Kitchener South—Hespeler (Ontario) 144/338

 Kitchener South—Hespeler (Ontario)

Today we're finishing our Kitchener adventure with Kitchener South—Hespeler!

Kitchener South—Hespeler (Ontario) has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Cambridge, Kitchener Centre, and Kitchener—Conestoga. The population was 105,309 in 2016. The riding contains the north half of Cambridge and the southeast part of Kitchener. 

Politically, this seat has been a Liberal/Conservative swing seat, not afraid to go either direction, not being that receptive to third party input. The Kitchener part of the riding is typically more Liberal, the Hespeler (former town, now neighbourhood in Cambridge) side is usually more Conservative, but the line has been blurred recently, with both sides being equally Liberal and Conservative. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Valerie Bradford.

An interesting thing to analyze in this riding is household income and how it relates to voting patterns in the 2018 provincial election. By far, the richest neighbourhood in the riding is Deer Ridge, with an median household income of $174k. The neighbourhood gave 55% of their support to the PC's with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied. On the flip side, the NDP performed best in Laurentian Hills/Alpine which have a median household income of around $60k, getting 47% of the vote to the PC's at 27% and Liberals at 16%. In 2019, this seat was 20/121 in Ontario and 64/338 in Canada by margin. 

The name is good, it is (most of) south Kitchener and Hespeler is easier to say than North Cambridge. The shape is okay, just a bit hard to look at, but there is no road that goes all the way across the riding so it is what it is. As for individuality, pretty common as far as Liberal/Conservative flippers, it did get VERY close in 2021, with less than 1,000 votes separating the Liberals and Conservatives.

Tomorrow we're back in BC with Kootenay—Columbia!

Kitchener—Conestoga (Ontario) 143/338

 Kitchener—Conestoga (Ontario)

Today we're in Kitchener—Conestoga!

Kitchener—Conestoga has existed as a riding since 2004. The population was 100,709 in 2016. The riding contains the city of Kitchener, as well as the townships of Wellesley (11,260 in 2016), Wilmot (20,545 in 2016), and Woolwich (25,006 in 2016). The riding previously contained half of what is now Kitchener South—Hespeler.

Politically, this seat has followed a couple national/provincial trends. First, the Ford Effect: in the 2019 election, most of Ontario swung away from the Conservatives, which many theorize to be because of the way Premier Doug Ford was characterized during the election campaign. This seat (and nearby Milton) flipped from the Conservatives to the Liberals in 2019. The second trend is the modern Liberals and their strength in suburbs. In 2019, the Liberals won all but three polling divisions in the Kitchener part of the riding. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Tim Louis.

While the riding hasn't gone through too many changes, the past two elections have been an indication of national trends. In 2015, the two parties in contention held 87% of the vote, down to 79% in 2019 and 78% in 2021. Again, not a huge shift, but when you notice the two main parties slipping that much, it indicates that we could be slipping away from a two party mindset. Then again, the performances were at a similar level in 2004/2006. In 2019, this seat was 2/121 in Ontario and 6/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Conestoga is a local name whose historical significance (and spelling) is up in the air, nevertheless, creative name. As for the shape, not awful, I'd prefer if the riding got rid of Kitchener and just extended down to the part of Cambridge that is in Kitchener South—Hespeler. Individuality, props to the riding for pulling a Florida and flipping when it wasn't supposed to.

See you tomorrow in Kitchener South—Hespeler!

Kitchener Centre (Ontario) 142/338

 Kitchener Centre (Ontario)

Today we're in Kitchener Centre!

Kitchener Centre has existed as a riding since 1997, created from Kitchener and Waterloo. The population of the riding was 105,258 in 2016. The riding is in the city of Kitchener (233,222 in 2016, shared with 3 other ridings).  Kitchener Centre is part of the Waterloo Regional Municipality, the tenth largest census metropolitan area in Canada.

Politically, I'm sure you know what's coming. This seat was typically a Liberal/Conservative flipper, only going against the main two parties from 1968-1974 when NDP MP Max Saltsman's seat was drawn into this one. In 2019, Green candidate Mike Morrice surged into second place behind MP Raj Saini. During the 2021 election campaign, Raj Saini ended his campaign due to sexual harassment allegations, creating a tight three way race. The seat is currently held by Green MP Mike Morrice.

