario and 75/338 in Canada in terms of margin.

Rating:

Name: 6.9/10 - While it is only one more name than the previous one, it just feels worse this time. I would be okay with Barrie North/Barrie South, but I'm not the one that makes the names, I just complain about them.

Shape: 7.1/10 - From a distance, it looks fine, but the closer you go you start to see the blemishes. The northwest corner is gross, the juts in and out on the north and east.

Individuality: 5.1/10 - I do find it interesting how close it was in 2015, but other than that, it's the Central Ontario story.

Total: 19.1/30 (63.6%)

See you tomorrow in Battle River-Crowfoot!

Barrie-Innisfil (Ontario) 14/338

Barrie-Innisfil (Ontario)

Today we're back in Ontario with Barrie-Innisfil!

Barrie-Innisfil as a riding has existed since (say it with me now) the 2012 redistribution, created from Barrie and York-Simcoe. The riding contains the southern portion of Barrie (141,434 in 2016) and the town of Innisfil (36,566 in 2016). The city of Barrie is actually more bilingual than most of the province (2.4 average vs. 6.8 in Barrie).

Politically, the riding is fairly Conservative. The biggest issue for the Liberals is that Barrie is split into two ridings. In 2019, the win still would've gone to the Conservatives, but it would likely be a flip for the Liberals in 2015. The rest of the riding is Conservative territory, mostly due to the rural nature of Innisfil. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP John Brassard.

The riding has slowly been making it's way to the left over the past few elections. The 2011 redistributed results gave the Conservatives 61% of the vote, 46% of the vote in 2015, and then 43% of the vote in 2019. The main reason that the riding is still Conservative is because of vote-splitting. Whether you want to argue if Liberals are left or center, you have to notice that the combined NDP and Liberal vote would over take the Conservatives in this riding. The riding was 54/121 in Ontario and 135/338 in Canada in terms of margin in 2019.

Rating:

Name: 8.2/10 - I actually don't mind it, there are only two municipalities in here so why not name them both? Maybe Barrie South? (Or just give Barrie it's own riding back).

Shape: 8.5/10 - The shape is also fairly good. The west side is a little gross, but there is a minimal amount of corners (which is a plus).

Individuality: 5.2/10 - Fairly common for urban centers in an otherwise rural area. The bilingualism in Barrie is interesting.

Total: 21.9/30 (73%)

We're going riding north tomorrow with Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte!

Banff—Airdrie (Alberta) 13/338

Banff—Airdrie (Alberta)

Today we have our first Alberta riding, Banff—Airdrie!

Banff—Airdrie has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, gaining boundaries from the ridings Wild Rose and Macleod. The largest municipalities are Airdrie (61,581 in 2016), Cochrane (25,853 in 2016) and Canmore (13,992 in 2016). The riding also contains the namesake mountain town Banff.

Politically, while there are pockets of Liberals and NDP, namely Banff and Canmore, the riding is solidly Conservative. The margin in 2015, a Liberal wave year, was still more than 35 points. However, in 2019 the margin grew to more than 60 points. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Blake Richards.

This riding is pretty on par with the rest of Alberta/the entire rural portion of the Prairies: Very large majority plus some pockets of Liberal/NDP in small communities. One interesting note is that the Greens were in second place in this riding in 2008, netting 12.6% of the vote and had quite a presence in Canmore and Crossfield, and basically the whole region. In 2019, the riding was 19/34 in Alberta and 318/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.3/10 - Less than 4 names is a win in my book, but I wish they were more general with the Rockies because Banff has less than 10,000 people.

Shape: 4.1/10 - The BC border is the reason this isn't lower, but the rest of it is so ugly! Thankfully you can't scream gerrymandering because the neighbouring ridings are just as conservative.

Individuality: 4.6/10 - The second place for the greens is so cool to me, but it's very par for the course for Alberta.

Total: 15/30 (50%)

See you tomorrow with Barrie-Innisfil!

Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia (Quebec) 12/338

 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia (Quebec)

Today we're back in Quebec for the fifth time on this trip with Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia! (We have a week off from Quebec and their long names after this one I swear.)

Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia as a riding has existed since the 2012 redistribution, gaining territory from Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia. The population centers are Matane (18,368 in 2011), Mont-Joli (6,665 in 2011), and Amqui (6,322 in 2011). The riding is the second easternmost riding on the Gaspé Peninsula.

Politically the riding and equivalents have been represented by the Bloc for the majority of the past 28 years. The exceptions are when Jean-François Fortin left the Bloc to become Independent and then lead the Strength in Democracy party, who was subsequently defeated by Liberal candidate Rémi Massé in 2015. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Quebecois MP Kristina Michaud. 

The Bloc's loss in 2015 could be attributed to the incumbent Bloc member-turned third party member running in the riding and splitting the Bloc vote, although the more likely story is the Liberal wave in Quebec. Despite the NDP falling to less than 4 points in the riding, they still won three polls in Pointe-à-la-Croix. In 2019, the riding was 35/78 in Quebec and 166/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.2/10 - "Hey guys, let's just list all the census divisions and hope they don't notice!" I noticed. 

Shape: 5.6/10 - The north and south are fine because it's coastal/bordering New Brunswick, but I can't forgive the west and east.

Individuality: 4.5/10 - The 30 point swing towards the Bloc would be cool if the riding wasn't historically a Bloc seat. 

Total: 14.3/30 - (47.6%) 

Join us tomorrow with our first Alberta/Prairie riding, Banff-Airdrie!

Avalon (Newfoundland and Labrador) 11/338

 Avalon (Newfoundland and Labrador)

Today we're in the easternmost province, Newfoundland and Labrador!

 Avalon as a riding has existed since the 2003 redistribution, gaining territory from the neighbouring Bonavista-Trinity-Conception, St. John's East, and St. John's West. The population centers are Conception Bay South (26,199 as of 2016), Paradise (21,389 as of 2016, shared with St. John's East), and Bay Roberts (11,083 as of 2016). Simply put, the riding contains a good majority of the Avalon Peninsula, except for St. John's and the Northwest portion going to Bonavista-Burin-Trinity.

Politically, the riding has historically been a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives, despite the Conservatives only winning the seat once in 2006. The rural portions are Liberal, but the more urban areas (as urban as you can get in Newfoundland) are a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives. The riding was represented by Liberal turned Independent Scott Andrews from 2008-2015 who ran as an independent and gained 17.82% of the vote. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Ken McDonald.

In 2015, in areas the Conservatives have historically dominated, they didn't have the same traction, only winning two polls in the south. This could be attributed to the prominent independent. However, the Conservatives gained the ground back but still finished 15 points behind the Liberals. The "2019 Atlantic Green Wave" can also be seen in small parts here where the seat swung 5 points towards the Greens and them winning one poll in the North. The riding was 5/7 in 2019 in NL and 141/338 in Canada in terms of margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.4/10 - I wish there was a way to say Avalon except St. John's, but I like names named after geography, so no complaining here.

Shape: 6.7/10 - South and West Coast, I love you so much. Everything else, I don't understand what you're doing.

Individuality: 6.6/10 - I find the fact the most Conservative presence is on the "urban" coast pretty interesting, and I also like condensed regions in otherwise rural ridings. (ie. Conception Bay)

Total: 21.7/30 - (72.3%) 

See you tomorrow back in Quebec (I swear we have some time off from Quebec after this) with Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia!

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill (Ontario) 10/338

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill (Ontario)

Today we're back in Ontario with Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill.

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill as a riding has existed since the 2012 electoral redistribution, being produced from Newmarket-Aurora, Oak Ridges-Markham, and Richmond Hill. The population centers are Richmond Hill (195,022 as of 2016) and Aurora (55,445 as of 2016) which are both shared with neighbouring ridings. There's also an unincorporated community, Oak Ridges, within this riding.

