Monday, November 29, 2021

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell (Ontario) 115/338

 Glengarry—Prescott—Russell (Ontario)


Today we're in eastern Ontario with Glengarry—Prescott—Russell!


Glengarry—Prescott—Russell has existed as a riding since 1953. The population of the riding was 109,975 in 2016. The population centers are Clarence-Rockland (24,512 in 2016), Russell (16,520 in 2016), and Hawkesbury (10,263 in 2016). 59% of the riding lists French as their mother tongue, which can be attributed to the nearness to Ottawa and Quebec.

Politically, this riding has been Liberal for all but five elections since 1953. In 1957, the seat was won by Progressive Conservative Osie Villeneuve and was won with a narrower margin in the 1958 PC landslide election. In 2006, the seat was won by just 203 votes by Pierre Lemieux, who held the seat until 2015. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Francis Drouin.

Pierre Lemieux was a candidate in the 2017 Conservative Leadership election. His platform included opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. During the campaign he received no endorsements, but did receive endorsements from Campaign Life Coalition and Right Now. Lemieux ultimately placed 7th, his best provincial result was third in Manitoba. In 2019, this seat was 41/121 in Ontario and 111/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.2/10 - I don't know how to fix it, but it's pretty good, just a tad long.
Shape: 6.8/10 - Interesting choice to have Ottawa in the riding, I would've shaved off a part of Ottawa and given it to Carleton.
Individuality: 7.8/10 - Interesting how a riding so rural is so Liberal. Also the francophone factor helps too.
Total: 22.8/30 (76%)

Tomorrow we're back in Alberta with Grand Prairie—Mackenzie!


Saturday, November 27, 2021

Gatineau (Quebec) 114/338

 Gatineau (Quebec)

Today we're in the National Capital Region with Gatineau!


Gatineau has existed as a riding since 1945, created from Hull and Wright. The population of the riding was 107,464 in 2016. The riding contains the city of Gatineau (276,245 in 2016, shared with three other ridings). While the riding is on the Quebec/Ontario border, there is no land connection, the riding is on the shore of the Ottawa River.

Politically, this seat was solidly Liberal since the beginning, only going Progressive Conservative in 1984. However, in 2006, the Bloc were able to sneak ahead and win the seat due to the Liberals slipping. It went NDP in 2011 after being close in 2008. The seat has been reliably Liberal since 2015. The seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Steve MacKinnon.

While most of Ottawa-Gatineau is solid Liberal nowadays, in the 2006 and 2008, you could drive from Ottawa West—Nepean to Gatineau and go through a Conservative riding, NDP riding, Liberal riding, and end in a Bloc seat. If you make that same drive today, you won't leave a Liberal riding. In 2019, this seat was 60/78 in Quebec and 259/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 9.0/10 - Very good name, concise and to the point. Gatineau is in three other ridings, so it isn't higher up.
Shape: 6.7/10 - I don't mind the shape, just not a huge fan of the municipal boundaries.
Individuality: 5.7/10 - For an Ottawa-Gatineau seat, it's pretty individual, surprising Bloc win in 2006.
Total:  21.4/30 (71.3%)

Tomorrow we're not too far with Glengarry—Prescott—Russell!


Friday, November 26, 2021

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (Quebec) 113/338

 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (Quebec)


Today we're in Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine!


Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 75,850 in 2016. The population centers are Gaspé (14,568 in 2016), Chandler (7,546 in 2016), and Sainte-Anne-des-Monts (6,437 in 2016). This is one of the oldest ridings in the country, with 52.5 being the median age, ten years above the Quebec median age.

Politically, this seat has been a Quebec bellwether since 1980. With the seat reporting a few polls ahead of the rest of Quebec (the Magdalen Islands are in the Atlantic time zone), it is an early indicator of how the rest of the province will vote (NDP wave in 2011, Liberal surge in 2015, Bloc strength in 2019). This seat is currently held by Minister of National Revenue and Liberal MP Diane Lebouthillier.

The Gaspé Peninsula is one of the more over-represented regions outside of specific rules (Atlantic, Territories, Northern Ontario). In the 2012 redistribution, it was decided that the eastern Gaspé Peninsula would keep its three ridings, with the region being identified as a region worthy of extra representation. We'll see how the ridings fare in redistribution next year. In 2019, the seat was 7/78 in Quebec and 16/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.8/10 - Generally good, it is a bit long, but the name is in French, so I won't dock too many marks.
Shape: 8.1/10 - Not a huge fan of the western border, but other than that we're fine.
Individuality: 7.8/10 - Pretty individual, I really like finding out what makes ridings "protected".
Total: 24.7/30 (82.3%)

Tomorrow we're in the National Capital Region with Gatineau!


Fundy Royal (New Brunswick) 112/338

 Fundy Royal (New Brunswick)

Today we're in Fundy Royal!


Fundy Royal has existed as a riding since 1917. The population of the riding was 79,943 in 2016. The population centers are Quispamsis (18,245 in 2016), Hampton (4,289 in 2016), and Sussex (4,282 in 2016). The name comes from King and Queen counties, as well as the Bay of Fundy.

Politically, this riding has one of the most solid Conservative voting records in the Atlantic. The riding has only voted Liberal twice since 1917: in 1993 when Paul Zed won the seat and 2015 when Alaina Lockhart won the seat. The Liberal victory in 2015 was one of the narrowest in the Atlantic, just 1,775 votes separated the Liberals and the Conservatives. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Rob Moore.

