Chatham-Kent—Leamington (Ontario) 66/338

 Chatham-Kent—Leamington (Ontario)

Today we're in southwestern Ontario with Chatham-Kent—Leamington!

Chatham-Kent—Leamington has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from three former ridings. The population of the riding was 109,619 in 2016. The population centers are Chatham (43,550 in 2016), Leamington (32,991 in 2016), and Tilbury (4,768 in 2016). The indigenous reserve of Moravian 47 in the north of the riding. 

Politically, this seat has been reliably Conservative since 2006, only getting close in 2015, when the Conservatives beat out the Liberals by just 2,326 votes. The town of Chatham is typically split between the Liberals and Conservatives, while the rest of the communities have traditionally been more Conservative. This seat is represented by Conservative MP Dave Epp.

I want to talk about the People's Party and how they performed in Southwestern Ontario. In a word, surprisingly well. This riding had the best performance for the party in all of Ontario, netting the party just under 8,000 votes, and falling just 115 votes behind the NDP. The average People's Party vote share in rural Southwestern Ontario was 11.3%, up from 2.3% in 2019. This seat was 63/121 in Ontario and 147/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 9.3/10 - It's pretty harmless, but it is a bit wordy.

Shape: 7.4/10 - Not a really huge fan of following the river, but it works, just a bit squiggly.

Individuality: 6.7/10 - Typical southwestern Ontario riding. Solid red during the Chrétien years that turned solid blue during the Harper years. The PPC number is interesting and lets it stick out.

Total: 23.4/30 (78%)

Tomorrow we're back in Quebec with Chicoutimi—Le Fjord!

Châteauguay–Lacolle (Quebec) 65/338

 Châteauguay–Lacolle (Quebec)

Hello friends! We're back after an election with a rather noteworthy riding, Châteauguay–Lacolle!

Châteauguay–Lacolle has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Beauharnois—Salaberry and Châteauguay—Saint-Constant. The population was 97,887 in 2016. The riding is named for the city of Châteauguay and the southern municipality of Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle.

Politically, this riding has a big urban/rural divide, with the northern anglophone city of Châteauguay voting more Liberal and the rural portions of the riding voting for the Bloc. In 2019, this seat had only a 1.2% margin between the Bloc and the Liberals. However, that changed in 2021 when the Bloc flipped the riding by 0.6%. The riding will be represented by Bloc MP Patrick O'Hara.

What makes the flip so important? This was the only flip in Quebec in 2021! In 2019, 26/78 ridings flipped. For a province so volatile, its interesting how only one riding changed. The Conservatives made ground in the Montérégie, but not enough to flip, the NDP made ground in Montreal, but it was a pretty uneventful election in Quebec this time around. In 2019, this seat was 4/78 in Quebec and 13/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.8/10 - Definitely boosted because the biggest city is in the name, I don't mind the Lacolle part, but I do wish the municipality had more than 1,500 people.

Shape: 7.9/10 - It's a bit too jagged for me, but it follows municipal lines, so I can't be too mad.

Individuality: 8.7/10 - Shout out to this riding for standing out and flipping this election.

Total: 25.4/30 (84.7%)

Tomorrow we're back in Ontario with Chatham—Kent—Leamington!

Charlottetown (Prince Edward Island) 64/338

 Charlottetown (Prince Edward Island)

Today we're in the capital of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown!

Charlottetown has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Hillsborough and a small part of Malpeque. The population of the riding was 36,094 in 2016. This riding is the only PEI riding not named for a body of water, even the previous riding name was named for Hillsborough River which runs by Charlottetown. 

Politically, this riding is pretty safe for the Liberals. It has been held by the Liberals since 1988 and has only been close once since then, 2011 when the Conservatives finished 1200 votes behind. Interestingly enough, the second place party has changed in the past three elections, Conservatives in 2011, NDP in 2015, and Greens in 2019. The riding is currently held by Liberal MP Sean Casey.

Provincially, the riding is represented by one Liberal, two Progressive Conservatives, and three Greens. This seat had one of the closest results between the Greens and the Liberals, if just 78 more people voted Liberal in Charlottetown-Brighton, there would've been a dispute between the parties on who would become the official opposition and we wouldn't have had the first Green opposition in Canada. In 2019, this seat was 4/4 in PEI and 201/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 10/10 - Perfect. 

Shape: 7.2/10 - It is okay, I don't know the city limits or what they should be, but it isn't awful.

Individuality: 6.4/10 - The Green wave coming here too is cool, not really too different otherwise.

Total: 23.6/30 (78.7%)

See you in either 4 days or 40, we'll see!

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley (Manitoba) 63/338

 Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley (Manitoba)

Today we're in Manitoba with Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley!

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley has existed as a riding since 1997, created from Winnipeg—St. James and Winnipeg South. The population of the riding was 82,574 in 2016, and contains the western portion of Winnipeg and the rural municipality of Headingly ( 3,579 in 2016). The riding has an older population, about 1 in 5 people (20.7%) are 65 and over, the median age was 44.3 in 2016.

Politically, this seat is naturally Conservative, but under good circumstances for the Liberals (1997, 2000, 2015), it swings to them. The area closest to the city is typically Liberal, and the Conservative support trickles in from the west, so the main goal for each party is getting the area between Winnipeg and Headingley. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Marty Morantz.