Politically, the riding has been flipping back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives for its entire existence (except for the one time it elected Tony Roman, an independent). In 2015, the seat swung almost 20 points to give Leona Alleslev the victory as a Liberal. However, on September 17th, 2018, Leona Alleslev crossed the floor to the Conservatives. She was re-elected and the riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Leona Alleslev.

The riding is hard to pin down. It honestly seems like it has gotten more moderate in the past two elections. The Liberals won the seat by just over 1,000 votes in 2015, but then in 2019 they lost the seat by just over 1,000 votes. Whether that's to do with an incumbent MP sitting in a different party than initially elected or if it's just a testament to the sentiment at the time towards the Liberal Party. The seat was 5/121 in Ontario and 14/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.4/10- Too many names. I get that there are three prominent population centers, but other ridings have done less with more. 

Shape: 8.1/10 - Good on three sides, I wish there was a cleaner cut with the Richmond Hill suburbs. Just continue along Elgin Mills Road East with out the southern jaunt and it's a 10/10.

Individuality: 6.8/10 - The back and forth always keeps things interesting, and it's cool seeing something get more moderate nowadays rather than more polarized. Also an unincorporated community this close to Toronto seems very cool to me.

Total: 19.3/30 - (64.3%) 

Join us tomorrow as we head to our first Newfoundland riding, Avalon!

Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation (Quebec) 9/338

Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation (Quebec)

Today we're headed back to Quebec with Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation.

Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation as a riding has existed since the 2012 redistribution, taking boundaries from Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel and Pontiac. The population centers are Buckingham (16,685 in 2016), Lachute (12,551 in 2011) and Brownsburg-Chatham (7,209 in 2011). The riding is on the border of Ontario and Quebec, but due to the Ottawa River, it only connects once, between Grenville and Hawkesbury.

Politically, the story is similar to Abitibi—Témiscamingue and Alfred-Pellan, it has been held by the four major parties in the past 30 years. That being said, the riding has been nudged to the left over the past thirty years. The last time the Conservatives (Progressive Conservatives at the time) won the seat with 56.43%. In the last election, the Conservatives won 12.09% of the vote. Granted, there were different boundaries, but alas, the point is made. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Stéphane Lauzon.

The 2019 election was particularly close for the Liberals. The anchor of Buckingham and the rural Liberal support gave the Liberals the seat, but the Bloc, like in many regions of Quebec, saw a resurgence in communities, particularly Lachute and Saint-André-Avellin and the corridor north of Papineauville (Election Atlas). All told, the seat was held by a 1.45% margin, making the seat 5/78 in Quebec and 14/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.8/10 - Argenteuil is the name of the regional county municipality and Petite Nation is the name of a river, so they both have relevance, I just wish it would be a little shorter/more concise.

Shape: 5.6/10 - Ottawa River side: Amazing, fantastic, never better. Everything else: what.

Individuality: 6.4/10 - The more we do these Quebec ridings, the more the elasticity feels less special, but for now it bumps it up. Also the near split in rural and urban communities in 2019 is very interesting to me.

Total: 19.8/30 (66%)

See you tomorrow in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill!

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (Ontario) 8/338

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (Ontario)

Today we're back with another Ontario riding, Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing!

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing as a riding has existed since 2003, getting territory from Algoma—Manitoulin and Timmins-James Bay. The largest municipalities are Elliot Lake (10,741 as of 2016), Kapuskasing (8,292 as of 2016), and Hearst (5,070 as of 2016). It is the 3rd largest riding in Ontario by area at 100,103 square kilometres. Fun fact: Academy Award winning director James Cameron is from the namesake Kapuskasing!

Politically, the riding (and equivalent ridings) had been held by the Liberals for *checks notes* 73 YEARS?? Another astonishing thing about the riding is that it had been represented by six MP's, one of those being the 14th Prime Minister of Canada, Lester B. Pearson. However, the Liberals lost the seat in 2008 to the NDP. The seat is currently held by NDP MP Carol Hughes.

