Brantford-Brant (Ontario) 37/338

Brantford-Brant (Ontario)

Today we’re in Southern Ontario with Brantford-Brant!

Brantford-Brant has existed in some form since the 2012 redistribution. The population centers are Brantford (97,496 in 2016) and Paris (12,310 in 2016). The riding also contains Six Nations of the Grand River indigenous reserve, which is demographically the largest First Nations reserve in Canada.

Politically, the riding has kind of gone in a reverse trend from the rest of the country. Pre-1971 it flipped between the Liberals and Conservatives, until the NDP took the riding and held it for 22 years, when the Liberals took it in 1993 and kept it until 2008, when the Conservatives took the riding and have held it to this day. The riding is currently held by Conservative MP Phil McColeman.

Oddly enough, all three parties just listed won polls in the city of Brantford, which is a testament to how moderate non-Toronto cities are. This riding provincially is reliably Liberal, except for in 1995 and 2018 when the Conservatives came from behind and won a majority, an election after the Liberals won a large majority federally. In 2019, the riding was 32/121 in Ontario and 92/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating: 

Name: 8.4/10 - Brantford does have the majority of the population and I guess Ontario does have counties for some reason.

Shape: 7.3/10 - I actually really like it, there's minimal corners for the shape if that makes sense.

Individuality: 8.8/10 - It's really cool how the city has stayed moderate but the riding itself has gone to the right recently.

Total: 24.5/30 (81.7%)

See you tomorrow in Brome-Missiquoi!

Brandon-Souris (Manitoba) 36/338

 Brandon-Souris (Manitoba)

Today we’re in Manitoba with Brandon-Souris!

Brandon-Souris has existed as a riding since 1953. While there are small communities scattered around the riding, the main population centre is Brandon (48,859 in 2016). This riding is also our first non-contiguous riding, with Brandon Municipal Airport being part of this riding while being surrounded by Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawk.

Politically, this riding has been safe for the Conservative party except for two very specific scenarios. The first scenario it voted Liberal was in 1993. The seat was reliably PC, and when the PC fell off, the vote was split between the PC and the Reform Party, leading the Liberals to win with almost 1000 votes. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Larry MacGuire.

MacGuire was first elected in a by-election in 2013, prompted by the resignation of Merv Tweed, who left to work in the private sector. The by-election in 2013 was very competitive, the Liberals finishing 389 votes behind the Conservatives. This could be attributed to low turnout in by-elections, but also that Rolf Dinsdale was the grandson of longtime Conservative MP Walter Dinsdale. This riding was 11/14 in Manitoba and 304/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.9/10

Shape: 4.5/10

Individuality: 7.5/10

Total: 20.9/30 (69.7%)

See you tomorrow in Brantford-Brant!

Brampton West (Ontario) 35/338

 Brampton West (Ontario)

Today we're in our final Brampton riding, Brampton West!

Brampton West has existed as a riding since 2003, and was first contested in the 2004 election. The riding contains the westernmost portion of Brampton. The population of the riding was 130,000 in 2016. In 2006, the riding had the highest percentage of people of Jamaican origin in Canada, at 13.2%.

Politically, the riding is the same as every other Brampton riding. This riding, however, was exceptionally close in 2008, with Kyle Seeback finishing 231 votes behind Andrew Kania after a judicial recount. Kyle Seeback came back in 2011, however and won the riding by a 6,000 vote margin. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Kamal Khera.

The riding will probably be safe for the Liberals for a few elections, but second place has narrowed up between the Conservatives and NDP, going from a 17.7 margin to a 5.5 margin with the Conservatives in front. That being said, the Liberals still held 35% of the vote in 2011, which could be attributed to the long history of electing Liberals in that riding. In 2019, the riding was 104/121 in Ontario and 252/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.3/10 - It's pretty good, although I will offer Brampton-Sandalwood or Brampton-Bovaird.

Shape: 7.5/10 - I'd say it's pretty good, it follows the streets, but it doesn't mean I like the streets.

Individuality: 6.4/10 - I love how close the margin was in 2008, but the riding is still the same as the rest of Brampton.

Total: 22.2/30 (74%)

Thanks for joining me on my journey through Brampton, see you tomorrow in Brandon-Souris!

Brampton South (Ontario) 34/338

Brampton South (Ontario)

Today we're in our penultimate Brampton riding, Brampton South!

Brampton South has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 121,188 as of 2016. The riding is on the border of Brampton and Mississauga as well as Halton Hills. The eastern portion is very suburban, whereas the western portion closer to Halton Hills is more rural.

Politically, the riding is the same story as the rest of Brampton. One thing of note is that both in 2015 and 2019, this riding had the best performance for the Conservatives in Brampton, 35 points in 2015 and 28 points in 2019. This could be due to Kyle Seeback being on the ballot three elections in a row, he lost in 2008 and 2015, but held the seat from 2011-2015. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Sonia Sidhu.

