Compton—Stanstead (Quebec) 72/338

 Compton—Stanstead (Quebec)

Today we're back in Quebec with Compton—Stanstead!

Compton—Stanstead has existed since 1996, created from Mégantic—Compton—Stanstead and Richmond—Wolfe. The population was 105,459 in 2016. The population centers are Coaticook (8,698 in 2016), Windsor (5,419 in 2016), and part of Sherbrooke (161,323 in 2016, shared with Sherbrooke). The riding is named for the namesake municipalities.

Politically, this seat has had an interesting recent history. It went Bloc in 1993 but flipped to the Progressive Conservatives in 1997, which could've been aided by the leader, Jean Charest, having his seat in Sherbrooke. The incumbent PC ran as a Liberal and won, but was defeated by the Bloc, where it stayed from 2004-2011 when the NDP took the seat. The seat has been reliably Liberal since 2015. The seat is currently represented by Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food and Liberal MP Marie-Claude Bibeau.

Marie-Claude Bibeau has held a minister portfolio since Justin Trudeau's first cabinet, starting with Minister responsible for La Francophonie and Minister of International Development, and was shuffled into Agriculture on March 1st, 2019. She is also married to the former mayor of Sherbrooke, Bernard Sévigny, and completed her and completed two degrees at Université de Sherbrooke. In 2019, this riding was 18/78 in Quebec and 54/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 6.7/10 - It's hard when you have a riding with one main population center that is already in another riding. That being said, they tried, so I'll give them that.

Shape: 7.2/10 - Not generally a fan of ridings that encompass others, but it's hard to figure out a way that doesn't make it look awkward. It also follows municipal boundaries, so that's good.

Individuality: 7.7/10 - It's crazy how much the PC's fell off in 2000 after the floor crosser, and a 2004 pickup for the Bloc is interesting too.
Total: 21.6/30 (72%)

See you tomorrow in BC with Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam!

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame (Newfoundland and Labrador) 71/338

 Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame (Newfoundland and Labrador)

Today we're in Newfoundland and Labrador with Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame!

Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 77,680 in 2016. The population centers are Grand Falls-Windsor (14,171 in 2016), Gander (11,688 in 2016), and Lewisporte (3,409 in 2016). As a theatre major, I am legally obligated to mention that the Broadway musical Come From Away is set in Gander.

Politically, this seat has been pretty safe Liberal with some Conservative surprise breakthroughs in the 21st century. In 2002, after George Baker was appointed to the Senate, Progressive Conservative Rex Barnes won the following by-election. In 2021, 17-year incumbent Liberal Scott Simms was defeated by Conservative Clifford Smalls. As such, the riding will be represented by Conservative Clifford Smalls.

Just a quick explanation of Gander's significance, on September 11th, 2001, after the attacks, international planes were forced to land in Gander, a town that had a population of 9,651 at the time. The town suddenly had 6,600 new visitors, equivalent to 66% of the local population. Gander Airport used to be a refueling stop for Trans-Atlantic flights. In 2019, the riding was 3/7 in Newfoundland and 121/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 5.2/10 - I like regional names, but with a name so long I'm not really a fan.

Shape: 7.8/10 - I really don't mind it, the borders are a little suspicious, but I'm fine with it.

Individuality: 8.6/10 - I have to put it this high, almost solely because of Come From Away, but the Conservatives have won it a couple times, so that's important too!

Total: 21.6/30 (72%)

Tomorrow we're back in Quebec with Compton—Stanstead!

Cloverdale—Langley City (British Columbia) 70/338

 Cloverdale—Langley City (British Columbia)

Today we're in a riding very close to me, Cloverdale—Langley City!

Cloverdale—Langley City has existed since the 2012 redistribution, created from Langley, South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale, and Fleetwood—Port Kells. The population was 117,640 in 2016. The population centers are Langley City (25,888 in 2016), and Surrey (517,887 in 2016, shared with four other ridings). This riding grew 17.3% between 2011 and 2016, 3x higher than the provincial average.