Provincially, Quispamsis is represented by Premier Blaine Higgs. In 2010, he was first elected to the New Brunswick legislature, serving as minister of finance under Premier David Alward. After four years in opposition, Blaine Higgs' PC's defeated the Liberals to a minority government in 2018 and in 2020 formed a majority government. In 2019, this seat was 6/10 in New Brunswick and 196/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.5/10 - Very creative name, I like the connection to the Bay of Fundy.
Shape: 3.2/10 - I seriously can't stand this shape for some reason, I really wish that Riverview wasn't split, and the curve is gross.
Individuality: 7.5/10 - For a generally non-conservative region of the country, its cool that this riding has such a long history.
Total: 19.2/30 (64%)

See you soon with Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine!



Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Fredericton (New Brunswick) 111/338

 Fredericton (New Brunswick)

Today we're in central New Brunswick with Fredericton!


Fredericton has existed as a riding since 1917, not being named Fredericton until 1988. The population of the riding was 83,303 in 2016. The population centers are Fredericton (58,220 in 2016), Oromocto (9,223 in 2016), and New Maryland (4,174 in 2016). The city of Fredericton is partially in Tobique—Mactaquac.

Politically, hoo boy we've got a swing seat! From 2011 until now, the seat has been held by a Conservative, Liberal, and a Green. Provincially, this seat is represented by the PC's, Greens, and the People's Alliance. The region has been Green since 2014, when New Brunswick Green leader David Coon won his seat here. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Jenica Atwin.

Jenica Atwin was elected in 2019 as a Green, the party's first elected seat outside of British Columbia. In May 2021, she was vocal in her position on the Israel/Palestine crisis. Because of her comments, one of the senior members of the party, Noah Zatzman voiced his opposition to her comments. Because of these comments and the way the party dealt with them, Jenica Atwin crossed the floor to the Liberals on June 10th, 2021. She was re-elected on September 20th, 2021 as a Liberal. In 2019, this seat was 2/10 in New Brunswick and 31/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.4/10 - I'm mostly happy with the name, I'm just annoyed that they don't have the entire city in the riding.
Shape: 3.8/10 - Listen, I understand municipal boundaries are municipal boundaries, but can you seriously look at this and think it's okay? They didn't even fit the entire city in the riding!
Individuality: 10/10 - I mean, what other riding can say they had the same trajectory as this riding?
Total: 22.2/30 (74%)

Tomorrow we're one riding east in Fundy Royal!


Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake (Alberta) 110/338

 Fort McMurray—Cold Lake (Alberta)


Today we're in northern Alberta with Fort McMurray—Cold Lake!


Fort McMurray—Cold Lake has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Fort McMurray—Athabasca and Westlock—St. Paul. The population of the riding was 110,230 in 2016. The population centers are Wood Buffalo (71,859 in 2016), Cold Lake (14,961 in 2016), and Lac La Biche (8,330 in 2016). Fort McMurray is within the specialized municipality of Wood Buffalo.

Politically, this seat has been solidly Conservative since 1958, before that being a Liberal seat. That isn't to say opposition parties haven't had success here. During the Pierre Trudeau days, the Liberals were consistently above 20% and were within 1300 votes of taking the riding in 1968 and hovered around 20-30% during the Chretien years. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Laila Goodridge.

One of the former MP's for the riding is Brian Jean. Brian Jean served in the House of Commons for 10 years, resigning and later becoming the leader of the Wildrose Party of Alberta. The party formed the opposition in the 2015 Alberta election, and after merging with the Progressive Conservatives, Brian Jean lost the leadership race of the United Conservative Party to now premier Jason Kenney. Brian Jean is currently seeking the UCP nomination for the seat vacated by Laila Goodridge. In 2019, this seat was 24/34 in Alberta and 326/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 7.4/10 - I like the name, but I think Wood Buffalo should be incorporated somewhere, and maybe Lac La Biche.
Shape: 4.2/10 - I just can't forgive the south end, even if does follow rivers and roads.
Individuality: 6.7/10 - Cool MP's and occasional closeness, but still very Alberta.
Total: 18.3/30 (61%)

Tomorrow we're in Fredericton, I wonder what we'll talk about...

Sunday, November 21, 2021

Foothills (Alberta) 109/338

 Foothills (Alberta)

Today we're in southwest Alberta with Foothills!


Foothills has existed as a riding since 2012, created from Calgary Southwest, Macleod, and Lethbridge. The population of the riding was 113,227 in 2016. The population centers are Okotoks (28,881 in 2016), High River (13,584 in 2016), and Claresholm (3,780 in 2016). The riding is named for Foothills County, immediately south of Calgary.

Politically, I'm sure you can guess. This seat has been solidly Conservative since 1972. The seat was most recently won by a non-Conservative party in 1968 when Allen B. Sulatycky won the Rocky Mountain seat with 37% support. He lost to future prime minister Joe Clark in 1972 but he gained votes in between elections. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP John Barlow.

From 2008 until the 2014 by-election when John Barlow was first elected, there were three different parties in second place: the Greens in 2008 with 9%, the NDP in 2011 with 10%, and the Liberals in 2014 with 17%, which is the most support a second place party has received since 1993 when the PC's placed second to the Reform Party. In 2019, this seat was 30/34 in Alberta and 333/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 7.8/10 - I don't mind the name, Alberta has every right to name the ridings after the counties, I honestly would be happy with keeping a Rocky Mountain riding.
Shape: 5.7/10 - West side is fine, it's on a border, but the east is gross, even with the idea of county lines.
Individuality: 3.7/10 - Not very individual, I guess a Liberal winning here in 1968 is pretty cool.
Total: 18.2/30 (57.3%)

Tomorrow we're on the opposite side of the province in Fort McMurray—Cold Lake!


Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) 208/338

Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) Today we're back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South! Northumberland–Peterboro...