Hull—Aylmer (Quebec)

Today we're in Hull—Aylmer!

Hull—Aylmer has existed as a riding since 1917. The population of the riding was 105,419 in 2016. The riding is in the city of Gatineau and contains the former cities of Hull, Aylmer, as well as the District de Deschenes. In 2002, the Parti Quebecois government merged the cities of Gatineau, Hull, Aylmer, Buckingham, and Masson-Angers. 

Politically, this seat, like most of Ottawa-Gatineau, is reliably Liberal. Since it's inception, it has only elected Liberals all but once. In 2011, longtime NDP member Nycole Turmel defeated 12 year incumbent Marcel Proulx. The only other time the seat hasn't been in Liberal hands is when Gilles Rocheleau crossed the floor to the newly created Bloc Quebecois. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Greg Fergus.

Greg Fergus is one of eight Black MP's in Canada, six Liberals, one NDP, and one Conservative. The first Black Canadian elected to the House of Commons was Lincoln Alexander of Hamilton West, serving in Joe Clark's short-lived cabinet. Today, there are two Black cabinet ministers (Marci Ien and Ahmed Hussen), one Black parliamentary secretary (Greg Fergus), and a former (and presumptively future) Conservative leadership candidate (Leslyn Lewis). In 2019, this seat was 74/78 in Quebec and 293/338 in Canada by margin.

The shape is fine, but the riding does split the community of Le Plateau in half. I like the name, the names of Hull and Aylmer are still used, granted the amalgamation only happened twenty years ago. As for individuality, it will always surprise me how big the orange wave was, especially with a seat in Ottawa-Gatineau which usually stays solidly Liberal.

Tomorrow we're back in Toronto with Humber River—Black Creek!

Honoré-Mercier (Quebec) 128/338

 Honoré-Mercier (Quebec) 

Today we're back in Montreal with Honoré-Mercier!

Honoré-Mercier has existed as a riding since 1987, originally under the name of Anjou—Rivières-des-Prairies. The population of the riding was 103,592 in 2016. The riding contains the borough of Anjou, as well as part of Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles and Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.

Politically, this seat has been pretty solid for the Liberals in recent years. It narrowly went for the Bloc Quebecois in 1993 by just over 500 votes, making it a pretty easy pick up for the Liberals in 1997. They held it steadily until 2011 when the NDP took it with just 36% of the vote, again making it an easy pickup for the Liberals in 2015. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Minister of Canadian Heritage Pablo Rodriguez.

Pablo Rodriguez was first elected in 2004 after two-term MP Yvon Charbonneau decided not to run. During his initial tenure, he was the only Liberal MP from Eastern Montreal. During the 2006 Liberal leadership race, he supported Michael Ignatieff as well as became the Quebec chair for his leadership bid. In 2019, this seat was 73/78 in Quebec and 290/338 in Canada by margin.

The riding is named after the Premier of Quebec of the same name, which is not my favourite thing that Quebec ridings do. The shape is nice, I like the "L" that it makes, but I do wish that it were a bit cleaner at the bottom. The riding is not too different from the other Montreal ridings, however it does typically have southern shore Liberal margins, which is a testament to how surprising it was that it flipped.

Tomorrow we're still in Quebec with Hull—Aylmer!

Hochelaga (Quebec) 127/338

 Hochelaga (Quebec)

Today we're back with Hochelaga!

Hochelaga has existed as a riding from 1867-1988, and then was recreated in 2004 from Hochelaga—Maisonneuve and Laurier—Sainte-Marie. The population of the riding was 106,496 in 2016. The riding contains the boroughs of Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, part of Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, and part of Ville-Marie. Hochelaga was named for the Iroquois village on what is now the Island of Montreal.

Politically, this seat has been closer in recent years. From the Bloc's inception it had held the seat up to 2011 when the NDP swept the region, but the Bloc remained competitive. The seat became a three way race in 2015 when the NDP, Liberals, and Bloc were separated by just over 1,645 votes. It went to the Liberals in 2019 when the NDP collapsed in Quebec, with the Bloc just 328 votes apart. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Soraya Martinez Ferrada.

With the Quebec provincial election happening in just under 10 months, our attention can be turned to the four provincial ridings here. This part of the Island is the more sovereigntist, with the PQ finishing second in three of the four ridings, and Quebec Solidaire winning two of the ridings. The CAQ won Bourget with just 27.57% of the vote, and the Quebec Liberals won Anjou-Louis-Riel with 39.06% of the vote, more than 10 points down from 2014. In 2019, this seat was 2/78 in Quebec and 4/338 in Canada by margin.

In the past I ranked the ridings, but now I will just be using this paragraph to talk about my feelings about the riding. I appreciate the borough being named after an indigenous village and the riding being named as such. The shape is a little interesting, as far as I can tell it isn't a municipal boundary. I also love ridings that swing as much as this one, there is a clear base for the three parties that have held it recently.

Tomorrow we'll be in the neighbouring riding of Honoré-Mercier!

Hastings—Lennox and Addington (Ontario) 126/338

 Hastings—Lennox and Addington (Ontario)

Today we're in Hastings—Lennox and Addington!

Hastings—Lennox and Addington has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington and Prince Edward—Hastings. The population of the riding was 94,333 in 2016. The population centers are Loyalist (16,971 in 2016), Napanee (7,439 in 2016), and Belleville (50,716 in 2016, shared with Bay of Quinte).

Politically, this seat has been historically Conservative. When the Liberals have won a majority in modern history, they win this seat. Even though they didn't win the seat, they were very close in 1980, just 1,079 votes separating the Liberals from the PC's. Most recently, Mike Bossio narrowly won the seat by just 225 votes. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Shelby Kramp-Neuman.