On the topic of Ontario Greens, let's look at their history provincially and where they could make an impact in five months. As of now, the Ontario Greens only hold one seat, that one being Guelph. The only riding where the Greens finished with more than 20% was Parry Sound—Muskoka, which has always been a reliably good seat for them, though never winning it. As for historical performance, the Greens finished second place in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound in 2007 provincially and 2008 federally. While the election might not be one where the Ontario Greens can pick up another seat, it could be one where they build up their support (i.e. a 2007-type election). In 2019, this seat was 38/121 in Ontario and 105/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is perfect, it is the only riding that is purely Kitchener based. The shape is also good, it is the center of Kitchener. As for individuality, we love a seat that breaks that status quo. What should be interesting is seeing what happens in 202x (whenever the next election happens) when the Liberals put forward a candidate that stays in the running.

Tomorrow we're not too far with Kitchener—Conestoga!

Kingston and the Islands (Ontario) 141/338

 Kingston and the Islands (Ontario)

Today we're in Kingston and the Islands!

Kingston and the Islands has existed as a riding since 1968. The population was 117,543 in 2016. The riding contains most of the city of Kingston (123,798 in 2016, shared with Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston), as well as the Frontenac Islands (1,760 in 2016). Kingston is the home of Canada's first prime minister, Sir John A. MacDonald.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/Conservative race, but has recently been taking a progressive turn. The seat was held by the Progressive Conservatives from 1972-1988 until future speaker of the house Peter Milliken won the seat. Milliken stayed in the seat from 1988 until 2011, when the seat was narrowly held by rookie Liberal MP Ted Hsu. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Mark Gerretsen.

The PC that held the seat from 1972-1988 was Flora MacDonald. MacDonald was one of the first women to run for party leadership in Canada, placing fifth in the 1976 PC leadership race. When the PC's formed government in 1979, she became the Secretary of State for external affairs, holding the portfolio after the PC's returned to opposition in 1980. She was vocal in her opposition to the PC/Canadian Alliance, reportedly voting for the NDP in 2004. In 2019, this seat was 88/121 in Ontario and 214/338 in Canada by margin.

I don't like the name, a little clunky, but I guess the only alternative is Kingston—Frontenac. The shape is also a little iffy for me, Highway 401 is a nice border, but I do wish Frontenac County were whole. As for individuality, this riding sure has gone through some shifts, eastern Ontario has gotten increasingly friendly to the NDP and it will probably materialize in this seat in 5-10 years.

See you tomorrow in Kitchener Centre!

Kings—Hants (Nova Scotia) 140/338

 Kings—Hants (Nova Scotia)

Today we're in Nova Scotia with Kings—Hants!

Kings—Hants has existed as a riding since 1968, formerly under the names of Annapolis Valley and Annapolis Valley—Hants. The population was 83,465 in 2016. The population centers are Kentville (6,271 in 2016), Wolfville (4,195 in 2016), and Windsor (3,648 in 2016). The riding is approximately 5.3% Indigenous, with Indian Brook Indian Reserve No. 14 being home to 1,089 Mi'kmaq residents. 

Politically, this seat has typically been a close Liberal/Conservative race, but has pulled away with the Liberals in recent years. Pat Nowlan held the seat as a Progressive Conservative from 1965-1990, when he became an independent, running in 1993, and losing the seat to Liberal John Murphy. Scott Brison won the seat as a Progressive Conservative and as a Liberal, until his resignation in 2019. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Kody Blois.

Scott Brison was first elected in 1997 as a Progressive Conservative, but resigned in 2000 for PC leader Joe Clark to take the seat. As Joe Clark won his seat in Calgary, Brison took this seat back. Brison came out in 2002, becoming the first PC to come out while in office. In 2003, he crossed the floor to the Liberals due to his opposition to the Conservative party merger, citing his opposition to the Canadian Alliance's social conservative positions. Brison became the first openly gay cabinet minister in Canada on July 20, 2004 when he became the minister of public works. In 2019, this seat was 10/11 in Nova Scotia and 172/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, the riding has only half of Kings County, it originally had all of Kings County, but with population growth it was split. The shape is the same reason, I like that Shubenacadie River is a nice border. As for individuality, unfortunately, queer MP's are still few and far between, but Scott Brison helped lead the way (along with queer predecessors Svend Robinson, Réal Ménard and Libby Davies).