The Conservative from 2004-2015 was Steven Fletcher. He served in Stephen Harper's Cabinet with two different portfolios. After losing in 2015, he became a provincial MLA with the Progressive Conservatives. He was ousted from caucus and sat as an independent, until he became the leader of the Manitoba party. He ran again in 2019 under the People's Party banner, netting 4% of the vote. In 2019, this riding was 2/14 in Manitoba and 49/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 2.7/10 - I just don't see why it needs so many names! Winnipeg—Headingley! That's all you need!

Shape: 7.8/10 - On a lighter note, this is a nice shape! Not great, but passable!

Individuality: 6.8/10 - It is cool how it is safe Conservative until it's not.

Total: 17.3/30 (57.7%)

See you tomorrow in Charlottetown!

Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles (Quebec) 62/338

 Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles (Quebec)

Today we're back in Quebec after 23 days with Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles!

Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles has existed as a riding since 1979. The population of the riding was 107,254 in 2016. The riding contains the boroughs of Charlesbourg and La Haute-Saint-Charles. Charlesbourg was initially named Bourg Royal, but was renamed for Charles Borromeo, and La Haute-Saint-Charles is the amalgamation of Lac-Saint-Charles, Saint-Émile, Neufchâtel, Loretteville, and Val-Bélair.

Politically, this riding is more Conservative in the north of the city, and gets a bit more moderate with the Bloc and Liberals in the south of the riding. The riding has been held by the four modern parties that have held seats in Quebec. From 1993-2006, it was a Bloc seat, when the Conservatives held it for all but four of the past 15 years, it went NDP in 2011. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Peter Paul-Hus.

The 1993 winner, Jean-Marc Jacob didn't get the nomination for Charlesbourg. He was somewhat a controversial figure in events surrounding the 1995 Quebec referendum. His replacement, Richard Marceau, served until 2006, when he was defeated by Daniel Petit, who currently serves on the Conservative Party legal commission. The MP that defeated him, Anne-Marie Day, was a re-run candidate from 2008 who placed fourth. In 2019, this seat was 26/78 in Quebec and 106/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.9/10 - Oh, Quebec, I did not miss your names. But in all fairness, they are descriptive of the region, but I think Quebec Nord would suffice.

Shape: 5.7/10 - It isn't awful, but I don't quite understand why the north part along Lac-Saint-Charles has to be there.

Individuality: 7.8/10 - I forgot how much I love the Quebec swings and all these candidates are really notable.

Total: 18.4/30 (61.3%)

See you later today with Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley!

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola (British Columbia) 61/338

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola 

(British Columbia)

Today we're in Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola!

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. Most of the population lives along Okanagan Lake, with West Kelowna (32,665 in 2016), Summerland (8,742 in 2016), and Kelowna (151,957 in 2016, shared with Kelowna—Lake Country). While Merritt only has a population of about 5,000, the city is the convergence of four highways, 5, 5A, 8, and 97C.

Politically, the riding is not as safe as you'd think. In 2015, the Liberal candidate Karley Scott was within 1,500 votes. Whether it was the national sentiment or the fact that the candidate had lived in West Kelowna as a lawyer and federal public servant, it was a 27 point swing nonetheless. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Dan Albas.

One of the predecessor ridings, Okanagan—Coquihalla, was the leader of the Canadian Alliance, Stockwell Day's, riding. Day had served as an MLA in Alberta before moving to federal politics. After the reunification of the federal Conservative Parties, he served in the Harper cabinet as Minister of Public Safety and Minister of International Trade. In 2019, the riding was 34/42 in BC and 215/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.2/10 - I know the riding is large, but I feel West Okanagan would suffice.

Shape: 5.7/10 - I'll give the riding the benefit of the doubt, it is a mountainous area that could be necessary to draw that way.

Individuality: 7.4/10 - I like how big it swung and it's cool that a riding can be equally urban and rural and competitive.

Total:  17.3/30 (57.7%)

See you tomorrow in Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint Charles!

Central Nova (Nova Scotia) 60/338

Central Nova (Nova Scotia)

Today we're in Central Nova Scotia with, well, Central Nova!

Central Nova has existed as a riding from 1968-1997 and 2004-present. The population centers are New Glasgow (18,665 in 2016), Antigonish (5,002 in 2016), and Pictou (2,711 in 2016). The population is older on average, 23% of the riding is 65 and over, with a quarter of Antigonish being 65 and over.

Politically, the riding has only ever been held by the Liberals or the Conservatives, but the Greens and the NDP have both been close to taking the riding. In 2008, Green Party leader Elizabeth May ran here, netting 32% of the vote. Other prominent politicians who have served here are Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Conservative leadership hopeful Peter MacKay. The riding is currently held by Liberal MP Sean Fraser.

With the Nova Scotia election coming up, I'll update on the current standings and the projections for the provincial ridings within this federal one. The ridings are currently represented by three PC's and three Liberals, and is projected to be the same in this election. The PC leader, Tim Houston serves in Pictou East. In 2019, the seat was 8/11 in Nova Scotia and 158/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.6/10 - It's quite literal. I kind of wish it was Pictou-Eastern Shore.

Shape: 5.7/10 - I don't hate it, the borders just feel arbitrary.

Individuality: 7.7/10 - I like that so many prominent politicians have ran here and even ran against eachother.

Total: 22/30 (73.3%)

See you tomorrow in Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola!