Nanaimo–Ladysmith (BC) 195/338

 Nanaimo–Ladysmith (BC)

Today we're back on Vancouver Island with Nanaimo–Ladysmith!

Nanaimo–Ladysmith has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Nanaimo—Alberni and Nanaimo—Cowichan. The population of the riding was 134,509 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Nanaimo (99,863 in 2021), Ladysmith (8,990 in 2021), and Lantzville (3,817 in 2021).

Politically, this was one of the closest races in 2021 as well as one of the lowest vote shares for a winner. Once an NDP stronghold, the Greens took it in a by-election in 2019 and held it that year in the general election. However, the NDP rose due to the faltering Greens, causing them to win and the Conservatives place second in a riding they have historically done well. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Lisa Marie Barron.

Provincially, the MLA for Nanaimo is the former MP for Nanaimo–Ladysmith, from 2015-2019. She was elected in a by-election to represent Nanaimo, given a parliamentary secretary role in July 2019, and elevated to cabinet after the 2020 election. She was made minister of mental health and addictions. On the day this was posted (May 31st, 2022), BC became the first jurisdiction in North America to decriminalize simple possession of illicit drugs, up to 2.5 grams. There is still a long way to go and the announcement is 2 grams below what the BC government was wishing, but it is a step in the right direction in a province ravaged by the overdose crisis. In 2019, this seat was 20/42 in BC and 86/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Ladysmith is on the southeast of the riding, good reason to mention it. The shape is good, BC's regional district shapes are a bit wonky, but at least they're followed here. As for individuality, definitely quite individual, but it is on Vancouver Island, it's a miracle (or a curse) the Greens didn't win any other seats on Vancouver Island in 2019.

Tomorrow we'll be in Nepean for the penultimate day of the Ontario election!

Mount Royal (Quebec) 194/338

 Mount Royal (Quebec)

Today we're in Montreal with Mount Royal!

Mount Royal has existed as a riding since 1925, known as Mont-Royal in French (almost was the English name after the 2012 redistribution, but was changed back to Mount Royal). The population of the riding was 108,494 in 2021. The riding contains the cities of Côte-Saint-Luc (34,504 in 2021), Mont-Royal (20,953 in 2021), and Hampstead (7,037 in 2021).

Politically, former SoCred leader Réal Caouette was quite correct when he said that a mailbox could win the Liberal nomination in Mount Royal and still win election just because it was red. Even in wave elections across Quebec, the seat has remained steadfast in its support for the Liberals. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Anthony Housefather.

From 1965-1984, the seat was represented by Pierre Elliot Trudeau. In his first election as Liberal leader, Trudeau won this seat with 91% support, which was replicated provincially until. Trudeau would serve as Prime Minister until 1979 and from 1980 to 1984. Trudeau considered himself to be aligned with the NDP, however he didn't believe they'd be able to form government, so he ran for the Liberals. The NDP actually had their best performance in the riding in 1965 when Quebec President Charles Taylor received 30% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 61/78 in Quebec and 260/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, I wish more cities had as clearly defined boroughs (these are separate cities, but you know what I mean). The shape is also good, I like that it's remained relatively intact since 1968. As for individuality, this side of the island is so Liberal, but it's saved by the fact that PET served here.

Tomorrow we'll be on Vancouver Island with Nanaimo—Ladysmith!

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan) 193/338

 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan (Saskatchewan)

Today we’re in Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan!

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 80,547 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Moose Jaw (33,665 in 2021), Outlook (2,336 in 2021), and Lumsden (1,800 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been very Conservative since 2006, but it is hard to compare former results due to how much the riding boundaries have changed since then. Currently, the only place where non-Conservative parties are competitive is Moose Jaw and Whitecap 94. However, riding-wide there was still a 28 point different in the best of election years. This riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Fraser Tolmie. 

From 1940-1953, future Prime Minister John Diefenbaker represented Lake Centre. However, after the 1952 redistribution, it was abolished into four much less PC friendly ridings. To save face and have a better chance in 1953, he ran in the Prince Albert riding, which proved successful, as he served there until his death in 1979. In 2019, this seat was 9/14 in Saskatchewan and 312/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is okay, there's only one major urban centre and Lake Centre has been used in a riding name more times than not. The shape is good, I like how it looks like a rotation of Regina–Qu'Appelle. As for individuality, it's another rural Saskatchewan riding, but this one has a Prime Minister attached at least.

See you soon in Mount Royal!

Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (Quebec) 192/338

Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (Quebec)

Today we're in eastern Quebec with Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup!

Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 96,724 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Rivière-du-Loup (20,118 in 2021), Montmagny (10,999 in 2021), and Saint-Antonin (4,338 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has had some very close calls during the 2011 and 2015 elections. In 2011, NDP MP François Lapointe won by just 9 votes over the incumbent Bernard Généreux. In 2015, Généreux took the seat back by just 272 votes, totaling just 28.99% of votes in the riding. Pre-2009, the seat was safe Bloc, post-2019 it's been safe for the Conservatives. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Bernard Généreux. 