The MP before Shelby Kramp-Neuman was Derek Sloan. Derek Sloan won this seat in 2019 with just 41.4% of the vote. After winning his seat, Sloan ran for the Conservative leadership in 2020, getting fourth place and 15.64% of the vote. Sloan was expelled from Conservative caucus in 2021 and sat as an independent until 2021. He ran in Banff—Airdrie in the 2021 federal election, taking just 2.6% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 14/121 in Ontario and 42/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 5.7/10 - All the names make sense, but the name is far too long.

Shape: 4.1/10 - Again, it makes sense, but I can't forgive how ugly it is.

Individuality: 3.8/10 - It's not uncommon for rural Ontario seats to be majority bellwethers.

Total: 13.6/30 (45.3%)

We'll be on a break until January, happy holidays, we'll be back with Hochelaga in 2022!

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas (Ontario) 125/338

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas (Ontario)

Today we're finishing off our Hamilton adventure with Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas!

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 113,024 in 2016. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Ancaster, Dundas, and Meadowvale. Both Ancaster and Dundas were amalgamated into the city of Hamilton in 2001, along with Flamborough, Glambrook, and Stoney Creek.

Politically, this seat has been a Liberal/Conservative seat. It was held by the PC's from 1972-1993 when the Liberals won all but one seat in the province. It only elected Liberals until 2006 when it went Conservative for David Sweet. Most recently it flipped to the Liberals in 2015 and have stayed there since, with relatively no opposition. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP and Minister of Public Services and Procurement Filomena Tassi.

Filomena Tassi first ran for office in the 1995 Ontario provincial election, finishing less than 700 votes behind incumbent MPP David Christopherson. She won this seat in 2015, swinging the seat almost 23 points in her direction. She was appointed Deputy Government Whip in 2017, later getting appointed to be minister of seniors in 2018 and minister of labour in 2019. Most recently, she was appointed minister of public services and procurement in the newest cabinet. In 2019, this seat was 79/121 in Ontario and 190/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 5.2/10 - All the names are relevant, but Ancaster—Dundas would suffice. Name is too long.

Shape: 6.5/10 - Generally good, not a huge fan of having urban Hamilton attached to suburban Ancaster and Dundas.

Individuality: 4.7/10 - Not very individual, ministers are always cool though.

Total: 16.4/30 (54.7%)

Tomorrow we're in Hastings—Lennox and Addington!

 

Hamilton Mountain (Ontario) 124/338

 Hamilton Mountain (Ontario)

Today we're in Hamilton Mountain!

Hamilton Mountain has existed as a riding since 1968. The population of the riding was 104,877 in 2016. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Rolston, Lawfield, and Hill Park. The riding has the highest percentage of visible minorities in the Hamilton ridings, at 23%, however, the minority groups are very split, with Black Hamiltonians being the most represented at just 4.4%.

Politically, this seat has been a close race since 2004, with the main three parties above 20% in all but one election when the Liberals fell to 16% in 2011. Despite it's competitive nature, it tends to stay with one party for some time: the Liberals held it from 1988-2006 and the NDP held it from 2006-2021, with the Liberals winning the seat in the 2021 election. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Lisa Hepfner.

Marion Dewar held this seat for just over a year, losing in the 1988 general election by just 73 votes.  Dewar was the mayor of Ottawa from 1978-1985, becoming the second female mayor of the city. She tried to return to parliament in 1993 by running in Ottawa Centre, however, despite her local notoriety she lost to Liberal Mac Herb. Her son, Paul Dewar went on to represent Ottawa Centre federally from 2006-2015. In 2019, this seat was 17/121 in Ontario and 55/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.2/10 - I like it, the region is notably higher and it is a name that people use for the area, I just wish it was an official name.

Shape: 6.1/10 - Again, not awful, just not a huge fan of the appendage on the left.

Individuality: 8.1/10 - Really cool incumbents and interesting flipping, pretty typical voting pattern for a working class riding.

Total: 22.4/30 (74.7%)

Tomorrow we're finishing off our Hamilton adventure in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas!

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (Ontario) 123/338

 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (Ontario) 

Today we're in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek!

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Hamilton East and Stoney Creek. The population of the riding was 107,848 in 2016. The riding contains the former city of Stoney Creek, as well as the neighbourhoods of Kentley and Grayside. Stoney Creek was amalgamated into the city of Hamilton in 2001.

Politically, this seat has typically been a Liberal seat, held by Liberals from 1962-2006. The party was only ever in trouble of losing the seat in 1980 and 1984, but the opposition has always been split between the NDP in Hamilton and the Conservatives in Stoney Creek. The NDP narrowly took the seat in 2006, holding it until 2015 when former mayor of Hamilton Bob Bratina took the seat back. This seat is currently held by Liberal MP Chad Collins.

Sheila Copps held the seat from 1984-2004. Copps served as the sixth Deputy Prime Minister, as well as holding the cabinet portfolios of Minister of Environment and Minister of Canadian Heritage. She briefly resigned in 1996, keeping good on her promise that she would resign if the government wasn't able to abolish the GST. She lost the nomination in the new Hamilton East—Stoney Creek when fellow MP Tony Valeri argued that because most of his constituents lived in the new riding that she was contesting. In 2019, this seat was 34/121 in Ontario and 95/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.5/10 - I really enjoy the name! (I would be okay with just Stoney Creek).

Shape: 8.2/10 - Generally good, I wish it wasn't as long.

Individuality: 6.7/10 - Typical Hamilton seat, but really cool incumbents!

Total: 24.4/30 (81.3%)

See you tomorrow in Hamilton Mountain!