Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) 208/338

Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario)

Today we're back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South!

Northumberland–Peterborough South has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Durham, Northumberland—Quinte West and Peterborough. The population of the riding was 118,756 in 2021. The population centers are Cobourg (20,519 in 2021), Port Hope (17,294 in 2021), and Brighton (12,108 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a good example of a Conservative trending seat that went for the Liberals in 2015. Liberal Kim Rudd ran in the former Northumberland riding in 2011, but won by almost 3 points in 2015, mostly thanks to her support in the lakeshore communities. She held her own in 2019, not losing as much support as other Eastern Ontario Liberal candidates. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Philip Lawrence. 

This riding was relatively untouched in the proposed map the Ontario Federal Electoral Boundaries commission tabled on August 19th, 2022. The riding would gain half of Cavan-Monaghan, specifically the area south of Highway 115. The riding would also lose the Alderville First Nation Reserve. The report is expected to be released by February 9th, 2023. This seat was 10/121 in Ontario and 35/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, the riding is based in Northumberland County and contains part of Peterborough County. The shape is also pretty good, follows the county boundary while tacking on some extra pieces. As for individuality, Eastern Ontario is another breed where the Liberals still get 30+ in "rural" ridings (I know this is not remotely rural, but it sure isn't urban).

Tomorrow, we're up north in Northwest Territories!

North Vancouver (British Columbia) 207/338

 North Vancouver (British Columbia)

Today we're back in BC with North Vancouver!

North Vancouver has existed as a riding since 1988, created from North Vancouver—Burnaby and Capilano. The population of the riding was 123,025 in 2021. The population centers are the city of North Vancouver (58,120 in 2021), the district municipality of North Vancouver (88,168 in 2021, shared with Burnaby North-Seymour), as well as a small part of Metro Vancouver A.

Politically, this seat is a Conservative/Liberal fight, with the Liberals holding it in the past three elections. That is not to say that opposition parties are irrelevant here. In 2019, the Greens received 12.5% of the vote, one of five ridings in the Lower Mainland where they did better than 10%. The NDP had their best performance here in 2021, even better than their 2011 "Orange Wave" performance. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP and Minister of Natural Resources, Jonathan Wilkinson.

One of the provincial ridings within North Vancouver is North Vancouver-Lonsdale, currently represented by Minister of State for Transport, Bowinn Ma. Ma became the first NDP candidate elected on the North Shore since 1991. Since then, Ma has been somewhat of a rising star within the provincial NDP, touted as a possible candidate for the leadership race in 2022. This riding was 28/42 in BC and 153/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is perfect, it contains the entirety of the city and part of the District Municipality. The shape is good, definitely better than the other North Vancouver riding. As for individuality, it is on brand for the rest of the Lower Mainland by being a Conservative riding that has been Liberal in the past few years.

Tomorrow, we'll be back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South!

North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia) 206/338

 North Okanagan–Shuswap (British Columbia)

Today we're back in the BC Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

North Okanagan–Shuswap has existed as a riding since 1988, created from Kamloops—Shuswap and Okanagan North. The population of the riding was 136,520 in 2021. The population centers are Vernon (44,519 in 2021), Salmon Arm (19,432 in 2021), and Coldstream (11,171 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is politically pretty similar to Parry Sound—Muskoka: a solid Conservative riding with a split opposition that has solid Green support. The Greens typically do well in the eastern rural portions, as well as doing well in Vernon in 2019. In 2020, the NDP's 2019 candidate ran for the BC NDP and won Vernon-Monashee by just over 400 votes. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Mel Arnold.

In 2022, the BC Federal Electoral Boundaries commission proposed that the new riding that BC will receive will be placed in the BC interior. The new riding stretches from Vernon down to the downtown core of Kelowna. As such, North Okanagan–Shuswap has expanded to include Revelstoke and the eastern suburbs of Kamloops. In 2019, this seat was 36/42 in BC and 235/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, I like that there are three ridings named after the Okanagan, a fast growing region in BC. The shape is okay, I wish it didn't attach Central Kootenay like that. As for individuality, it's cool seeing the different bases of support for all four parties in the riding.

Tomorrow we'll be back in Metro Vancouver with North Vancouver!

North Island—Powell River (British Columbia) 205/338

 North Island—Powell River (British Columbia)

Today we're starting a little trip through BC's three regions with North Island—Powell River!

North Island—Powell River has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution after existing from 1988-1997. The population of the riding was 111,825 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Campbell River (35,519 in 2021), Comox (14,806 in 2021), and Powell River (13,943 in 2021).

Politically, this seat has typically been an NDP/Conservative marginal seat. The Conservatives have a solid base in Campbell River and in the north of the riding, while the NDP do well in the Comox Valley and in Powell River. In 2006 when the Conservatives formed government, the NDP defeated incumbent MP John Duncan by just 630 votes, but lost by 2,485 votes in 2008. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Rachel Blaney.

It's fitting that we're discussing Vancouver Island on the day that Premier John Horgan announces that he isn't seeking another term as Premier of British Columbia. While I could discuss leadership potential, I'll instead discuss one of the MLA's that make up most of the area. Ronna-Rae Leonard has represented Courtenay-Comox since 2017, winning a seat that hadn't been held by the party since 2001. She actually ran for the federal NDP in 2011 in Vancouver Island North, losing by just 1,827 votes. In 2019, this seat was 9/42 in BC and 51/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, quite descriptive of the region. The shape is good, I hope eventually the entire Comox Valley will be intact. As for individuality, this is definitely a test of the realignment, but it also has gone to the left to a certain extent.