Politically, this riding has swung the past three elections between the Liberals and the Conservatives. In 2015, the Liberals took it with an 11% margin over the Conservatives. By the time 2019 came around, the Conservatives took the riding by a 2.5% margin. This past election, the Liberals took the riding back with a 3% margin. This riding will be represented by Liberal MP John Aldag.

This riding can't be mentioned without discussing the former MP of Tamara Jansen. In 2019, five Liberal incumbents in the Lower Mainland were defeated by Conservatives, Tamara Jansen being one of the new MP's. Around April 2021, she sparked controversy around her statements in reference to the conversion therapy bill, specifically using the term "unclean" in reference to LGBTQ+ folks. In 2019, this riding was 4/42 in British Columbia and 22/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.5/10 - This name is pretty simple and easy, differentiating between the two main centers. As new communities emerge, it would be nice to incorporate them too. 

Shape: 7.4/10 - I guess the main issue is with whoever drew the municipal boundaries between Langley City and Langley Township.

Individuality: 8.6/10 - This seat swung by 34 points towards the Liberals in 2015, the most in all of the Lower Mainland in 2015. The flipping has also made it very interesting.

Total: 25.5/30 (85%)

Tomorrow we're in another 2021 flip seat, Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame!

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (Manitoba) 69/338

 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (Manitoba)

Today we're in Manitoba with Churchill—Keewatinook Aski!

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski has existed as a riding since 1935, renamed from the previous Nelson riding. The population was 87,027 in 2016. The major population centers are Thompson (13,678 in 2016), The Pas (5,369 in 2016), and Flin Flon (4,982 in 2016). This riding has the highest percentage of indigenous peoples, 76.3% of the population identifies as indigenous.

Politically, this seat has been safe for the NDP since 1979, with two exceptions: the 1993 Liberal sweep, and the 2006 election. In 2005, NDP MP Bev Desjarlais voted against the Civil Marriage Act (Same-Sex Marriage), and as such was dropped by the party and ran as an independent, allowing the Liberal to win the riding. The riding is currently represented by NDP MP Niki Ashton.

Niki Ashton was first elected in 2008, and was a contender for the leadership of the federal NDP in 2017. Ultimately, she finished third behind Charlie Angus and Jagmeet Singh. Her father, Steve Ashton, was a longtime Manitoba MLA, serving from 1981-2016. He ran for the Manitoba NDP leadership twice, but was defeated both times. In 2019, this seat was 9/14 in Manitoba and 239/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.2/10 - It seems a bit wordy, I'm not quite sure why they changed the name in 2012.

Shape: 6.4/10 - Most of it is borders, so that is fine, but the lake section is just way too messy.

Individuality: 6.7/10 - It's cool how high the indigenous population is, but it is pretty typical for the Canadian north.

Total: 20.3/30 (67.7%)

See you on Monday when we discuss a riding close to my heart, Cloverdale—Langley City!

Chilliwack—Hope (British Columbia) 68/338

 Chilliwack—Hope (British Columbia)

Today we're in the Fraser Valley with Chilliwack—Hope!

Chilliwack—Hope has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon. The population was 100,126 in 2016. The population centers are Chilliwack (73,161 in 2016), and Hope (4,067 in 2016). The Skwah First Nation have several reserves in the riding, namely Schelowat 1, Skwah 4, and Skwali 3.

Politically, the riding has been a pretty safe bet for the Conservatives since 1993, only really being competitive in 2015 when the Liberals were within 9 points of taking the riding. While the seat didn't change hands this election, the NDP swung ten points into second place, absent a Liberal collapse, similar to the 2004/2006 elections. However, this time the Conservatives only received 46%, not the 54/56% they had in the mid-2000's. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Mark Strahl.

