Bonavista-Burin-Trinity (Newfoundland and Labrador) 28/338

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity (Newfoundland and Labrador)

Today we're back in Newfoundland with Bonavista—Burin—Trinity!

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. The population centers (if you can call them that) are Clarenville-Shoal Harbour (6,291 in 2016), Marystown (5,316 in 2016), and Bonavista (3,448 in 2016). The riding consists of the Bonavista Bay area, Burin Peninsula and the Trinity Bay area.

Politically, the riding has been held by the Liberal Party since 1988. This is pretty on par with the rest of Newfoundland, who last elected a Conservative in 2011, and that was by a 79 vote margin. The elections have been pretty wide for the most part, with the exceptions of 2006 and 2019, both around 5 point margins. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Churence Rogers.

The MP before him was Judy Foote, former Minister of Public Services and Procurement, the current Lieutenant Governor of Newfoundland and Labrador. She was in Parliament from 2008-2017 when she resigned due to family reasons. Her re-election in 2015 was the largest of the entire election, she received 82% of the vote. In 2019, the riding was 1/7 in Newfoundland and 59/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.5/10 - I LOVE ridings named after the physical region, I wish there was a little less, but what can you do.

Shape: 8.4/10 - It's honestly really good. I love the straight line on the West side.

Individuality: 5.9/10 - The re-election margin in 2015 is insane, but it is also pretty typical of the rest of Atlantic at the time.

Total: 21.8/30 (72.6%)

See you tomorrow in Quebec with Bourassa! (We have a week off after this it's okay.)

Berthier—Maskinongé (Quebec) 27/338

 Berthier—Maskinongé (Quebec) 

Today we're in Quebec with Berthier—Maskinongé!

Berthier—Maskinongé has existed as a riding in its current form since 2003. The population centers are Lavaltrie (13,657 in 2016), Louiseville (7,152 in 2016), and Trois-Rivières (114,203 in 2016, shared with Trois-Rivières). The riding is equal parts suburban and rural, being anchored by Suburban Montreal and Trois-Rivières, as well as having quite a few small communities in the north of the riding.

Politically, the riding has been a solid bet on the Bloc until recent years, being represented by the Bloc Quebecois from 1993-2011. In 2011 with the NDP Quebec sweep, the riding was picked up with an almost 30 point swing. It stayed with the NDP until 2019 when the Bloc took it back by less than 3 points. The riding is currently represented by Bloc MP Yves Perron.

This riding had one of the smaller NDP losses in 2019, only 2.67 points between the Bloc and the NDP. It shows in the poll level data as well. All the polls were won by the Bloc and the NDP, the NDP's strength was in small communities along the Saint Lawrence and in the Eastern rural portion, but the Bloc's win lays in the Western suburbs of Montreal and the Northwest of the riding. In 2019, the riding was 11/78 in Quebec and 25/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.2/10 - Historical County + Current Regional Census Municipality turns out pretty good in my book.

Shape: 3.2/10 - I don't know what to say, the portion around Lac-Sans-Bout is particularly gross.

Individuality: 8.3/10 - I do find it cool that the NDP stayed competitive here even with their downfall in Quebec.

Total: 18.7/30 (62.3%)

See you tomorrow in our next Newfoundland riding, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity!

Beloeil—Chambly (Quebec) 26/338

 Beloeil—Chambly (Quebec) 

Today we're still in Quebec with Beloeil—Chambly!

Beloeil—Chambly has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, getting created from the riding of Chambly-Borduas. The largest municipalities are Chambly (29,120 in 2016), Beloeil (22,458 in 2016), and Marieville (10,725 in 2016). The riding is a largely suburban riding, being 27 km from Montreal.

Politically, the riding had historically been a Conservative/Liberal race until February 1990 when NDP candidate Phil Edmonton swung the seat over 35 points towards the NDP. Unfortunately for the NDP, the seat swung away from him by almost 65 points (!). From 1993 until 2011, the seat had been held by the Bloc until the NDP swept Quebec in 2011. In 2019, the riding was won back by the Bloc Quebecois. The riding is currently represented by Bloc MP Yves-François Blanchet.

If that name sounds familiar, that's because he is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois as January 2019. Before entering federal politics, he had been elected twice as a Parti Quebecois MNA (Member of National Assembly) and served as Quebec's Minister of Sustainable Development, Environment, Wildlife, and Parks from 2012-2014. Mr. Blanchet swung the seat the most of all the major party leaders (+23) which is really a testament to the Bloc's strength in 2019. In 2019, the riding was 55/78 in Quebec and 242/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.9/10 - I really don't have any major criticism. Using the largest municipalities is tried and true and we stan.

Shape: 6.2/10 - I wish it were better. It isn't awful, it just could be better.

Individuality: 7.5/10 - The riding is cool with how wide it swings when it swings. It was also very close in 2015 which is cool too.

Total: 22.6/30 (75.3%)

See you tomorrow with another Quebec riding, Berthier—Maskinongé!

Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis (Quebec) 25/338

 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis (Quebec)

Today we're staying in Quebec with Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis!

Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis was first created in 2003 and kept the same boundaries in 2012, but changed its name from Lévis-Bellechasse to its current name. The population centers are Lévis (143,414 in 2016, shared with Lévis—Lotbinière), Saint-Henri (5,023 in 2011), and Lac-Etchemin (4,061 in 2011). The riding is across the St. Lawrence from Quebec City.

Politically, the riding is solidly Conservative. The rurality of the southern portion of the riding keeps it Conservative, even when the NDP swept in Quebec and in the city of Lévis. Similar to Beauce, the second place party in the riding has changed in the past four elections, following trends at the time (strong BQ support in 2008 and 2019, NDP sweep in 2011, and Liberal sweep in 2015.) The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Steven Blaney.