Tomorrow we'll be in the Interior with North Okanagan–Shuswap!

Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario) 204/338

 Nipissing—Timiskaming (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Nipissing—Timiskaming has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Nipissing and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 89,781 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of North Bay (52,662 in 2021), Temiskaming Shores (9,634 in 2021), and East Ferris (4,946 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is usually a Liberal seat with solid Conservative support. In fact, in the past 100 years, it has only been won by Conservatives twice: in 1984 and 2011, both Conservative majorities. Otherwise, this was one of the better results for the PPC in 2019, due to North Bay city councillor Mark King running for the party, receiving almost 2,500 votes. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Speaker of the House Anthony Rota.

Anthony Rota has served in the House of Commons for all but four years since 2004, losing just once in 2011 by just 18 votes. In 2019, Rota was elected the 37th speaker of the House of Commons, the first from Northern Ontario since James Jerome in the 1970's. It should also be noted that Ontario Premier Mike Harris represented this seat from 1981-2002, serving as premier from 1995-2002. In 2019, this seat was 48/121 in Ontario and 123/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, it's almost entirely contained within the Nipissing and Timiskaming Territorial Districts. The shape is fine for the most part, I just wish the Nipissing 10 appendage in the west was a bit cleaner. As for individuality, it's surprising that the seat doesn't flip more than it does. 

Tomorrow we'll be back on the west coast with North Island—Powell River!

Nickel Belt (Ontario) 203/338

 Nickel Belt (Ontario)

Today we're in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!

Nickel Belt has existed as a riding since 1952, created from Algoma East, Algoma—Manitoulin, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sudbury and Timiskaming—Cochrane. The population of the riding was 94,947 in 2021. The riding contains the communities of Greater Sudbury (166,004 in 2021, shared with Sudbury), West Nipissing (14,583 in 2021), and French River (2,828 in 2021). As of the 2016 Census, this riding was >50% bilingual, while the Ontario average was just over 11%.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/NDP fight, but that isn't to say the races have been particularly close. In the last sixty years, it has only been closer than five points in 2006, 1979, and 1965. However, the seat has become friendlier to Conservatives in recent years, they snuck into second place in 2021, helped by their performance in Greater Sudbury. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Marc Serré.

The Serré name goes pretty far back in Northern Ontario and even in Nickel Belt itself. Marc Serré is the son of one-term Nickel Belt Liberal MP Gaetan Serré, winning when all but one seat in Northern Ontario went to the Liberals as part of Pierre Trudeau's first majority government. Interestingly in his re-election bid in 1972, there were over 4,700 rejected ballots, which could've put him over, but he withdrew his request for them to be counted after seeing a sample. Gaetan Serré's brother, Benoît Serré, served as MP for Timiskaming—French River and Timiskaming—Cochrane from 1993-2004. Both Gaetan and Benoît Serré passed away recently, in November 2017 and May 2019 respectively. In 2019, this seat was 23/121 in Ontario and 68/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Northern Ontario and especially Greater Sudbury are nickel-rich and historically has been a big attraction for mining jobs (in 2016, 17% of the men in the riding were miners). The shape is good, I like the provincial version better that is completely surrounding the Sudbury riding. As for individuality, the riding likes to bounce between the Liberals and NDP but the Conservatives are rising, which is common for Northern Ontario.

Tomorrow, we're one riding east with Nipissing—Timiskaming!

Niagara West (Ontario) 202/338

 Niagara West (Ontario)

Today we're back in the Niagara Region with Niagara West!

Niagara West has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Niagara West—Glanbrook, St. Catharines and Welland. The population of the riding was 96,946 in 2021. The riding contains the towns of Grimsby (28,883 in 2021), Lincoln (25,719 in 2021), and Pelham (18,192 in 2021).

Politically, this seat is a classic rural seat that was Liberal during the Reform/PC split years. The rural areas leaned further and further towards the Reform party from 1993-2000, but the Liberals did really well in the urban centres of Grimsby and Pelham. Even when the Conservatives picked the seat up in 2004, the Liberals still overwhelmingly won Pelham. The seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Dean Allison.

Provincially, this seat was held by PC MPP, PC Leader, and Leader of the Opposition Tim Hudak. In 1995, he won the seat by just under 1,200 votes, making him the second youngest MPP, just after John Baird. He served in both Mike Harris and Ernie Eaves' cabinets. In 2009, he won the PC Leadership over Frank Klees, Christine Elliot, and Randy Hillier. He successfully held the Liberal government to a minority in 2011, putting himself in a good position to form government next time around. However, due to some missteps by his campaign, he fell out of favour, leading to a Liberal majority and his resignation in July 2014. In 2019, this seat was 47/121 in Ontario and 122/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is quite good, I think I'd even be okay with something like Lincoln-Pelham. The shape is also great, not the biggest fan of the municipal boundaries on the east, but that's not the biggest issue. As for individuality, it's a Conservative rural Ontario seat that's under populated, not too surprising.

Tomorrow we'll be in Northern Ontario with Nickel Belt!