Tomorrow we're back in Ontario with Kingston and the Islands!

King—Vaughan (Ontario) 139/338

 King—Vaughan (Ontario)

Today we're in the York Region with King—Vaughan!

King—Vaughan has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Oak Ridges—Markham and Vaughan. The population of the riding was 131,998 in 2016. The riding contains the city of Vaughan (306,233 in 2016, shared with Thornhill and Vaughan—Woodbridge), and King Township (24,512 in 2016). This riding grew over 20% between censuses, with much of the growth happening in the southwest of the riding.

Politically, as with the rest of York Region, it is a Liberal/Conservative battle, but this one is a bit more Liberal than the rest. The seat was held by Liberal MP Maurizio Bevilacqua from 1988 until he resigned in 2010 to run for Mayor of Vaughan (where he has served since). The ensuing by-election was won by Conservative Julian Fantino, a sign of the coming near-sweep the Conservatives would have of the York Region in 2011. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Anna Roberts.

The York Region is imperative for both Liberal and Conservative governments, as such, the past two MP's who have served while their parties were in government served in cabinet in prominent roles. Julian Fantino was only in Parliament for five years, but he served in three different cabinet portfolios (seniors, international cooperation, veterans affairs), as well as serving as associate minister of national defence. Deb Schulte served as minister of seniors during the entirety of the second Trudeau Liberal government. In 2019, this seat was 4/121 in Ontario and 17/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, very simple, but sometimes simple is all you need. The shape is also good, nice clean lines, if more than half the population wasn't in the southeast I'd say I don't like it, but not a huge issue. As for individuality, not super individual, cabinet representation in battleground areas is not super uncommon.

Tomorrow we're back in Nova Scotia with Kings—Hants!

Kildonan—St. Paul (Manitoba) 138/338

 Kildonan—St. Paul (Manitoba)

Today we're back in Manitoba with Kildonan—St. Paul!

Kildonan—St. Paul has existed as a riding since 2003. The population of the riding was 84,077 in 2016. The riding contains part of Winnipeg (705,244 in 2016), as well as East St. Paul (9,372 in 2016), and West St. Paul (5,368 in 2016). The riding has a high Eastern European population with 13% being Polish and 24% being Ukrainian. 

Politically, this seat had been a reliable Liberal seat but has recently taken a turn to the Conservatives. The Liberals won the riding that had been reliable in 1988, a sign of the impending Chrétien majority. It stayed there until 2004 when Jean Chrétien wasn't Liberal leader anymore. It went to the Liberals in 2015 by just 1,239 votes, so it was an easy 2019 Conservative pickup. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Raquel Dancho.

The second-last Liberal to represent the riding was Rey Pagtakhan. In 1988, Rey Pagtakhan was the first Filipino-born Canadian to be elected to the House of Commons, beating 26-year incumbent David Orlikow (who also is worthy of a thread). In 2001, Pagtakhan was appointed Secretary of State (Asia-Pacific), holding a few other cabinet positions after that. Notably, as Minister responsible for Manitoba, he oversaw the projects of the Red River Floodway and the Canadian Museum for Human Rights. In 2019, this seat was 7/14 in Manitoba and 159/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, Kildonan was a local municipal name pre-1972 when Winnipeg absorbed them. The shape is also pretty good, nice rural/suburban split. As for individuality, there is a surprising amount of cabinet representation in this seat and every incumbent has such an interesting story.

We're off this weekend as I'm heading back to school, but we'll be back on Monday with King—Vaughan!

Kenora (Ontario) 137/338

 Kenora (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Kenora!

Kenora has existed as a riding since 2003, created from Kenora—Rainy River. The population was 62,556 in 2016. The riding contains the communities of Kenora (15,096 in 2016), Dryden (7,749 in 2016), and Sioux Lookout (5,272 in 2016). The riding has one of the highest proportions of indigenous residents, with 46.8% of the residents having some aboriginal identity.

Politically, the riding had typically been held by the Liberals until the 21st century. Liberal MP Bob Nault held the seat from 1988-2004, the seat stayed with the Liberals the next two elections but lost it to the Conservatives in 2008. The Bob Nault took it back in 2015, but lost it in 2019 to Eric Melillo. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Eric Melillo.