This riding was won by a majority in 2015 and was won by a plurality in 2019. It shares this characteristic with Brampton East. Oddly enough, Brampton North was won by a plurality in 2015 and a majority in 2019. Brampton West was won by a majority both times, and Brampton Centre was won by a plurality both elections. In 2019, this riding was 84/121 in Ontario and 203/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.6/10 - This riding out of all the cardinal ridings makes the most sense to me. Brampton-Davis would still be better though.

Shape: 6.1/10 - This is probably my least favourite shape. I know it follows streets, but it just doesn't look right.

Individuality: 7.3/10 - I do love a good regionalism, and the 2015 result where there's a large blue suburb is so satisfying.

Total: 22/30 - (73.3%)

See you tomorrow in our last Brampton riding, Brampton West!

Brampton North (Ontario) 33/338

 Brampton North (Ontario)

Today we're in Brampton North!

Brampton North has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 118,180 in 2016. This riding is the smallest in the Brampton area, at 33.11 square kilometers, and by extension the densest. While the riding is largely suburban, there is also quite a bit of green space, with Heart Lake Conservation Park and Conservation Drive Park both on the west side of the riding.

Politically, the riding is very similar to the rest of Brampton, solid Liberal except for 2011. Unlike the other ridings, this is the only riding in Brampton that increased the Liberal vote in 2019. This could be due to Parm Gill who had run several times before in the GTA and was the incumbent in 2015. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Ruby Sahota.

The MP before Parm Gill was also a Liberal named Ruby, Ruby Dhalla, which Gill used against Ruby Sahota in the general election campaign, citing Ruby Dhalla's policies, which Ruby Sahota was clear she didn't stand for. In the end, Ruby Sahota got the last laugh, swinging the seat over 20 points to win the Liberals the riding. In 2019, the riding was 94/121 in Ontario and 224/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.7/10 - Yes, it is the most north, but I'd really like if it was named Brampton-Heart Lake.

Shape: 6.7/10 - Pretty non-offensive, at least the jutting out bits have clean corners.

Individuality: 5.6/10 - It's cool that the Liberals increased their vote share in 2015, but that isn't enough to rank it higher.

Total: 20/30 (66.7%)

See you tomorrow in Brampton South!

Brampton East (Ontario) 32/338

 Brampton East (Ontario)

Today we're one riding over in Brampton East!

Brampton East has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 122,000 in 2016. The riding is the only federal electoral district with a South Asian majority (65.8% in 2016). It also has the highest percentage of Sikhs (33.7%) and Hindus (19.5%) of any riding in Canada. 

Politically, the riding has been solid for the Liberals in every election except for 2011. In 2011, the riding was won by the Conservatives with the NDP swinging 24 points and finishing only 539 votes behind. Who was the NDP candidate? None other than current NDP leader Jagmeet Singh! He won the riding in the provincial election the same year. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Maninder Sidhu. 

I don't talk about provincial politics often, but it's worth mentioning how wide the swing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton was in 2011 for the NDP. Prior to this, the NDP had never had a seat in the Peel Region, now they have three. Now, this isn't reflected in federal seats, but in the region, the NDP gained a net 3.95% versus the -1.48% for the Liberals and -4.97% for the Conservatives. In 2019, the riding was 83/121 in Ontario, and 202/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.9/10 - It is the most east, so I'm not too mad, but I wish they were a bit more creative.

Shape: 8.2/10 - I really like it! Clean corners, mostly straight lines, minimal juts out.

Individuality: 5.3/10 - It is on par with the region, but you can see where the NDP went into second in front of the Conservatives.

Total: 22.4/30 (74.6%)

See you tomorrow in Brampton North! (Link for Brampton results here.)

Brampton Centre (Ontario) 31/338

 Brampton Centre (Ontario)

Today we're in the Greater Toronto Area with Brampton Centre!

Brampton Centre as a riding has existed since the 2012 redistribution. It had previously existed from 1997-2004, but under very different boundaries. The population of the riding was 102,270 in 2016. The riding is almost a plurality minority, Brampton as a whole has a 44% South Asian population, this riding having a 38% Asian population (which includes groups other than South Asian).

Politically, the riding has been safe for the Liberals every time it has been contested. When the riding was under the name Brampton-Springdale, it had gotten increasingly closer from 2004-2011 when the Conservatives flipped the riding in 2011. While there are polls here and there that went Conservative, they were all swept by the Liberals in 2019. The riding is currently represented by Independent MP Ramesh Sangha. 

As you probably know, there was only one independent elected in 2019, Jody Wilson-Raybould. Ramesh Sangha was ousted from the Liberal Caucus on January 25th, 2021 for accusing several Liberal MP's of supporting the Khalistan (Sikh separatist) movement. It is unclear if Ramesh Sangha is planning on running again as an independent. In 2019, the riding was 81/121 in Ontario and 195/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.5/10 - I don't really know what to say, if it was a bit more central I'd be happier with the name.

Shape: 6.4/10 - It juts out a bit at the northeast which I don't like, and I wish it hugged the 407 a bit more.

Individuality: 3.7/10 - When there are 5 ridings that all essentially vote the same way, it'll be hard to find individuality.

Total: 18.6/30 (62%)

See you later today with Brampton East!