The first time the riding voted Conservative was in 2006, when the riding swung 27.35% to the Conservatives from the Bloc, making this one of the ridings that were part of the Conservative breakthrough in 2006, going from zero seats to nine. A little unrelated, but the last time a non-Conservative party won a poll in the rural portion of the riding was in 2004. In 2019, the riding was 54/78 in Quebec and 241/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 6.1/10 - It's not as bad as it looks, it is named after the Regional County Municipalities, so props for that, but still a tad too long for my liking.

Shape: 4.7/10 - The jagged edges are very gross, it's not like there are huge communities in any of those areas.

Individuality: 5.1/10 - It is the typical story of a city being split and the rural parts of the riding pushing the riding to the right/towards the Conservatives.

Total: 15.9/30 (53%)

See you tomorrow in Beloeil-Chambly!

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel (Quebec) 24/338

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel (Quebec)

Today we're in Quebec with Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel!

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel has existed as a riding since 1968 under the name Richelieu. The largest municipalities are Sorel-Tracy (34,755 in 2016), Becancour (12,438 in 2011), and Nicolet (7,828 in 2011). The riding also includes the lands of the Abenaki peoples, namely Odanak and Wôlinak. The riding runs along the St. Lawrence River and Lac Saint-Pierre.

Politically, this riding has been held by the Bloc Quebecois for the past 30 years (barring a few months). The only time the riding was close was in 2011 when the margin was less than 1500 votes between the Bloc and the NDP, which is a testament to how many seats flipped from the NDP to the Bloc (45!). The riding is currently represented by Bloc Quebecois MP Louis Plamondon.

Speaking of Louis Plamondon, he is the Dean of the House, having been first elected in 1984 as a Progressive Conservative, becoming Independent in 1990, crossing to become a Bloc Quebecois MP the same year, leaving the Bloc Caucus in 2018 to form the Groupe parlementaire québécois in protest of the Bloc's leader at the time, Martine Ouellet, and returning to the Bloc caucus in 2018. In 2019, the riding was 72/78 in Quebec and 289/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.2/10 - It's fine, just too many names. Maybe something in reference to Lac Saint-Pierre since quite a few people live near it.

Shape: 5.3/10 - It's not awful, the only major issue is the South, just very jagged.

Individuality: 7.9/10 - It's crazy how this is one of the most consistently Bloc Quebecois seats, and the Dean of the House being from here is pretty cool.

Total: 17.4/30 (58%)

See you tomorrow in Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis!

Beausejour (New Brunswick) 23/338

 Beauséjour (New Brunswick)

Today we're back in New Brunswick with Beauséjour!

Beauséjour has existed as a riding since 1968 (under the name Kent-Westmorland) under very similar boundaries. The population centers Moncton (71,889 in 2016, shared with Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe), Shediac (6,664 in 2016), and Sackville (5,331 in 2016). The southern edge borders Nova Scotia and the eastern coast runs along the Northumberland Strait.

Politically, this riding had one of, if not THE biggest Green swing as part of the Green wave of 2019. The greens won all of the polls in Sackville as well as a few around the area surrounding Richibucto.  However, the riding stayed with the Liberals due to their strength in the Moncton suburbs and Shediac, as well as the rural portions the Conservatives didn't win. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP and Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, Dominic LeBlanc.

Speaking of Minister LeBlanc, he isn't the first Liberal LeBlanc to represent the riding. His father, Romeo LeBlanc represented the riding from 1972-1984. While in office, Romeo LeBlanc held four different ministries, the position of Speaker in the Senate, as well as becoming the 25th Governor General of Canada in 1995. In 2019, the riding was 5/10 in New Brunswick and 189/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.1/10 - I'm not too familiar with New Brunswick region names, but it seems like there are some locations named Beausejour around the area.

Shape: 5.4/10 - The coast is fine, but the rest feels gross to me. But it kinda looks like PEI, so props for that.

Individuality: 8.2/10 - I find the swing and the whole Green wave in general really cool, but the regionalism is also pretty cool too.

Total: 20.7/30 (69%)

See you tomorrow in Becancour-Nicolet-Saurel.

Beauport-Limoilou (Quebec) 22/338

 Beauport—Limoilou (Quebec)

Today we're one riding over from yesterday, Beauport-Limoilou!

Beauport-Limoilou has existed as a riding since 2003 and was reshaped in 2012 to the riding's current shape. The riding contains the Eastern portion of Quebec City, namely the boroughs of Limoilou (107,885 in 2016), and Beauport (74,881 in 2006). The riding is the smallest and by extension the densest in Quebec City. 

Politically, the riding has flipped in the past 3 elections. As well, in the past 6 elections, the riding has had a 5 point margin in 4 of those elections. ALSO, in the past two elections, it has been a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, Liberals, and the NDP in 2015, and the Bloc in 2019 replaced the NDP in the three-way race. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Quebecois MP Julie Vignola.

If I'm not mistaken, this is our first three-way race. I find situations like this really interesting, trying to observe the trends that made this happen. In this case, the Bloc win can be attributed to the return of the Bloc in 2019, and the Liberals and Conservatives being in the race can also be attributed to their majority wins in 2011 and 2015. In 2019, the riding was 13/78 in Quebec and 39/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.6/10 - I like names that are based off neighbourhoods, especially when you kind of have to in urban centers.

Shape: 6.4/10 - I wish it followed the roads a bit better, but I appreciate the effort.

Individuality: 8.5/10 - I really like tight races and seeing why they happen, especially when they're between more than one party.

Total: 22.5/30 (75%)

See you tomorrow in a riding that sounds like it should be in Quebec, Beausejour! (I know New Brunswick is bilingual, don't come for me.)