In 2015, all three competitive parties had senior members of their respective parties. The Conservatives had Harper cabinet minister (and future Ford cabinet minister) Greg Rickford. The NDP had Howard Hampton, former Attorney general and former leader of the Ontario NDP. The Liberals had former Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development Bob Nault. Ultimately, Nault won with Hampton in second and Rickford in third. In 2019, this seat was 13/121 in Ontario and 41/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is basically perfect, it doesn't contain the entire Kenora district, but that's only if you're being very nitpicky. The shape is basically the same reasoning as above, not a huge concern, especially for an underpopulated riding. As for individuality, we love a competitive riding and that 2015 roster is unreal on second glance.

Tomorrow we're in Winnipeg with Kildonan—St. Paul!

Kelowna—Lake Country (British Columbia) 136/338

 Kelowna—Lake Country (British Columbia)

Today we're in Kelowna—Lake Country!

Kelowna—Lake Country has existed as a riding since 1997, created from Okanagan Centre. The population was 119,388 in 2016. The riding contains the city of Kelowna (127,380 in 2016, shared with Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola), as well as the district municipality of Lake Country (12,922 in 2016). Lake Country is the only municipality in BC that uses a ward system for municipal elections. 

Politically, this seat, much like the rest of the BC interior, has typically been safe for the Conservatives. However, in 2015 this seat went to the Liberals, the first time the Liberals have won a seat in the interior since 1974. The Green candidate dropped out early on and threw his support to the Liberals, and the Green Party of Canada didn't nominate a new candidate. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Tracy Gray.

From 2013-2017, Premier Christy Clark represented part of this riding. She lost her seat in Vancouver-Point Grey in 2013, despite the BC Liberals winning a majority government. MLA Ben Stewart vacated his seat for her to run in the by-election. Christy Clark was the premier of BC from March 14th, 2011 until July 18, 2017, becoming the first woman to lead a party into an election win. BC has had a female premier before, Social Credit Rita Johnson was the premier for seven months in 1991 until the 1991 election, where the SoCreds lost almost all of their seats. In 2019, this seat was 24/42 in BC and 120/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is very good, names the two main municipalities in the riding. The shape is also pretty good, goes with a rural/urban split rather than an urban core Kelowna seat. As for individuality, it is cool that the riding flipped in 2015 after staying Conservative for years, and how easily it flipped back in a not great year for Liberals.

Tomorrow we're in Northern Ontario with Kenora!

Kanata—Carleton (Ontario) 135/338

 Kanata—Carleton (Ontario)

Today we're in Kanata—Carleton!

Kanata—Carleton has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created almost entirely from Carleton—Mississippi Mills. The population of the riding was 110,960 in 2016. The riding contains the former city of Kanata (117,304 in 2016), as well as the rural communities of Constance Bay and Carp. This riding grew 10% between 2011 and 2016, second only to Carleton, which grew by 15%.

Politically, this seat has been a bit more Conservative than the rest of the Ottawa suburbs, again second only to Carleton. In 2000 it flipped by under 1,900 votes to the Canadian Alliance. Granted, the riding was much more rural. In 2015, it was picked up by the Liberals, winning the seat by over 50%. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Jenna Sudds.

The MP before Sudds was Karen McCrimmon. Karen joined the Royal Canadian Army Cadets, later joining The Windsor Regiment (RCAC) as a Reservist. This training and service led her to join the Regular Force, becoming an air navigator, the first female to do so. She ran in Carleton—Mississippi Mills in 2011, marginally improving the Liberals' performance. She then went on to win the seat in 2015, retiring from politics in 2021. In 2019, this seat was 19/121 in Ontario and 62/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Kanata now has more than 117,304 people, which probably nets Kanata its own riding next representation order. The shape is also okay, not a big fan of the little arm that sticks out on the eastern edge. As for individuality, not a lot of ridings can say they increased Liberal vote share in 2011.

Tomorrow we're back in BC with Kelowna—Lake Country!

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (British Columbia) 134/338

 Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (British Columbia)

Today we're in Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo!

