Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (Ontario) 8/338

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (Ontario)

Today we're back with another Ontario riding, Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing!

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing as a riding has existed since 2003, getting territory from Algoma—Manitoulin and Timmins-James Bay. The largest municipalities are Elliot Lake (10,741 as of 2016), Kapuskasing (8,292 as of 2016), and Hearst (5,070 as of 2016). It is the 3rd largest riding in Ontario by area at 100,103 square kilometres. Fun fact: Academy Award winning director James Cameron is from the namesake Kapuskasing!

Politically, the riding (and equivalent ridings) had been held by the Liberals for *checks notes* 73 YEARS?? Another astonishing thing about the riding is that it had been represented by six MP's, one of those being the 14th Prime Minister of Canada, Lester B. Pearson. However, the Liberals lost the seat in 2008 to the NDP. The seat is currently held by NDP MP Carol Hughes.

On a regional level, the votes are very spread out and diverse. In the area immediately south of Sault Ste. Marie, there is a very heavy Conservative presence, in the community of Hearst there is a strong Liberal presence, but the NDP victory gets handed to them with their strong presence in Kapuskasing and Elliot Lake, as well as the rural regions of the riding. In 2019, the riding was 61/121 in Ontario and 145/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 6.4/10 - The riding does include the Algoma and Manitoulin Districts as well as the town of Kapuskasing, but I wish they stuck with Algoma-Manitoulin, and even that is too much for me. 

Shape: 4.8/10 - I know it's for population density, but I really don't like ridings within ridings so I have an issue with the Sault Ste. Marie portion as well as basically the entire border with Timmins-James Bay.

Individuality: 7.6/10 - I find rural ridings that go to parties other than Conservatives interesting, trying to figure out what sets the riding apart with the voting bloc here. Also James Cameron helps quite a bit. I love Titanic.

Total: 18.8/30 (62.6%)

Come back tomorrow when we're back in Quebec with Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation!

Alfred-Pellan (Quebec) 7/338

 Alfred-Pellan (Quebec)

After one day away, we're back to Quebec with Alfred-Pellan!

Alfred-Pellan has been in place as a riding since 2003, being previously named Laval East. We are entering the Quebec trend of ridings being named after people! Alfred-Pellan is named after, well, Alfred Pellan, Quebec painter and artist whose work spanned from art galleries,  theatre costumes, and illustrations in books. Alfred-Pellan is in Laval, a suburb north of Montreal.

Politically, Alfred-Pellan is quite diverse like other Quebec ridings (who knew having four major parties in a province would make things competitive.) In the past ten years, it has been held by the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois, and twenty years before that, it was held by the Progressive Conservatives. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Angelo Iacono.

There is *some* regionalism in the riding, the less densely populated areas went to the Bloc Quebecois, the more dense areas closer to the Riviere Des Prairies skewing heavily Liberal (Election Atlas). Similar to Abitibi—Témiscamingue, even though the riding has had diverse representation, it has had pretty wide margins of victory, the last time it went to the Bloc was the thinnest margin at less than 10 points. The riding was 40/78 in Quebec and 181/338 in Canada in 2019.

Rating:

Name: 4.6/10 - I'm not too sure how I feel about ridings being named for historical figures. On the one hand, he DID live in Aueteuil, Laval in the 1950's, so points for that, but I feel like a riding named for him would be more relevant in Quebec City or Montreal proper, where they have more ridings to name after whoever they want.

Shape: 7.2/10 - Almost everything is okay as it is shaped by the river, but I wish the west side was a bit cleaner with the neighbouring ridings. 

Individuality: 5.6/10 - I think as far as suburban ridings it is pretty typical, but the elasticity is interesting and does set it apart to some extent.

Total: 17.4/30 (58%)

Join us tomorrow for our next Ontario riding, Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing!

Ajax (Ontario) 6/338

 Ajax (Ontario)

Today we have our first Ontario riding of our trip, Ajax!

Ajax as a riding has been in place since the 2012 redistribution, taking the entire town of Ajax out of the Ajax-Pickering riding. The riding, as seems obvious, encapsulates the entire town of Ajax, which is the most densely populated town in the Durham region at 1,634.2 per square kilometre. (2011 Census)

Politically, Ajax swung almost 18 points to the Liberals in 2015 due to their very strong support in suburban areas. The seat (and equivalent previous seats) has been held by Liberal MP Mark Holland since 2000 except for 2011-2015 when it was represented by Conservative MP Chris Alexander, who subsequently lost re-election in 2015. Mark Holland is the Chief Government Whip of the House of Commons. 

The seat has been trending to the left, mostly due to the rise of the suburbs and commuter cities/communities. This is a riding that has had a pretty reliable Liberal voting bloc, the main reason the Tories picked up the seat is the loss of Liberal trust and the gain of NDP and Conservative support. In 2019, the riding was 108/121 in Ontario and 262/338 in Canada.

Rating:

Name: 10/10 - This is how you name a riding! Using the town limits as the shape leaves no outskirts to take into account when naming.

Shape: 8.3/10 - Just because it uses the town limits, doesn't mean I'm a fan of them. I appreciate the three clean edges, just not really feeling the suburbs that jut out. 

Individuality: 4.4/10 - Very typical for a suburban commuter riding. Increasingly Liberal, less Conservative presence. The median age of 36.2 in 2011 is fairly interesting, but not enough to make it higher up.

