Hamilton Centre (Ontario) 122/338

 Hamilton Centre (Ontario)

Today we start our Hamilton adventure in Hamilton Centre!

Hamilton Centre has existed as a riding since 2004. The population of the riding was 100,103 in 2016. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Strathcona, Beasley, and Gibson. The riding has the smallest population of the Hamilton ridings, losing 1,829 people between censuses. One factor is the lakeshore, which is heavily industrial with little to no residential housing.

Politically, this seat has been an NDP stronghold since 2004. Federally, the NDP hadn't historically been super strong here, but they have a base here provincially, winning at least one seat here in all but three elections since 1934. In 1988, the Liberals won this seat from the PC's, a seat they hadn't won since 1965, a sign of regrowth and a good election to come in five years. This seat is currently held by NDP MP Matthew Green.

Speaking of provincial politics, I'd be remiss if I didn't discuss Andrea Horwath. She actually first ran for this seat federally in 1997, losing pretty hard against incumbent Liberal Stan Keyes. In 2004, she won a by-election here, swinging the seat over 34 points in her favour. She has been leader of the Ontario NDP since 2009, increasing their popular vote performance in each subsequent election, leading up to the Ontario NDP forming the official opposition in 2018 for the first time since 1987. In 2019, this seat was 68/121 in Ontario and 164/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 10/10 - I have no notes.

Shape: 9.2/10 - Good non-offensive shape, not a huge fan of the sharp corner on the northeast.

Individuality: 5.4/10 - It would be nice if there was some variety and not just parking with one party for a few years.

Total: 24.6/30 (82%)

Tomorrow we're in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek!

Halifax West (Nova Scotia) 121/338

 Halifax West (Nova Scotia)

Today we're in Halifax West!

Halifax West has existed as a riding since 1979, created from Halifax—East Hants. The population of the riding was 96,255 in 2016. The riding contains the communities of Bedford, Fairview, and Rockingham. The riding has grown 10% between censuses, particularly in the Bedford area, and has become the most populated riding in the province, just ahead of Halifax.

Politically, this seat has been Liberal since 2000, but hasn't necessarily been safe. In 1997, it went NDP with the other Halifax seats, but former MP Geoff Regan took it back in 2000, only really being in danger of losing the seat in 2000 and 2011. The NDP were in second from 2000-2008, but the Conservatives took second from 2011-2019, but the NDP took second place back in 2021. The seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Lena Diab.

The previous MP Geoff Regan held the seat for 24 years non-consecutively. He was a parliamentary secretary under Chrétien, becoming Minister of Fisheries under Paul Martin in 2003, staying the portfolio until the Liberals lost power. He was elected Speaker of the House of Commons in 2015, the first Speaker from the Atlantic since 1922. In 2019, this seat was 11/11 in Nova Scotia and 257/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.3/10 - Pretty good, a little lazy, wish there was some reference to Bedford.

Shape: 7.8/10 - I guess the rural parts made sense when the riding had less people.

Individuality: 4.1/10 - Pretty typical urban Atlantic seat, Speaker of the House helps.

Total: 20.2/30 (67.3%)

Tomorrow we start our Hamilton adventure in Hamilton Centre!

Halifax (Nova Scotia) 120/338

 Halifax (Nova Scotia)

Today we're in Halifax!

Halifax has existed as a riding since Confederation, one of the few ridings left with this distinction. The population of the riding was 94,610 in 2016. The riding contains the neighbourhoods of Convoy Place, Spryfield, and Armdale. The riding also contains Sable Island, which is located 300 kilometers southeast of Halifax.

Politically, this seat was a Liberal/Progressive Conservative seat from Confederation until 1997. In 1997, NDP leader and former leader of the Nova Scotia NDP Alexa McDonough won the seat, along with their best performance in the Atlantic. Megan Leslie held it after McDonough, until she lost it to Liberal Andy Fillmore. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Andy Fillmore.

Before 1997, the NDP hadn't had too much success in the Atlantic, they first won a seat here in 1940, on Cape Breton Island. In 1997, they won 8/32 seats in the Atlantic, the closest they've come to since is 2011, when they won 6/32 seats, winning both St. John's seats and 3/4 Halifax seats. In the most recent election, the party didn't win any seats in the Atlantic provinces. In 2019, this seat was 5/11 in Nova Scotia and 116/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.2/10 - Pretty much perfect, but Halifax is larger than just this riding.

Shape: 8.1/10 - Also pretty good, I'd prefer if the seat was a bit more urban, instead of this weird divide.

Individuality: 6.8/10 - Interesting how it flipped so easily in 1997 and has been close since.

Total: 24.1/30 (80.3%)

See you soon in Halifax West!

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (Ontario) 119/338

 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (Ontario)

Today we're in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock!

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock has existed as a riding since 1968, originally named Victoria—Haliburton. The population of the riding was 113,956 in 2016. The population centers are Lindsay (20,713 in 2016), Bobcaygeon (3,525 in 2016), and Beaverton (2,822 in 2016). The riding is largely rural, especially in the Haliburton County portion.

Politically, this seat has been one of the safest Conservative seats in Ontario, being Conservative for all but eleven of the past fifty three years. Those eleven years were during the Chrétien years when the Liberals held all but a handful of Ontario seats. After the Conservative party merged, the riding has gotten progressively more Conservative, save the 2015 election where the Conservatives were knocked down to a 44.8% victory. This seat is currently represented by Conservative MP Jamie Schmale.

