Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Brampton West (Ontario) 35/338

 Brampton West (Ontario)

Today we're in our final Brampton riding, Brampton West!


Brampton West has existed as a riding since 2003, and was first contested in the 2004 election. The riding contains the westernmost portion of Brampton. The population of the riding was 130,000 in 2016. In 2006, the riding had the highest percentage of people of Jamaican origin in Canada, at 13.2%.

Politically, the riding is the same as every other Brampton riding. This riding, however, was exceptionally close in 2008, with Kyle Seeback finishing 231 votes behind Andrew Kania after a judicial recount. Kyle Seeback came back in 2011, however and won the riding by a 6,000 vote margin. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Kamal Khera.

The riding will probably be safe for the Liberals for a few elections, but second place has narrowed up between the Conservatives and NDP, going from a 17.7 margin to a 5.5 margin with the Conservatives in front. That being said, the Liberals still held 35% of the vote in 2011, which could be attributed to the long history of electing Liberals in that riding. In 2019, the riding was 104/121 in Ontario and 252/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.3/10 - It's pretty good, although I will offer Brampton-Sandalwood or Brampton-Bovaird.
Shape: 7.5/10 - I'd say it's pretty good, it follows the streets, but it doesn't mean I like the streets.
Individuality: 6.4/10 - I love how close the margin was in 2008, but the riding is still the same as the rest of Brampton.
Total: 22.2/30 (74%)

Thanks for joining me on my journey through Brampton, see you tomorrow in Brandon-Souris!


Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Brampton South (Ontario) 34/338

Brampton South (Ontario)

Today we're in our penultimate Brampton riding, Brampton South!


Brampton South has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 121,188 as of 2016. The riding is on the border of Brampton and Mississauga as well as Halton Hills. The eastern portion is very suburban, whereas the western portion closer to Halton Hills is more rural.

Politically, the riding is the same story as the rest of Brampton. One thing of note is that both in 2015 and 2019, this riding had the best performance for the Conservatives in Brampton, 35 points in 2015 and 28 points in 2019. This could be due to Kyle Seeback being on the ballot three elections in a row, he lost in 2008 and 2015, but held the seat from 2011-2015. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Sonia Sidhu.

This riding was won by a majority in 2015 and was won by a plurality in 2019. It shares this characteristic with Brampton East. Oddly enough, Brampton North was won by a plurality in 2015 and a majority in 2019. Brampton West was won by a majority both times, and Brampton Centre was won by a plurality both elections. In 2019, this riding was 84/121 in Ontario and 203/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.6/10 - This riding out of all the cardinal ridings makes the most sense to me. Brampton-Davis would still be better though.
Shape: 6.1/10 - This is probably my least favourite shape. I know it follows streets, but it just doesn't look right.
Individuality: 7.3/10 - I do love a good regionalism, and the 2015 result where there's a large blue suburb is so satisfying.
Total: 22/30 - (73.3%)

See you tomorrow in our last Brampton riding, Brampton West!


Monday, July 12, 2021

Brampton North (Ontario) 33/338

 Brampton North (Ontario)


Today we're in Brampton North!


Brampton North has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 118,180 in 2016. This riding is the smallest in the Brampton area, at 33.11 square kilometers, and by extension the densest. While the riding is largely suburban, there is also quite a bit of green space, with Heart Lake Conservation Park and Conservation Drive Park both on the west side of the riding.

Politically, the riding is very similar to the rest of Brampton, solid Liberal except for 2011. Unlike the other ridings, this is the only riding in Brampton that increased the Liberal vote in 2019. This could be due to Parm Gill who had run several times before in the GTA and was the incumbent in 2015. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Ruby Sahota.

The MP before Parm Gill was also a Liberal named Ruby, Ruby Dhalla, which Gill used against Ruby Sahota in the general election campaign, citing Ruby Dhalla's policies, which Ruby Sahota was clear she didn't stand for. In the end, Ruby Sahota got the last laugh, swinging the seat over 20 points to win the Liberals the riding. In 2019, the riding was 94/121 in Ontario and 224/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 7.7/10 - Yes, it is the most north, but I'd really like if it was named Brampton-Heart Lake.
Shape: 6.7/10 - Pretty non-offensive, at least the jutting out bits have clean corners.
Individuality: 5.6/10 - It's cool that the Liberals increased their vote share in 2015, but that isn't enough to rank it higher.
Total: 20/30 (66.7%)

See you tomorrow in Brampton South!



Sunday, July 11, 2021

Brampton East (Ontario) 32/338

 Brampton East (Ontario)

Today we're one riding over in Brampton East!


Brampton East has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population of the riding was 122,000 in 2016. The riding is the only federal electoral district with a South Asian majority (65.8% in 2016). It also has the highest percentage of Sikhs (33.7%) and Hindus (19.5%) of any riding in Canada. 

Politically, the riding has been solid for the Liberals in every election except for 2011. In 2011, the riding was won by the Conservatives with the NDP swinging 24 points and finishing only 539 votes behind. Who was the NDP candidate? None other than current NDP leader Jagmeet Singh! He won the riding in the provincial election the same year. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Maninder Sidhu. 