Provincially, the seat in the east of the riding actually had a solid performance for the Liberals, largely due to former mayor Jean D'Amour serving as the successful candidate in the 2009 by-election. He fended off the PQ in 2009 and 2012, and winning a sizeable majority in 2014, despite some controversies prior to his provincial career. He lost by just under 2,000 votes in 2018. In 2019, this seat was 24/78 in Quebec and 90/338 in Canada by margin.

The name. It speaks for itself. I say just name it Rivière-du-Loup–Montmagny like it was in 2004. The shape is honestly not that bad, maybe not the biggest fan of the eastern part, but not too bad. As for individuality, not every day does someone win by just 9 votes.

Tomorrow we're back in Saskatchewan with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan!

Montcalm (Quebec) 191/338

 Montcalm (Quebec)

Today we're in Quebec with Montcalm!

Montcalm has existed as a riding in its current form since 2004, but previously existed from Confederation until 1917. The population of this riding was 118,746 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Mascouche (51,183 in 2021), Saint-Lin–Laurentides (24,030 in 2021), and Sainte-Julienne (11,173 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has been Bloc for all but four years since 1993. The NDP won in 2011 by more than 20 points. 2011-2015 MP Manon Perreault was ejected from caucus after being charged with public mischief and eventually convicted. She ran in 2015 under the Strength in Democracy banner, performing okay relative to other SD candidates. This seat is currently represented by Bloc MP Luc Thériault.

Provincially, the southern portion of this riding is represented by Quebec premier François Legault. From 1998-2009, he represented Rousseau as a PQ MNA, which contains more of this federal riding. In 2011, he co-founded a new political movement, the Coalition Avenir Québec, slowly rising up the ranks in 2012 and 2014, before winning a majority government in 2018. Currently, the CAQ is polling at the mid forties, with no clear opposition party in contention for government. In 2019, this seat was 69/78 in Quebec and 284/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, at least half of the population is in the Montcalm Regional County Municipality. The shape is also quite good, not a huge fan of the area around L’Épiphanie. As for individuality, come October, I'm sure there won't be much individuality across the province.

Tomorrow, we'll be in eastern Quebec with Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup!

Montarville (Quebec) 190/338

 Montarville (Quebec)

Today we're back with Montarville!

Montarville has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Chambly—Borduas, Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert and Verchères—Les Patriotes. The population of the riding was 100,515 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Sainte-Julie (30,045 in 2021), Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville (26,273 in 2021), and part of Longueuil. 

Politically, this seat has been perceptive to the several waves Quebec has seen in recent years (NDP 2011, Liberal 2015, Bloc 2019). Throughout much of the Montérégie east of Longueuil, the Liberals haven't been competitive since 2015, however the communities of Longueuil and Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville keep them competitive in this riding. This seat is currently held by Bloc MP Stéphane Bergeron.

This isn't the first time Stéphane Bergeron has been in the House of Commons. Starting in 1993, he represented a riding immediately north of this one until his resignation in November of 2005. He won a by-election for the equivalent provincial riding in 2005, representing Verchères until 2018, when he lost by 827 votes, performing the best amongst losing PQ candidates. In 2019, this seat was 21/78 in Quebec and 70/338 in Canada.

The name is great, Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville is a pretty central and large community. The shape is interesting, municipal boundaries are the reason we have the fun little appendages around the borders. As for individuality, I'm surprised the Liberals are still competitive, but the Longueuil is quite Liberal.

Tomorrow we'll be north of Montreal in Montcalm!

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (New Brunswick) 189/338

 Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe!

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe has existed as a riding since 1968, created from Westmorland. The population of the riding was 101,237 in 2021. The riding contains the city of Moncton (79,470 in 2021), as well as part of Dieppe (28,114 in 2021), and Riverview (20,584 in 2021). The riding was renamed from just Moncton in 1997, despite containing parts of Riverview and Dieppe previously.

Politically, this seat is a solid bet for the Liberals until the Conservatives do very well. Conservatives won in 1968 and 1972 when Robert Stanfield's PC's had command over Atlantic Canada. Their next wins were in 1984 and 2011, Conservative majority elections. Third parties have also had good elections here, the NDP getting within 3,400 votes in 2011 and the Greens placing third in 2019 with just under 18%. This seat is currently represented by minister of official languages, minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, and Liberal MP Ginette Petitpas Taylor.