Completely unrelated to this riding, today (December 6th) is the anniversary of the fourteen young women murdered on the campus of Polytechnique Montréal. Today we remember their futures that were stolen from them. December 6th in Canada marks the National Day of Remembrance and Action on Violence Against Women. In 2019, this seat was 89/121 in Ontario and 217/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.8/10 - I get it, the name makes sense, but it is much too long. Haliburton—Kawartha will suffice.

Shape: 3.9/10 - It's giving pre-2012 Durham (that isn't a good thing).

Individuality: 4.1/10 - Not too individual, the former MP was a minister, but it is pretty inline with rural Canada and eastern Ontario.

Total: 12.8/30 (42.7%)

Tomorrow we're in Nova Scotia with Halifax!

Haldimand—Norfolk (Ontario) 118/338

 Haldimand—Norfolk (Ontario) 

Today we're in Haldimand—Norfolk!

Haldimand—Norfolk has existed as a riding since 1979, getting redrawn and renamed from 1997-2004. The population was 109,652 in 2016. The population centers are Simcoe (13,922 in 2016), Caledonia (9,674 in 2016), and Port Dover (6,161 in 2016). The riding contains Haldimand and Norfolk counties.

Politically, this riding has remained pretty stagnant since 2004. The last time the riding was close was in 2015, when the Liberals were 7.55% behind the Conservatives. In 2008, the Conservatives only received 40.8%, largely due to Gary McHale running as an independent candidate and getting 10% of the vote. This seat is currently held by Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis.

Leslyn Lewis was first elected into parliament in 2021, taking the open seat from Diane Finley. In 2020, Lewis garnered national attention after running for the Conservative leadership, finishing third, winning the popular vote on the second ballot. Lewis actually ran in the 2015 election, running in Scarborough—Rouge Park, getting 27% of the vote. In 2019, this seat was 86/121 in Ontario and 209/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.8/10 - I do wish that the entirety of both counties were in the riding.

Shape: 8.2/10 - Again, counties are great, but the little appendages are gross.

Individuality: 4.2/10 - On par with most of rural southern Ontario, the Leslyn Lewis factor definitely helps.

Total: 22.2/30 (74%)

Tomorrow we're north in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock!

Guelph (Ontario) 117/338

 Guelph (Ontario) 

Today we're in Guelph!

Guelph has existed as a riding since 1979. The population of the riding was 131,794 in 2016. The riding contains the entire city of Guelph and follows the exact same municipal boundaries as Guelph. This is one of the few ridings in Canada with this characteristic, Ajax being another off the top of my head.

Politically, this seat has been held by the Liberals since 1993, but the opposition parties have moved around quite a bit. In 1997, the PC's were in second, which matched the neighbouring Halton region. In 2008, the four main parties were within 16 points of each other, with the Liberals winning with just 32% of the vote. In 2019, the Greens surged into second place, taking 25% of the vote. This seat is currently represented by Liberal MP Lloyd Longfield.

Provincially, this seat is represented by Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner. Leader since 2009, he has led the party into three general elections, finally winning his seat in Guelph in 2018 with 45% of the vote. The party has made some gains in recent years, winning 8% of the popular vote in 2007, the year before the federal Greens got the same amount in the province. In 2019, this seat was 55/121 in Ontario and 137/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 10/10 - It speaks for itself.

Shape: 9.7/10 - The issue I have is how overpopulated it is, other than that the riding is a 10.

Individuality: 8.9/10 - We love ridings that bounce around, especially under the surface.

Total: 28.6/30 (95.3%)

Tomorrow we're in Haldimand—Norfolk!

Grande Prairie–Mackenzie (Alberta) 116/338

 Grande Prairie–Mackenzie (Alberta) 

Today we're in northern Alberta with Grande Prairie–Mackenzie!

Grande Prairie–Mackenzie has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Peace River. The population of the riding was 117,327 in 2016. The population centers are Grande Prairie (63,166 in 2016), High Level (3,159 in 2016), and Sexsmith (2,620 in 2016). Driving through the entire riding north to south is impossible, there is no way to pass over the portion of Peace River in this riding.

Politically, this seat has been solidly Conservative since 1958, being held by the also conservative Social Credit Party before that. Being rural Alberta, this seat has had two things happen (almost) consistently in the 21st century: Conservatives above 55% support and no other candidate above 20%. An independent candidate by the name of Bill Given received 20% in 2006. That candidate was city councilor and future mayor of Grand Prairie Bill Given. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Chris Warkentin.

I believe I've discussed the Socreds before, but that was in a Quebec context. The Socreds contested their first federal election in 1935, winning all but two seats in Alberta at the time. This election happened the same year the Alberta Socreds won their first of nine elections, winning all but seven seats in the Alberta legislature. In 2019, this seat was 31/34 in Alberta and 335/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.2/10 - I like they acknowledge the urban center as well as the remote stretches of the riding. Some acknowledgement of the Peace Region would be nice.

Shape: 6.8/10 - I understand the purpose of Mackenzie County being included, it just makes for an awkward shape.

Individuality: 2.8/10 - Bill Given getting local notoriety is cool, but it is very rural Alberta.

Total: 18.8/30 (62.7%)

See you soon in Guelph!