On a regional level, the votes are very spread out and diverse. In the area immediately south of Sault Ste. Marie, there is a very heavy Conservative presence, in the community of Hearst there is a strong Liberal presence, but the NDP victory gets handed to them with their strong presence in Kapuskasing and Elliot Lake, as well as the rural regions of the riding. In 2019, the riding was 61/121 in Ontario and 145/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 6.4/10 - The riding does include the Algoma and Manitoulin Districts as well as the town of Kapuskasing, but I wish they stuck with Algoma-Manitoulin, and even that is too much for me. 

Shape: 4.8/10 - I know it's for population density, but I really don't like ridings within ridings so I have an issue with the Sault Ste. Marie portion as well as basically the entire border with Timmins-James Bay.

Individuality: 7.6/10 - I find rural ridings that go to parties other than Conservatives interesting, trying to figure out what sets the riding apart with the voting bloc here. Also James Cameron helps quite a bit. I love Titanic.

Total: 18.8/30 (62.6%)

Come back tomorrow when we're back in Quebec with Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation!

Alfred-Pellan (Quebec) 7/338

 Alfred-Pellan (Quebec)

After one day away, we're back to Quebec with Alfred-Pellan!

Alfred-Pellan has been in place as a riding since 2003, being previously named Laval East. We are entering the Quebec trend of ridings being named after people! Alfred-Pellan is named after, well, Alfred Pellan, Quebec painter and artist whose work spanned from art galleries,  theatre costumes, and illustrations in books. Alfred-Pellan is in Laval, a suburb north of Montreal.

Politically, Alfred-Pellan is quite diverse like other Quebec ridings (who knew having four major parties in a province would make things competitive.) In the past ten years, it has been held by the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois, and twenty years before that, it was held by the Progressive Conservatives. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Angelo Iacono.

There is *some* regionalism in the riding, the less densely populated areas went to the Bloc Quebecois, the more dense areas closer to the Riviere Des Prairies skewing heavily Liberal (Election Atlas). Similar to Abitibi—Témiscamingue, even though the riding has had diverse representation, it has had pretty wide margins of victory, the last time it went to the Bloc was the thinnest margin at less than 10 points. The riding was 40/78 in Quebec and 181/338 in Canada in 2019.

Rating:

Name: 4.6/10 - I'm not too sure how I feel about ridings being named for historical figures. On the one hand, he DID live in Aueteuil, Laval in the 1950's, so points for that, but I feel like a riding named for him would be more relevant in Quebec City or Montreal proper, where they have more ridings to name after whoever they want.

Shape: 7.2/10 - Almost everything is okay as it is shaped by the river, but I wish the west side was a bit cleaner with the neighbouring ridings. 

Individuality: 5.6/10 - I think as far as suburban ridings it is pretty typical, but the elasticity is interesting and does set it apart to some extent.

Total: 17.4/30 (58%)

Join us tomorrow for our next Ontario riding, Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing!

Ajax (Ontario) 6/338

 Ajax (Ontario)

Today we have our first Ontario riding of our trip, Ajax!

Ajax as a riding has been in place since the 2012 redistribution, taking the entire town of Ajax out of the Ajax-Pickering riding. The riding, as seems obvious, encapsulates the entire town of Ajax, which is the most densely populated town in the Durham region at 1,634.2 per square kilometre. (2011 Census)

Politically, Ajax swung almost 18 points to the Liberals in 2015 due to their very strong support in suburban areas. The seat (and equivalent previous seats) has been held by Liberal MP Mark Holland since 2000 except for 2011-2015 when it was represented by Conservative MP Chris Alexander, who subsequently lost re-election in 2015. Mark Holland is the Chief Government Whip of the House of Commons. 