In the 2015 election, New Brunswick saw all 10 ridings go Liberal after just one was previously. There were some narrow wins that flipped back the next election (3.79% in Fundy Royal, 5.36% in New Brunswick Southwest, 9.59% in Tobique—Mactaquac). However, some incumbents lost hard, namely Bernard Valcourt received just 16.5% in Madawaska—Restigouche, placing third, and Robert Goguen received just 21.5% in this riding, although he had won with just 35.7% in 2011. In 2019, this seat was 4/10 in New Brunswick and 183/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, it names all three municipalities involved in the riding. The shape is okay, I'd rather they choose either Dieppe or Riverview so that only one is shared in another riding. As for individuality, interesting that a riding that is this urban AND Atlantic has been friendly to Conservatives in recent history.

See you soon in Montarville!

Mississauga—Streetsville (Ontario) 188/338

 Mississauga—Streetsville (Ontario)

Today we're at the end of our Mississauga journey, Mississauga—Streetsville!

Mississauga—Streetsville has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Brampton West—Mississauga and Mississauga—West. The population of the riding was 116,864 in 2021. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Streetsville and Meadowvale West as well as parts of Meadowvale and East Credit.

Politically, this seat has been Liberal for all but five years since 2004, with some tight wins for the Liberals. In both 2008 and 2015, the Liberals won by less than 10%. The seat was represented by a Conservative for just over a year from 2007 to 2008 (with a gap in the middle when he was Independent), the Liberals took the seat back in 2008, until the Conservatives won it in the 2011 general election. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Rechie Valdez.

The last woman to represent this riding before Rechie Valdez was Bonnie Crombie. She was first elected in 2008 to the House of Commons, only serving for three years until she lost in 2011 to Brad Butt. She was elected in a municipal by-election to city council in 2011. In 2014, she received the endorsement of long time mayor Hazel McCallion to replace her as mayor, winning by large margins the past two elections. In 2019, this seat was 65/121 in Ontario and 161/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Streetsville is pretty central within the riding. The shape is not my favourite, the Mississauga ridings almost entirely ignore the Credit River. As for individuality, interesting how Bonnie Crombie was only here for three years given her status now.

Tomorrow we'll be back in New Brunswick with Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe!

Mississauga—Malton (Ontario) 187/338

 Mississauga—Malton (Ontario)

Today we're in our penultimate Mississauga riding, Mississauga—Malton!

Mississauga—Malton has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Brampton South—Mississauga, and Mississauga—Streetsville. The population of the riding was 116,908 in 2021. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Malton, Britannia, and part of East Credit.

Politically, this seat was the most Liberal in Mississauga from 2015-2019, however it fell behind Mississauga Centre in 2021. Now, that could've been for a couple factors. Incumbent MP and cabinet minister Navdeep Bains didn't run again, allowing voters who liked him personally to switch to the Conservatives or NDP (both experienced an increase in vote share in 2021). This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Iqwinder Gaheer. 

Navdeep Bains was an MP in Mississauga for almost thirteen years (non-consecutively). In his first term he was parliamentary secretary to Prime Minister Paul Martin. After his return to Ottawa in 2015, he was appointed minister of innovation, science, and technology, leading the front on the 2016 census and COVID-19 vaccines, as well announcing Canada's Digital Charter in 2019. In 2019, this seat was 107/121 in Ontario and 261/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, it contains the bulk of Mississauga as well as the somewhat distant community of Malton. The shape is fine, not a huge fan of the western border. As for individuality, interesting how the riding has been the best for the Liberals and NDP in recent years.

Tomorrow we're in our final Mississauga riding, Mississauga—Streetsville!

Mississauga—Lakeshore (Ontario) 186/338

 Mississauga—Lakeshore (Ontario)

Today we're along Lake Ontario with Mississauga—Lakeshore!

Mississauga—Lakeshore has existed as a riding since 1976, renamed from Mississauga South in 2012. The population of the riding was 117,095 in 2021. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Clarkson, Lorne Park, and Lakeview. There is a big income disparity in this riding, with Lorne Park having an average annual income of $318,000, while Clearview has an average annual income of $85,000. 

Politically, this seat has been the strongest Conservative seat in Mississauga since 2015, although support has slipped in subsequent elections for the Tories. Back to the household income, the Conservatives perform their best in Lorne Park and around the center of the riding where income is higher, while the Liberals perform well on the edges of the riding where the suburbs are lower income. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Sven Spengemann.

This riding has a history of having the same MP for many terms. PC Don Blenkarn represented Peel South and later Mississauga South for five terms, amounting to sixteen years. Liberal Paul Szabo represented Mississauga South from 1993 to 2011, amounting to eighteen years. Conservative Stella Ambler was the anomaly, only being the MP for the area from 2011 to 2015. In 2019, this seat was 39/121 in Ontario and 108/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, it is the only lakeshore riding in Mississauga (and Peel region for that matter). The shape is also pretty good, it uses three natural municipal borders (lake, border with Oakville and border with Toronto). As for individuality, interesting how the riding has been represented by a Liberal for all but four years since 1993, and Sven Spengemann is the first pro-choice MP on record.

Tomorrow we'll be in our penultimate Mississauga riding with Mississauga—Malton!