La Prairie (Quebec) 147/338

 La Prairie (Quebec)

Today we're in southern Quebec with La Prairie!

La Prairie has existed as a riding three separate times, from 1867-1896, from 1968-1997, and 2015 to present. The population of the riding was 105,496 in 2016. The riding contains the cities of Saint-Constant (27,359 in 2016), La Prairie (24,110 in 2016), and Candiac (21,047 in 2016). 

Politically, this seat has been receptive to the recent trends in Quebec. Held by the PC's from 1984-1988, won by the Bloc in 1993 and stayed with them until 2011. Won by the NDP in 2011, swung to the Liberals in 2015, and made its way back to the Bloc in 2019. Worth noting that the Liberals had their best Montérégie performance here in 2011, winning 27% of the vote. This seat is currently held by Bloc MP Alain Therrien.

This seat has very interesting political geography. The east side of the riding (La Prairie, Candiac) tends to vote Liberal while the west side is usually Bloc/2011 NDP. There are a couple factors that push this: the east side has a higher average income ($99k in La Prairie and $135k in Candiac), a higher visible % (10.8% in La Prairie and 11.4% in Candiac), and the riding is right next to the safe Liberal riding Brossard—Saint Lambert. In 2019, this seat was 16/78 in Quebec and 48/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is okay, I do wish that it were called Roussillon, it has most of the region, and I'd rather have a name too broad than one that only represents 20% of the constituents. The shape is also nice, a good clean shape. As for individuality, cool geography but it is pretty typical for a Montérégie seat.

See you soon in Labrador!

La Pointe-de-l'Île (Quebec) 146/338

 La Pointe-de-l'Île (Quebec)

Today we're in Montreal with La Pointe-de-l'Île!

La Pointe-de-l'Île has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Anjou—Rivière-des-Prairies, Hochelaga—Maisonneuve and Mercier. The population of the riding was 106,336 in 2016. The riding contains the city of Montréal-Est (3,850 in 2016), as well as part of the boroughs of Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles and Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.

Politically, this is the safest Bloc Québécois seat on the island of Montreal, holding that title from 2000-2008, only losing the title in 2011 when the seat was lost to the NDP.  The seat was narrowly picked back up by the Bloc in 2015 and has been there since. The seat is currently held by Bloc MP Mario Beaulieu.

This part of the island has always been the most sovereigntist, which can be seen provincially. Before the Parti Québécois lost all their seats on the island in 2018, they held four seats on the island, including two in this riding. Speaking of those ridings, Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is running in Bourget (west side of the riding), which the party only lost by literally 500 votes in 2018. In 2019, this seat was 32/78 in Quebec and 155/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, a bit literal, but also seems to be a regional name (please correct me). The shape is not my favourite, the west side between this and Honoré-Mercier is jagged, but it is also the municipal boundary of Anjou, so there is a reason. As for individuality, I've got to hand it to the riding for being the only Bloc seat on the island.

Tomorrow we're not too far with La Prairie!

Kootenay—Columbia (British Columbia) 145/338

 Kootenay—Columbia (British Columbia)

Today we're in southeastern BC in Kootenay—Columbia!

Kootenay—Columbia has existed as a riding since 1997, created from Kootenay East and Kootenay West—Revelstoke. The population of the riding was 112,354 in 2016. The riding contains the communities of Cranbrook (20,047 in 2016), Nelson (10,572 in 2016) and Revelstoke (7,547 in 2016). Despite the Kootenay region having many rural communities, they still account for almost 150,000 people.

Politically, this seat has taken a sharp left turn recently. The seat was a PC/NDP flipper in the 80's, ultimately going to Reform MP Jim Abbott in 1993, staying with him until 2011 when David Wilks took over. The NDP surged 10 points in 2011, which combined with a weaker Conservative Party in 2015 made for a tight pick-up and a fair losing margin in 2019. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Rob Morrison.

The geography in this riding makes for these tight elections. The Highway 3A/31 corridor from Nelson to Kaslo, with the NDP winning ~60% of the vote in Nelson and the Greens winning second with ~20% in 2019. Further north, Revelstoke is also a bright spot for the NDP, getting ~50% of the vote there in 2019. However, the Conservatives have dominated in Cranbrook and Creston, even in 2015 when they lost the seat. In 2019, this seat was 23/42 in BC and 103/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is great, the Columbia and Kootenay rivers run through the riding (as well as the regional districts containing those names). The shape is also good, unfortunately the two Kootenay Regional Districts and Columbia-Shuswap Regional District are two large to just attach two, so they must be split. As for individuality, it is interesting how it really has surged left while it has gone a little to the right provincially.

Tomorrow we're back in Quebec with La Pointe-de-l'Île! 

Kitchener South—Hespeler (Ontario) 144/338

 Kitchener South—Hespeler (Ontario)

Today we're finishing our Kitchener adventure with Kitchener South—Hespeler!

Kitchener South—Hespeler (Ontario) has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Cambridge, Kitchener Centre, and Kitchener—Conestoga. The population was 105,309 in 2016. The riding contains the north half of Cambridge and the southeast part of Kitchener. 

Politically, this seat has been a Liberal/Conservative swing seat, not afraid to go either direction, not being that receptive to third party input. The Kitchener part of the riding is typically more Liberal, the Hespeler (former town, now neighbourhood in Cambridge) side is usually more Conservative, but the line has been blurred recently, with both sides being equally Liberal and Conservative. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Valerie Bradford.

An interesting thing to analyze in this riding is household income and how it relates to voting patterns in the 2018 provincial election. By far, the richest neighbourhood in the riding is Deer Ridge, with an median household income of $174k. The neighbourhood gave 55% of their support to the PC's with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied. On the flip side, the NDP performed best in Laurentian Hills/Alpine which have a median household income of around $60k, getting 47% of the vote to the PC's at 27% and Liberals at 16%. In 2019, this seat was 20/121 in Ontario and 64/338 in Canada by margin. 

