North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia) 206/338

 North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia)

Today we're back in the BC Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

North Okanagan–Shuswap has existed as a riding since 1988, created from Kamloops—Shuswap and Okanagan North. The population of the riding was 136,520 in 2021. The population centers are Vernon (44,519 in 2021), Salmon Arm (19,432 in 2021), and Coldstream (11,171 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is politically pretty similar to Parry Sound—Muskoka: a solid Conservative riding with a split opposition that has solid Green support. The Greens typically do well in the eastern rural portions, as well as doing well in Vernon in 2019. In 2020, the NDP's 2019 candidate ran for the BC NDP and won Vernon-Monashee by just over 400 votes. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Mel Arnold.

In 2022, the BC Federal Electoral Boundaries commission proposed that the new riding that BC will receive will be placed in the BC interior. The new riding stretches from Vernon down to the downtown core of Kelowna. As such, North Okanagan–Shuswap has expanded to include Revelstoke and the eastern suburbs of Kamloops. In 2019, this seat was 36/42 in BC and 235/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, I like that there are three ridings named after the Okanagan, a fast growing region in BC. The shape is okay, I wish it didn't attach Central Kootenay like that. As for individuality, it's cool seeing the different bases of support for all four parties in the riding.

Tomorrow we'll be back in Metro Vancouver with North Vancouver!

North Island—Powell River (British Columbia) 205/338

 North Island—Powell River (British Columbia)

Today we're starting a little trip through BC's three regions with North Island—Powell River!

North Island—Powell River has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after existing from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 111,825 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Campbell River (35,519 in 2021), Comox (14,806 in 2021), and Powell River (13,943 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has typically been an NDP/Conservative marginal seat. The Conservatives have a solid base in Campbell River and in the north of the riding, while the NDP do well in the Comox Valley and in Powell River. In 2006 when the Conservatives formed government, the NDP defeated incumbent MP John Duncan by just 630 votes, but lost by 2,485 votes in 2008. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Rachel Blaney.

It's fitting that we're discussing Vancouver Island on the day that Premier John Horgan announces that he isn't seeking another term as Premier of British Columbia. While I could discuss leadership potential, I'll instead discuss one of the MLA's that make up most of the area. Ronna-Rae Leonard has represented Courtenay-Comox since 2017, winning a seat that hadn't been held by the party since 2001. She actually ran for the federal NDP in 2011 in Vancouver Island North, losing by just 1,827 votes. In 2019, this seat was 9/42 in BC and 51/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, quite descriptive of the region. The shape is good, I hope eventually the entire Comox Valley will be intact. As for individuality, this is definitely a test of the realignment, but it also has gone to the left to a certain extent.

Tomorrow we'll be in the Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario) 204/338

 Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Nipissing—Timiskaming has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Nipissing and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 89,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of North Bay (52,662 in 2021), Temiskaming Shores (9,634 in 2021), and East Ferris (4,946 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is usually a Liberal seat with solid Conservative support. In fact, in the past 100 years, it has only been won by Conservatives twice: in 1984 and 2011, both Conservative majorities. Otherwise, this was one of the better results for the PPC in 2019, due to North Bay city councillor Mark King running for the party, receiving almost 2,500 votes. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Speaker of the House Anthony Rota.

Anthony Rota has served in the House of Commons for all but four years since 2004, losing just once in 2011 by just 18 votes. In 2019, Rota was elected the 37th speaker of the House of Commons, the first from Northern Ontario since James Jerome in the 1970's. It should also be noted that Ontario Premier Mike Harris represented this seat from 1981-2002, serving as premier from 1995-2002. In 2019, this seat was 48/121 in Ontario and 123/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, it's almost entirely contained within the Nipissing and Timiskaming Territorial Districts. The shape is fine for the most part, I just wish the Nipissing 10 appendage in the west was a bit cleaner. As for individuality, it's surprising that the seat doesn't flip more than it does. 

Tomorrow we'll be back on the west coast with North Island—Powell River!

Nickel Belt (Ontario) 203/338

 Nickel Belt (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Nickel Belt has existed as a riding since 1952, created from Algoma East, Algoma—Manitoulin, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sudbury and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 94,947 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Greater Sudbury (166,004 in 2021, shared with Sudbury), West Nipissing (14,583 in 2021), and French River (2,828 in 2021). As of the 2016 Census, this riding was >50% bilingual, while the Ontario average was just over 11%.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/NDP fight, but that isn't to say the races have been particularly close. In the last sixty years, it has only been closer than five points in 2006, 1979, and 1965. However, the seat has become friendlier to Conservatives in recent years, they snuck into second place in 2021, helped by their performance in Greater Sudbury. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Marc Serré.