Mark Strahl isn't the first Strahl to represent the riding. His father, Chuck Strahl, represented the riding from 1993-2011 when Mark took over. Chuck Strahl served as Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development, and Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communications, serving during Stephen Harper's two minority governments, retiring to let his son run in the 2011 election. In 2019, the riding was 38/42 in BC and 251/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.2/10 - I'm okay with it for the most part, I think I'd be okay if they went with Chilliwack—Fraser Valley.

Shape: 8.4/10 - It follows a lot of the municipal lines and rivers, but some of the east is a little arbitrary, but it's not the biggest deal.

Individuality: 6.7/10 - The riding is pretty typical for the Fraser Valley, but the NDP swing in 2021 sets it apart.

Total: 24.3/30 (81%)

Tomorrow we'll be in Manitoba with Churchill—Keewatinook Aski!

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Quebec) 67/338

 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Quebec)

Today we're in Quebec with Chicoutimi—Le Fjord!

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord has existed as a riding since 1925 (albeit under different boundaries) and has been contested since. The population was 81,639 in 2016. A majority of the population is based in the city of Saguenay (145,949 in 2016, shared with Jonquière), specifically the boroughs of Chicoutimi and La Baie.

Politically, this seat changed hands four times between 2008 and 2018, going from the Bloc in 2008, to the NDP in 2011, to the Liberals in 2015, to the Conservatives in a 2018 by-election. The 2015 election was particularly close, less than 6,400 votes separated the first place and fourth place candidates. The riding is currently held by Conservative MP Richard Martel.

The interesting part in every election just mentioned, the winning party won the urban center of Chicoutimi. When the Conservatives won the seat in 2019, the Bloc won Chicoutimi, but the Conservatives had sufficient rural support to push the riding in their favour. The riding was 8/78 in Quebec and 18/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.4/10 - It makes sense, I just think Chicoutimi would suffice, but I do understand why its named that way.

Shape: 7.1/10 - I appreciate that it follows the municipal lines, but I wish the bottom didn't have that weird little angle in the bottom left.

Individuality: 8.7/10 - Usually the trajectory is Bloc-NDP-Liberal-Bloc, so this is a nice change of pace for volatile Quebec.

Total: 23.2/30 (77.3%)

Tomorrow we're back in the Fraser Valley with Chilliwack—Hope!

Chatham-Kent—Leamington (Ontario) 66/338

 Chatham-Kent—Leamington (Ontario)

Today we're in southwestern Ontario with Chatham-Kent—Leamington!

Chatham-Kent—Leamington has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from three former ridings. The population of the riding was 109,619 in 2016. The population centers are Chatham (43,550 in 2016), Leamington (32,991 in 2016), and Tilbury (4,768 in 2016). The indigenous reserve of Moravian 47 in the north of the riding. 

Politically, this seat has been reliably Conservative since 2006, only getting close in 2015, when the Conservatives beat out the Liberals by just 2,326 votes. The town of Chatham is typically split between the Liberals and Conservatives, while the rest of the communities have traditionally been more Conservative. This seat is represented by Conservative MP Dave Epp.

I want to talk about the People's Party and how they performed in Southwestern Ontario. In a word, surprisingly well. This riding had the best performance for the party in all of Ontario, netting the party just under 8,000 votes, and falling just 115 votes behind the NDP. The average People's Party vote share in rural Southwestern Ontario was 11.3%, up from 2.3% in 2019. This seat was 63/121 in Ontario and 147/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.3/10 - It's pretty harmless, but it is a bit wordy.

Shape: 7.4/10 - Not a really huge fan of following the river, but it works, just a bit squiggly.

Individuality: 6.7/10 - Typical southwestern Ontario riding. Solid red during the Chrétien years that turned solid blue during the Harper years. The PPC number is interesting and lets it stick out.

Total: 23.4/30 (78%)

Tomorrow we're back in Quebec with Chicoutimi—Le Fjord!