The name is good, it is (most of) south Kitchener and Hespeler is easier to say than North Cambridge. The shape is okay, just a bit hard to look at, but there is no road that goes all the way across the riding so it is what it is. As for individuality, pretty common as far as Liberal/Conservative flippers, it did get VERY close in 2021, with less than 1,000 votes separating the Liberals and Conservatives.

Tomorrow we're back in BC with Kootenay—Columbia!

Kitchener—Conestoga (Ontario) 143/338

 Kitchener—Conestoga (Ontario)

Today we're in Kitchener—Conestoga!

Kitchener—Conestoga has existed as a riding since 2004. The population was 100,709 in 2016. The riding contains the city of Kitchener, as well as the townships of Wellesley (11,260 in 2016), Wilmot (20,545 in 2016), and Woolwich (25,006 in 2016). The riding previously contained half of what is now Kitchener South—Hespeler.

Politically, this seat has followed a couple national/provincial trends. First, the Ford Effect: in the 2019 election, most of Ontario swung away from the Conservatives, which many theorize to be because of the way Premier Doug Ford was characterized during the election campaign. This seat (and nearby Milton) flipped from the Conservatives to the Liberals in 2019. The second trend is the modern Liberals and their strength in suburbs. In 2019, the Liberals won all but three polling divisions in the Kitchener part of the riding. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Tim Louis.

While the riding hasn't gone through too many changes, the past two elections have been an indication of national trends. In 2015, the two parties in contention held 87% of the vote, down to 79% in 2019 and 78% in 2021. Again, not a huge shift, but when you notice the two main parties slipping that much, it indicates that we could be slipping away from a two party mindset. Then again, the performances were at a similar level in 2004/2006. In 2019, this seat was 2/121 in Ontario and 6/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is good, Conestoga is a local name whose historical significance (and spelling) is up in the air, nevertheless, creative name. As for the shape, not awful, I'd prefer if the riding got rid of Kitchener and just extended down to the part of Cambridge that is in Kitchener South—Hespeler. Individuality, props to the riding for pulling a Florida and flipping when it wasn't supposed to.

See you tomorrow in Kitchener South—Hespeler!

Kitchener Centre (Ontario) 142/338

 Kitchener Centre (Ontario)

Today we're in Kitchener Centre!

Kitchener Centre has existed as a riding since 1997, created from Kitchener and Waterloo. The population of the riding was 105,258 in 2016. The riding is in the city of Kitchener (233,222 in 2016, shared with 3 other ridings).  Kitchener Centre is part of the Waterloo Regional Municipality, the tenth largest census metropolitan area in Canada.

Politically, I'm sure you know what's coming. This seat was typically a Liberal/Conservative flipper, only going against the main two parties from 1968-1974 when NDP MP Max Saltsman's seat was drawn into this one. In 2019, Green candidate Mike Morrice surged into second place behind MP Raj Saini. During the 2021 election campaign, Raj Saini ended his campaign due to sexual harassment allegations, creating a tight three way race. The seat is currently held by Green MP Mike Morrice.

On the topic of Ontario Greens, let's look at their history provincially and where they could make an impact in five months. As of now, the Ontario Greens only hold one seat, that one being Guelph. The only riding where the Greens finished with more than 20% was Parry Sound—Muskoka, which has always been a reliably good seat for them, though never winning it. As for historical performance, the Greens finished second place in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound in 2007 provincially and 2008 federally. While the election might not be one where the Ontario Greens can pick up another seat, it could be one where they build up their support (i.e. a 2007-type election). In 2019, this seat was 38/121 in Ontario and 105/338 in Canada by margin.

The name is perfect, it is the only riding that is purely Kitchener based. The shape is also good, it is the center of Kitchener. As for individuality, we love a seat that breaks that status quo. What should be interesting is seeing what happens in 202x (whenever the next election happens) when the Liberals put forward a candidate that stays in the running.

Tomorrow we're not too far with Kitchener—Conestoga!

Kingston and the Islands (Ontario) 141/338

 Kingston and the Islands (Ontario)

Today we're in Kingston and the Islands!

Kingston and the Islands has existed as a riding since 1968. The population was 117,543 in 2016. The riding contains most of the city of Kingston (123,798 in 2016, shared with Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston), as well as the Frontenac Islands (1,760 in 2016). Kingston is the home of Canada's first prime minister, Sir John A. MacDonald.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal/Conservative race, but has recently been taking a progressive turn. The seat was held by the Progressive Conservatives from 1972-1988 until future speaker of the house Peter Milliken won the seat. Milliken stayed in the seat from 1988 until 2011, when the seat was narrowly held by rookie Liberal MP Ted Hsu. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Mark Gerretsen.

The PC that held the seat from 1972-1988 was Flora MacDonald. MacDonald was one of the first women to run for party leadership in Canada, placing fifth in the 1976 PC leadership race. When the PC's formed government in 1979, she became the Secretary of State for external affairs, holding the portfolio after the PC's returned to opposition in 1980. She was vocal in her opposition to the PC/Canadian Alliance, reportedly voting for the NDP in 2004. In 2019, this seat was 88/121 in Ontario and 214/338 in Canada by margin.

I don't like the name, a little clunky, but I guess the only alternative is Kingston—Frontenac. The shape is also a little iffy for me, Highway 401 is a nice border, but I do wish Frontenac County were whole. As for individuality, this riding sure has gone through some shifts, eastern Ontario has gotten increasingly friendly to the NDP and it will probably materialize in this seat in 5-10 years.

See you tomorrow in Kitchener Centre!