The seat has been trending to the left, mostly due to the rise of the suburbs and commuter cities/communities. This is a riding that has had a pretty reliable Liberal voting bloc, the main reason the Tories picked up the seat is the loss of Liberal trust and the gain of NDP and Conservative support. In 2019, the riding was 108/121 in Ontario and 262/338 in Canada.

Rating:

Name: 10/10 - This is how you name a riding! Using the town limits as the shape leaves no outskirts to take into account when naming.

Shape: 8.3/10 - Just because it uses the town limits, doesn't mean I'm a fan of them. I appreciate the three clean edges, just not really feeling the suburbs that jut out. 

Individuality: 4.4/10 - Very typical for a suburban commuter riding. Increasingly Liberal, less Conservative presence. The median age of 36.2 in 2011 is fairly interesting, but not enough to make it higher up.

Total: 22.7/30 (75.6%)

Tomorrow we're heading back to Quebec with Alfred-Pellan!

Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Quebec) 5/338

 Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Quebec)

Today, we're exploring our first metropolitan riding, Ahuntsic-Cartierville!

 

Ahuntsic-Cartierville has been in place as a riding since the 2012 electoral redistribution from 80% of the Ahuntsic riding and 20% of the Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. The riding contains virtually all of the Ahuntsic-Cartierville borough, barring the Sault-au-Récollet neighbourhood. It is the 23rd smallest electoral riding by size, but contains 117,447 people as of the 2016 Census. 

Politically, it has become more Liberal since the 2015 federal election. From the 2011 redistribution results, it was a tight three-way race between the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, and the NDP. In 2015, the Liberals gained a swing of over 15 points to win with a 16.8 margin over the NDP. The riding is represented by Liberal MP, Melanie Joly, Minister of Economic Development and Official Languages. 

Historically, the Ahuntsic riding has been competitive between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party. From 2006-2015, the riding was represented by Bloc MP Maria Mourani who was ousted from the party in 2013 and sat as an independent and ran as an NDP candidate in 2015. During her three successful elections, she never won more than 40% of the vote. The seat was 59/78 in Quebec and 258/338 in Canada.

Rating:

Name: 8.9/10 - Not much to say here, it does encapsulate virtually an entire borough with that name. I'm not too familiar with Montreal or Quebec in general so I don't know how to make it better.

Shape: 7.4/10 - Like above, it does encapsulate an entire neighbourhood, but the west side where Boulevard Toupin juts out of the Saint-Laurent riding seems a little gross to me. 

Individuality: 5.6/10 - Get familiar with this story: Montreal riding, Competitive between Bloc/Liberals/NDP, 2015: Liberal swing-2019: NDP falls out of race, margin gets wider for Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. 

Total: 21.9/30 (73%)

Join us tomorrow with our first of 121 Ontario ridings, Ajax!

Acadie-Bathurst (New Brunswick) - 4/338

Acadie-Bathurst (New Brunswick)

Our next riding is our first Atlantic riding, Acadie-Bathurst!

Acadie-Bathurst has been in place since the 2012 redistribution, gaining a small portion from Miramichi-Grand Lake. The population centers are the namesake Bathurst (30,424 as of the 2016 Census), Tracadie-Sheila (16,000 as of the 2011 Census), as well as the coastal towns of Caraquet, Lamèque, and Shippagan.

Politically, the riding was held by the NDP for almost 20 years until the Liberal sweep of the Atlantic in 2015. More specifically it was held by Yvon Godin for 18 years. When he retired, mayor of Maisonette, Jason Godin (no relation) ran in his place and the seat swung over 30 points to the Liberals. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Serge Cormier.

This riding is one where the incumbent is very favoured. Yvon Godin improved on his margin in all but one of his six elections. As well, this is one of the seats where the Liberals gained ground in 2019, sweeping all the population centers that the NDP had won. This seat was the widest margin of victory in 2019 in NB and 270/338 in Canada.

