Humber River—Black Creek (Ontario) 130/338

 Humber River—Black Creek (Ontario)

Today we're back in Toronto (and my home away from home) with Humber River—Black Creek!

Humber River—Black Creek has existed as a riding since Confederation, only not existing from 1904-1917, under the name York West until the most recent redistribution. The population of the riding was 108,037 in 2016. The riding is in the city of Toronto and contains the neighbourhoods of Humber Summit, Jane and Finch, and Humbermede. 

Politically, this seat has had the longest Liberal streak in Toronto, staying Liberal since 1962. One thing that is interesting is the second place party has changed hands every election since 1988, between the Progressive Conservatives, Reform, Conservatives and NDP. The only time the Liberals were in danger of losing the seat was 1962, 1972, and 1984. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Judy Sgro.

Provincially, this seat is held by NDP MPP Tom Rakocevic, the first time the party has held the seat since 1990, coincidentally the last time the party received over 30% of the vote. This seat will be a indicator of what happens in the upcoming provincial election: if the NDP holds it, they likely will have a decent chance of holding onto opposition, if the PC's take it, its an indicator that they will get a bigger majority, if the Liberals take it, they have likely rebuilt their base and the trust in a provincial Liberal government. In 2019, this seat was 121/121 in Ontario and 300/338 in Canada by margin.

I love the name, deciding to rename it from the old "York West" to the current name allows it to think of the riding in a modern context, especially with the shifting demographics. The shape is also pretty good, the natural border with Etobicoke is nice, part of Jane and Finch is cut off in the southwest corner, but it's not the end of the world. Politically, it's cool how Liberal the seat is and how it flipped in 2018.

Tomorrow we're in Western Ontario with Huron—Bruce!