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo has existed as a riding since 2003. The population was 124,358 in 2016. The population centers are Kamloops (90,280 in 2016), Clearwater (2,324 in 2016), and One Hundred Mile House (1,980 in 2016). The riding has a sizeable indigenous population of 12,925, with 3,021 of those coming from the Kamloops 1 Indian Reserve.

Politically, this seat has had the same placings of the four main parties since 2006 (except 2021). The Conservatives have held the seat since 2000, when they took it from the NDP, the second place party in all but two elections since. The Liberals have been in third for the most part, making 2015 a three way race. The Greens had been in fourth until 2021, but were close to taking third in 2011 and 2019. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Frank Caputo.

As many of you may know, the Kamloops Indian Residential School is the site of where the first bodies of indigenous children were found in May of 2021. In short, the "Indian residential school" system was meant to assimilate indigenous children into colonized culture, and as a result, many indigenous children never made it home, including the estimated 215 from this site. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission Report estimated the number of graves in Canada to be 3,200. In 2019, this seat was 29/42 in BC and 165/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, maybe a tad long, but the riding does contain Kamloops as well as the Thompson and Cariboo regions. The shape is fine, I do wish the way they split the Cariboo region was a little cleaner. As for individuality, it's interesting seeing the different surges and declines and seeing how after twenty years a riding can stay pretty much the same.

Tomorrow we're in Ottawa with Kanata—Carleton!

Jonquière (Quebec) 133/338

 Jonquière (Quebec)

Today we're in Jonquière!

Jonquière was first created in 1979 and was recreated in 2015 after not existing from 2004-2015. The population was 89,818 in 2016. The population centers are Saguenay (Jonquière and Chicoutimi boroughs), Saint-Honoré (5,757 in 2016), and Saint-Ambroise (3,781 in 2016). Similar to Gatineau, the city of Jonquière was amalgamated with the cities of La Baie, Chicoutimi and Laterrière in 2002.

Politically, this seat tends to swing every couple of years. From 1993-2006, it was held by the Bloc, until the Conservatives won it in 2006. The Conservatives held it until 2011 when the NDP won the seat by over 4,000 votes. The NDP held it narrowly in 2015, but lost it to the Bloc in 2019. The seat is currently held by Bloc MP Mario Simard.

In 2015, four seats in this region shared two characteristics: the seat was won with a plurality of less than 34%, and the four parties that won seats in Quebec had more than 16%. As of 2021, three of the four seats are held by the Bloc, who didn't place above third in 2015, and three of the four were won with more than 40%. In 2019, this seat was 27/78 in Quebec and 107/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Jonquière must be over 50% of the population of the riding, although I do wish Saguenay was named federally. The shape is good too, although embedded districts are not uncommon in Canada, I'm glad they didn't embed the Chicoutimi riding by putting Le-Fjord-du-Saguenay in one riding. As for individuality, the swings are not uncommon, but it is surprising how the Liberals didn't win the seat in 2015.

Tomorrow we're back in BC with Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo!

Joliette (Quebec) 132/338

 Joliette (Quebec)

Today we're back in Quebec with Joliette!

Joliette has existed as a riding since Confederation, getting abolished in 1935 and redrawn in 1968. The population was 104,136 in 2016. The population centers are Joliette (20,484 in 2016), Saint-Charles-Borromée (13,791 in 2016), and Rawdon (11,057 in 2016). This riding has a median age of 49.5, compared to the Quebec median age of 42.5.

Politically, this seat tends to stay with one party for a while. From 1917-1958 it was held by the Liberals, from 1974-1993 it was held by the Progressive Conservatives, and from 1993-2011 it was held by the Bloc Quebecois. It was won by the NDP by over 8,000 votes in 2011, but was picked up in 2015 by the Bloc by 2,880 votes. The seat is currently held by Bloc MP Gabriel Ste-Marie.

The MP with the longest tenure in this seat is Roch La Salle. Roch La Salle was elected six times, as a Progressive Conservative and an independent in 1972. For most of his time, he was one of a handful of Tories in Quebec. He resigned his seat to run in the 1981 Quebec election as the leader of Union Nationale. After the party lost all their seats, La Salle returned to Ottawa in the by-election triggered by his resignation. In 2019, this seat was 67/78 in Quebec and 279/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Joliette isn't just the city, it's also the district municipality. Fun fact: there are no federal ridings starting with the letter "I", out of 712 provincial ridings, there are just 6 provincial ridings starting with "I". The shape is good too, good urban/rural divide. As for individuality, it's cool how much name recognition contributes to winning a seat.