Rating:

Name: 8.4/10 - We have our first historical name! Acadie is the name of a former French colony that comprised the Maritimes. That combined with Bathurst gives us a pretty good name by all accounts.

Shape: 7.3/10 - It's hard to get annoyed with the shape of coastal ridings, but one thing that is controllable is the edge with Madawaska-Restigouche, it's not like there's a big population there, from what I can tell it's just a few rural communities.

Individuality: 6.2/10 - It's cool how big of a swing there was (I guess not for the NDP) in 2015, but other than that it is pretty on par with other Atlantic ridings.

Total: 21.9/30 (73%)

Join us tomorrow with our first city riding, Ahuntsic-Cartierville!

Abitibi—Témiscamingue (Quebec) 3/338

 Abitibi—Témiscamingue (Quebec)

Our third riding of our trip isn't too far from the last, Abitibi—Témiscamingue!

 

Abitibi—Témiscamingue has been in place as a riding in its current form since 2013, losing a small territory to Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou in the 2012 redistribution. It is anchored by population centers in Rouyn-Noranda (42,334 as of the 2016 Census), Amos (17,090 as of the 2011 Census), and La Sarre (7,719 as of the 2011 Census). 

Politically, it has had pretty diverse representation, having been represented by every major party in Quebec in the past 25 years, the shortest term being by the Liberals for one year as the result of a by-election after the passing of Bloc MP Pierre Brien. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Quebecois MP Sébastien Lemire.

This riding is hard to pin down by its diverse federal representation. Despite its diverse representation, elections are not close. The last time this riding (or at least the equivalent of it) had less than a 10 point margin was in 1988. In 2019, it was 45/78 in Quebec and 198/338 in Canada in terms of closeness.

Rating:

Name: 7.8/10 - The name is good, but I wish it was named after a different municipality, given Témiscaming has a population of 2,431 (2016 Census)

Shape: 6.7/10 - It's fine, I just hope they reshape it a bit to make it a cleaner edge with Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou next time they redistrict. 

Individuality: 6.3/10 -  In terms of rural Quebec ridings, it's pretty par for the course, the interesting part is the political elasticity.

Total: 20.8/30 (69.3%)

We're heading southeast to New Brunswick tomorrow with Acadie-Bathurst!

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (Quebec) 2/338

 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (Quebec)

Our next riding is Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou.

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou is the third largest federal riding by size, larger than the Yukon territory. The riding of Abitibi was created in 1966 and was redistricted into its current riding in 2003. The largest city is Val-d'Or at 32,491 residents (2016 Census) and the riding also contains several indigenous nations (Chisasibi, Eastmain, Mistissini, Nemiscau, Waskaganish, Waswanipi and Wemindji). 

Politically, Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou is not immune to trends. In 2011, the NDP picked up the seat from the Bloc Quebecois, the seat was held in 2015 by less than 5 points. But by the 2019 election and the major loss of support for the NDP in Quebec, the seat swung 18 points towards the Bloc Quebecois. 

The poll-by-poll results reveal an interesting trend of a Liberal north, an NDP west coast, and a very dense support for the Bloc in the cities of Chibougamau and Val-d'Or. (Election Atlas) The riding was 22/78 in Quebec and 76/338 in Canada and is currently represented by Sylvie Bérubé.

Rating:

Name: 3.4/10 - Ok. So the names all have relevance, and it is a very large area, but COME ON. 4 names??? I don't even know how to fix it, the cities aren't large enough to define it around that.

Shape: 7.0/10 - I like coastal ridings, seeing how it fits in with the shape of the country as a whole, I just wish it was a cleaner edge with Abitibi—Témiscamingue. 

Individuality: 8.1/10 - I'm impressed by the sheer size and how there is a city in this goliath that is larger than every US state except Alaska. I also am very satisfied with the regional electoral trends. 

Total: 18.5/30 (61.6%)

Speaking of Abitibi—Témiscamingue, we'll be exploring that riding tomorrow, see you then!