I don't talk about provincial politics often, but it's worth mentioning how wide the swing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton was in 2011 for the NDP. Prior to this, the NDP had never had a seat in the Peel Region, now they have three. Now, this isn't reflected in federal seats, but in the region, the NDP gained a net 3.95% versus the -1.48% for the Liberals and -4.97% for the Conservatives. In 2019, the riding was 83/121 in Ontario, and 202/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.9/10 - It is the most east, so I'm not too mad, but I wish they were a bit more creative.
Shape: 8.2/10 - I really like it! Clean corners, mostly straight lines, minimal juts out.
Individuality: 5.3/10 - It is on par with the region, but you can see where the NDP went into second in front of the Conservatives.
Total: 22.4/30 (74.6%)

See you tomorrow in Brampton North! (Link for Brampton results here.)


Brampton Centre (Ontario) 31/338

 Brampton Centre (Ontario)

Today we're in the Greater Toronto Area with Brampton Centre!


Brampton Centre as a riding has existed since the 2012 redistribution. It had previously existed from 1997-2004, but under very different boundaries. The population of the riding was 102,270 in 2016. The riding is almost a plurality minority, Brampton as a whole has a 44% South Asian population, this riding having a 38% Asian population (which includes groups other than South Asian).

Politically, the riding has been safe for the Liberals every time it has been contested. When the riding was under the name Brampton-Springdale, it had gotten increasingly closer from 2004-2011 when the Conservatives flipped the riding in 2011. While there are polls here and there that went Conservative, they were all swept by the Liberals in 2019. The riding is currently represented by Independent MP Ramesh Sangha. 

As you probably know, there was only one independent elected in 2019, Jody Wilson-Raybould. Ramesh Sangha was ousted from the Liberal Caucus on January 25th, 2021 for accusing several Liberal MP's of supporting the Khalistan (Sikh separatist) movement. It is unclear if Ramesh Sangha is planning on running again as an independent. In 2019, the riding was 81/121 in Ontario and 195/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.5/10 - I don't really know what to say, if it was a bit more central I'd be happier with the name.
Shape: 6.4/10 - It juts out a bit at the northeast which I don't like, and I wish it hugged the 407 a bit more.
Individuality: 3.7/10 - When there are 5 ridings that all essentially vote the same way, it'll be hard to find individuality.
Total: 18.6/30 (62%)

See you later today with Brampton East!


Friday, July 9, 2021

Bow River (Alberta) 30/338

 Bow River (Alberta)

Today we're back in Alberta with Bow River!



Bow River has existed as a riding since 1914, and has been dissolved and re-created twice since its creation. The population centers are Chestermere (19,887 in 2016), Brooks (14,451 in 2016), and Strathmore (13,756 in 2016). The riding is largely rural, but Chestermere is considered a commuter town to Calgary. The riding also contains Siksika 146 indigenous reserve, the largest indigenous reserve in Canada after Blood 148.

Politically, I'm sure you know the story. We're in rural Alberta, so this is the Tories bread and butter. The polls were all won by the Conservatives in 2019 except for the three that encompass the Siksika First Nation, two by the Liberals, one by the NDP. The riding is currently held by Conservative MP Martin Shields. (Take a look at that mustache, go off King.)

One interesting thing is that this riding was represented by a few other parties before the Tories took over in 1958. Edward Joseph Garland represented the riding from 1921-1935 under the banners of Progressive, United Farmers of Alberta, and Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. The riding was held by the Social Credit party from 1935-1958. In 2019, the riding was 33/34 in Alberta and 337/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating: 
Name: 7.8/10 - I really like ridings named after landscape pieces, we know this, the only reason it isn't higher is because it's a long river that isn't just in this riding.
Shape: 2.7/10 - This might seem harsh, but it has to be done. It's just so squiggly and gross and cuts around places that could be dealt with differently.
Individuality: 4.1/10 - I do like the contrast in the middle where you can see where the reserve is.
Total: 14.6/30 (48.6%)

See you tomorrow with our first Brampton riding, Brampton Centre!


Thursday, July 8, 2021

Bourassa (Quebec) 29/338

 Bourassa (Quebec)

Today we're in Montreal again with Bourassa!


Bourassa as a riding has existed since 1968. It contains the borough of MontrĂ©al-Nord (84,234 in 2016) and the northeastern portion of the Ahuntsic-Cartierville borough (134,245 in 2016, shared with Ahuntsic-Cartierville). The riding has the highest proportion of Haitian-Canadians in the country, at 17.9% as of 2016.

Politically, this riding has been safe for the Liberals since 1997, when Denis Coderre became the MP, where he stayed until 2013 when he resigned to become the Mayor of Montreal. The only time since 1997 that the Liberals were within a 10 point margin of losing was (predictably) in 2011 when the NDP were within 8 points of taking the riding. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Emmanuel Dubourg.

A little background on Dubourg, he, like many of his constituents, is originally from Haiti. He was born in Saint-Marc and moved to Canada in 1974. He taught at various universities before being elected to the Quebec National Assembly, where he stayed for 6 years until he was elected to Parliament in a by-election prompted by Denis Coderre's resignation. In 2019, the riding was 66/78 in Quebec and 277/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:
Name: 8.6/10 - I like that there's a reason it's named after a person, Boulevard Henri-Bourassa runs through the riding.
Shape: 8.2/10 - I also really like the minimal corners and the following the streets as well.
Individuality: 6.2/10 - Pretty par for the course in terms of Montreal ridings, but I do like that a riding named after a Quebec nationalist hasn't elected a Quebec nationalist since 1993.
Total: 23/30 (76.7%)

See you tomorrow in Bow River!



Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) 208/338

Northumberland–Peterborough South (Ontario) Today we're back in Ontario with Northumberland–Peterborough South! Northumberland–Peterboro...