Tomorrow we're in Jonquière!

Huron—Bruce (Ontario) 131/338

 Huron—Bruce (Ontario)

Today we're in Huron—Bruce!

Huron—Bruce has existed as a riding since 1953, created from Huron North and Huron—Perth. The population of the riding was 106,570 in 2016. The population centers are Saugeen Shores (13,715 in 2016), Kincardine (11,389 in 2016), and Goderich (7,628 in 2016). The world's largest underground salt mine is in Goderich, and Bruce Power is the world's largest nuclear power plant by output.

Politically, this seat has been mostly Conservative, the only exception being the Liberals holding the seat from 1993-2008. In 2006, when the Liberals lost most of their rural Southern Ontario seats, this was the only one to stay Liberal, mostly due to the communities in Bruce County. The seat was an easy Conservative pickup in 2008, possibly helped along by Liberal MP Paul Steckle retiring. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Ben Lobb.

Another reason the seat stayed Liberal for so long is because of Paul Steckle. He was a city councillor and reeve in Stanley Township (now Bluewater) from 1970-1980 and 1980-1985 respectively. He was first elected to Parliament in 1993. While a Liberal, he was vocal in opposition to certain votes, specifically same-sex marriage, abortion, and gun ownership. In 2019, this seat was 59/121 in Ontario and 143/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, county names are pretty typical in Ontario, and the population centers aren't large enough to be solely named after one. The shape is pretty good, same as above, the shape serves the name pretty well. As for individuality, it is interesting how Liberal some of the population centers still are, even post-Harper. 

Tomorrow we're back in Quebec with Joliette! 

Humber River—Black Creek (Ontario) 130/338

 Humber River—Black Creek (Ontario)

Today we're back in Toronto (and my home away from home) with Humber River—Black Creek!

Humber River—Black Creek has existed as a riding since Confederation, only not existing from 1904-1917, under the name York West until the most recent redistribution. The population of the riding was 108,037 in 2016. The riding is in the city of Toronto and contains the neighbourhoods of Humber Summit, Jane and Finch, and Humbermede. 

Politically, this seat has had the longest Liberal streak in Toronto, staying Liberal since 1962. One thing that is interesting is the second place party has changed hands every election since 1988, between the Progressive Conservatives, Reform, Conservatives and NDP. The only time the Liberals were in danger of losing the seat was 1962, 1972, and 1984. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Judy Sgro.

Provincially, this seat is held by NDP MPP Tom Rakocevic, the first time the party has held the seat since 1990, coincidentally the last time the party received over 30% of the vote. This seat will be a indicator of what happens in the upcoming provincial election: if the NDP holds it, they likely will have a decent chance of holding onto opposition, if the PC's take it, its an indicator that they will get a bigger majority, if the Liberals take it, they have likely rebuilt their base and the trust in a provincial Liberal government. In 2019, this seat was 121/121 in Ontario and 300/338 in Canada by margin.

I love the name, deciding to rename it from the old "York West" to the current name allows it to think of the riding in a modern context, especially with the shifting demographics. The shape is also pretty good, the natural border with Etobicoke is nice, part of Jane and Finch is cut off in the southwest corner, but it's not the end of the world. Politically, it's cool how Liberal the seat is and how it flipped in 2018.

Tomorrow we're in Western Ontario with Huron—Bruce!

 Hull—Aylmer (Quebec)

Today we're in Hull—Aylmer!

Hull—Aylmer has existed as a riding since 1917. The population of the riding was 105,419 in 2016. The riding is in the city of Gatineau and contains the former cities of Hull, Aylmer, as well as the District de Deschenes. In 2002, the Parti Quebecois government merged the cities of Gatineau, Hull, Aylmer, Buckingham, and Masson-Angers. 

Politically, this seat, like most of Ottawa-Gatineau, is reliably Liberal. Since it's inception, it has only elected Liberals all but once. In 2011, longtime NDP member Nycole Turmel defeated 12 year incumbent Marcel Proulx. The only other time the seat hasn't been in Liberal hands is when Gilles Rocheleau crossed the floor to the newly created Bloc Quebecois. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Greg Fergus.

Greg Fergus is one of eight Black MP's in Canada, six Liberals, one NDP, and one Conservative. The first Black Canadian elected to the House of Commons was Lincoln Alexander of Hamilton West, serving in Joe Clark's short-lived cabinet. Today, there are two Black cabinet ministers (Marci Ien and Ahmed Hussen), one Black parliamentary secretary (Greg Fergus), and a former (and presumptively future) Conservative leadership candidate (Leslyn Lewis). In 2019, this seat was 74/78 in Quebec and 293/338 in Canada by margin.

The shape is fine, but the riding does split the community of Le Plateau in half. I like the name, the names of Hull and Aylmer are still used, granted the amalgamation only happened twenty years ago. As for individuality, it will always surprise me how big the orange wave was, especially with a seat in Ottawa-Gatineau which usually stays solidly Liberal.

Tomorrow we're back in Toronto with Humber River—Black Creek!

Honoré-Mercier (Quebec) 128/338

 Honoré-Mercier (Quebec) 

Today we're back in Montreal with Honoré-Mercier!

Honoré-Mercier has existed as a riding since 1987, originally under the name of Anjou—Rivières-des-Prairies. The population of the riding was 103,592 in 2016. The riding contains the borough of Anjou, as well as part of Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles and Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.

Politically, this seat has been pretty solid for the Liberals in recent years. It narrowly went for the Bloc Quebecois in 1993 by just over 500 votes, making it a pretty easy pick up for the Liberals in 1997. They held it steadily until 2011 when the NDP took it with just 36% of the vote, again making it an easy pickup for the Liberals in 2015. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Minister of Canadian Heritage Pablo Rodriguez.

Pablo Rodriguez was first elected in 2004 after two-term MP Yvon Charbonneau decided not to run. During his initial tenure, he was the only Liberal MP from Eastern Montreal. During the 2006 Liberal leadership race, he supported Michael Ignatieff as well as became the Quebec chair for his leadership bid. In 2019, this seat was 73/78 in Quebec and 290/338 in Canada by margin.

The riding is named after the Premier of Quebec of the same name, which is not my favourite thing that Quebec ridings do. The shape is nice, I like the "L" that it makes, but I do wish that it were a bit cleaner at the bottom. The riding is not too different from the other Montreal ridings, however it does typically have southern shore Liberal margins, which is a testament to how surprising it was that it flipped.

Tomorrow we're still in Quebec with Hull—Aylmer!

Hochelaga (Quebec) 127/338

 Hochelaga (Quebec)

Today we're back with Hochelaga!

Hochelaga has existed as a riding from 1867-1988, and then was recreated in 2004 from Hochelaga—Maisonneuve and Laurier—Sainte-Marie. The population of the riding was 106,496 in 2016. The riding contains the boroughs of Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, part of Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, and part of Ville-Marie. Hochelaga was named for the Iroquois village on what is now the Island of Montreal.

Politically, this seat has been closer in recent years. From the Bloc's inception it had held the seat up to 2011 when the NDP swept the region, but the Bloc remained competitive. The seat became a three way race in 2015 when the NDP, Liberals, and Bloc were separated by just over 1,645 votes. It went to the Liberals in 2019 when the NDP collapsed in Quebec, with the Bloc just 328 votes apart. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Soraya Martinez Ferrada.

With the Quebec provincial election happening in just under 10 months, our attention can be turned to the four provincial ridings here. This part of the Island is the more sovereigntist, with the PQ finishing second in three of the four ridings, and Quebec Solidaire winning two of the ridings. The CAQ won Bourget with just 27.57% of the vote, and the Quebec Liberals won Anjou-Louis-Riel with 39.06% of the vote, more than 10 points down from 2014. In 2019, this seat was 2/78 in Quebec and 4/338 in Canada by margin.

In the past I ranked the ridings, but now I will just be using this paragraph to talk about my feelings about the riding. I appreciate the borough being named after an indigenous village and the riding being named as such. The shape is a little interesting, as far as I can tell it isn't a municipal boundary. I also love ridings that swing as much as this one, there is a clear base for the three parties that have held it recently.

Tomorrow we'll be in the neighbouring riding of Honoré-Mercier!