The Serré name goes pretty far back in Northern Ontario and even in Nickel Belt itself. Marc Serré is the son of one-term Nickel Belt Liberal MP Gaetan Serré, winning when all but one seat in Northern Ontario went to the Liberals as part of Pierre Trudeau's first majority government. Interestingly in his re-election bid in 1972, there were over 4,700 rejected ballots, which could've put him over, but he withdrew his request for them to be counted after seeing a sample. Gaetan Serré's brother, Benoît Serré, served as MP for Timiskaming—French River and Timiskaming—Cochrane from 1993-2004. Both Gaetan and Benoît Serré passed away recently, in November 2017 and May 2019 respectively. In 2019, this seat was 23/121 in Ontario and 68/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Northern Ontario and especially Greater Sudbury are nickel-rich and historically has been a big attraction for mining jobs (in 2016, 17% of the men in the riding were miners). The shape is good, I like the provincial version better that is completely surrounding the Sudbury riding. As for individuality, the riding likes to bounce between the Liberals and NDP but the Conservatives are rising, which is common for Northern Ontario.

Tomorrow, we're one riding east with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Niagara West (Ontario) 202/338

 Niagara West (Ontario)

Today we're back in the Niagara Region with Niagara West!

Niagara West has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Niagara West—Glanbrook, St. Catharines and Welland. The population of the riding was 96,946 in 2021. The riding contains the towns of Grimsby (28,883 in 2021), Lincoln (25,719 in 2021), and Pelham (18,192 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a classic rural seat that was Liberal during the Reform/PC split years. The rural areas leaned further and further towards the Reform party from 1993-2000, but the Liberals did really well in the urban centres of Grimsby and Pelham. Even when the Conservatives picked the seat up in 2004, the Liberals still overwhelmingly won Pelham. The seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Dean Allison.

Provincially, this seat was held by PC MPP, PC Leader, and Leader of the Opposition Tim Hudak. In 1995, he won the seat by just under 1,200 votes, making him the second youngest MPP, just after John Baird. He served in both Mike Harris and Ernie Eaves' cabinets. In 2009, he won the PC Leadership over Frank Klees, Christine Elliot, and Randy Hillier. He successfully held the Liberal government to a minority in 2011, putting himself in a good position to form government next time around. However, due to some missteps by his campaign, he fell out of favour, leading to a Liberal majority and his resignation in July 2014. In 2019, this seat was 47/121 in Ontario and 122/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is quite good, I think I'd even be okay with something like Lincoln-Pelham. The shape is also great, not the biggest fan of the municipal boundaries on the east, but that's not the biggest issue. As for individuality, it's a Conservative rural Ontario seat that's under populated, not too surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Niagara Falls (Ontario) 201/338

 Niagara Falls (Ontario)

Today we're in Niagara Falls!

Niagara Falls has existed as a riding since 1953. The population of the riding was 146,404 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Niagara Falls (94,415 in 2021), Fort Erie (32,901 in 2021), and Niagara-on-the-Lake (19,088 in 2021). The riding grew by about 18,000 people since the 2011 Census, the most this far south in Ontario.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/Conservative swing district, but has had its moments of safety for each party. Between 1965 and 1988 the seat was represented by a new MP each election, for a total of seven MPs. While the conservative parties were divided from 1993-2000, the riding was won by the Liberals. As soon as the reunified, the riding went for the Conservatives, where it has been since. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli.

From 1984-1993 and 2004-2019, the seat was represented by Conservative MP Rob Nicholson. When Kim Campbell became prime minister, she appointed Nicholson to be minister for science and small business. When the Harper Conservatives went into government, he was appointed Government House Leader. He held a few more cabinet positions after this, namely minister of justice, minister of defence, and minister of foreign affairs. In 2019, this seat was 9/121 and 28/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, central location, largest population centre, and a well known name. The shape is also good, I'm sure that it'll lose either Niagara-on-the-Lake or Fort Erie next redistribution. As for individuality, interesting that a riding so historically close has gotten more reliable in recent years.

Tomorrow we'll be a few ridings west with Niagara West!

Niagara Centre (Ontario) 200/338

 Niagara Centre (Ontario)

Today we have our 200th riding with Niagara Centre!

Niagara Centre has existed as a riding for all but nine years since Confederation. The population of the riding was 119,809 in 2021. The riding contains the cities of Welland (55,750 in 2021), Thorold (23,816 in 2021), and Port Colborne (20,033 in 2021). It also contains the southern part of St. Catharines.

Politically, this seat has good news for the Liberals, NDP, and the Conservatives. For the Liberals, they've held it for all but eleven years since 1935. For the NDP, they have a solid base here that fluctuates, but manifested in a 2008/2011 win. For the Conservatives, they've gotten very close in recent years, including finishing just 300 votes behind the NDP in 2008. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Vance Badawey.

With the Ontario provincial election behind us, there was a good expectation that the provincial NDP would lose the three seats that they hold in the Niagara Region. Despite the NDP losing ground across the province, their incumbents held on, with Jennie Stevens increasing her vote share in St. Catharines. That isn't to say they were easy wins, Niagara Centre was won by just 854 votes. In 2019, this seat was 12/121 in Ontario and 40/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, I don't mind it, I do think that with the rate of growth in Thorold that naming it Welland-Thorold in the future would be appropriate. The shape is okay, not exactly the cleanest, but it does follow the municipal lines. As for individuality, this riding is cool in the sense that it's definitely in a transition period.

Tomorrow we're in Niagara Falls!