Total: 22.7/30 (75.6%)

Tomorrow we're heading back to Quebec with Alfred-Pellan!

Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Quebec) 5/338

 Ahuntsic-Cartierville (Quebec)

Today, we're exploring our first metropolitan riding, Ahuntsic-Cartierville!

 

Ahuntsic-Cartierville has been in place as a riding since the 2012 electoral redistribution from 80% of the Ahuntsic riding and 20% of the Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. The riding contains virtually all of the Ahuntsic-Cartierville borough, barring the Sault-au-Récollet neighbourhood. It is the 23rd smallest electoral riding by size, but contains 117,447 people as of the 2016 Census. 

Politically, it has become more Liberal since the 2015 federal election. From the 2011 redistribution results, it was a tight three-way race between the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, and the NDP. In 2015, the Liberals gained a swing of over 15 points to win with a 16.8 margin over the NDP. The riding is represented by Liberal MP, Melanie Joly, Minister of Economic Development and Official Languages. 

Historically, the Ahuntsic riding has been competitive between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party. From 2006-2015, the riding was represented by Bloc MP Maria Mourani who was ousted from the party in 2013 and sat as an independent and ran as an NDP candidate in 2015. During her three successful elections, she never won more than 40% of the vote. The seat was 59/78 in Quebec and 258/338 in Canada.

Rating:

Name: 8.9/10 - Not much to say here, it does encapsulate virtually an entire borough with that name. I'm not too familiar with Montreal or Quebec in general so I don't know how to make it better.

Shape: 7.4/10 - Like above, it does encapsulate an entire neighbourhood, but the west side where Boulevard Toupin juts out of the Saint-Laurent riding seems a little gross to me. 

Individuality: 5.6/10 - Get familiar with this story: Montreal riding, Competitive between Bloc/Liberals/NDP, 2015: Liberal swing-2019: NDP falls out of race, margin gets wider for Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. 

Total: 21.9/30 (73%)

Join us tomorrow with our first of 121 Ontario ridings, Ajax!

Acadie-Bathurst (New Brunswick) - 4/338

Acadie-Bathurst (New Brunswick)

Our next riding is our first Atlantic riding, Acadie-Bathurst!

Acadie-Bathurst has been in place since the 2012 redistribution, gaining a small portion from Miramichi-Grand Lake. The population centers are the namesake Bathurst (30,424 as of the 2016 Census), Tracadie-Sheila (16,000 as of the 2011 Census), as well as the coastal towns of Caraquet, Lamèque, and Shippagan.

Politically, the riding was held by the NDP for almost 20 years until the Liberal sweep of the Atlantic in 2015. More specifically it was held by Yvon Godin for 18 years. When he retired, mayor of Maisonette, Jason Godin (no relation) ran in his place and the seat swung over 30 points to the Liberals. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Serge Cormier.

This riding is one where the incumbent is very favoured. Yvon Godin improved on his margin in all but one of his six elections. As well, this is one of the seats where the Liberals gained ground in 2019, sweeping all the population centers that the NDP had won. This seat was the widest margin of victory in 2019 in NB and 270/338 in Canada.

Rating:

Name: 8.4/10 - We have our first historical name! Acadie is the name of a former French colony that comprised the Maritimes. That combined with Bathurst gives us a pretty good name by all accounts.

Shape: 7.3/10 - It's hard to get annoyed with the shape of coastal ridings, but one thing that is controllable is the edge with Madawaska-Restigouche, it's not like there's a big population there, from what I can tell it's just a few rural communities.

Individuality: 6.2/10 - It's cool how big of a swing there was (I guess not for the NDP) in 2015, but other than that it is pretty on par with other Atlantic ridings.

Total: 21.9/30 (73%)

Join us tomorrow with our first city riding, Ahuntsic-Cartierville!

Abitibi—Témiscamingue (Quebec) 3/338

 Abitibi—Témiscamingue (Quebec)

Our third riding of our trip isn't too far from the last, Abitibi—Témiscamingue!

 

Abitibi—Témiscamingue has been in place as a riding in its current form since 2013, losing a small territory to Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou in the 2012 redistribution. It is anchored by population centers in Rouyn-Noranda (42,334 as of the 2016 Census), Amos (17,090 as of the 2011 Census), and La Sarre (7,719 as of the 2011 Census). 

Politically, it has had pretty diverse representation, having been represented by every major party in Quebec in the past 25 years, the shortest term being by the Liberals for one year as the result of a by-election after the passing of Bloc MP Pierre Brien. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Quebecois MP Sébastien Lemire.

This riding is hard to pin down by its diverse federal representation. Despite its diverse representation, elections are not close. The last time this riding (or at least the equivalent of it) had less than a 10 point margin was in 1988. In 2019, it was 45/78 in Quebec and 198/338 in Canada in terms of closeness.

Rating:

Name: 7.8/10 - The name is good, but I wish it was named after a different municipality, given Témiscaming has a population of 2,431 (2016 Census)

Shape: 6.7/10 - It's fine, I just hope they reshape it a bit to make it a cleaner edge with Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou next time they redistrict. 

Individuality: 6.3/10 -  In terms of rural Quebec ridings, it's pretty par for the course, the interesting part is the political elasticity.

Total: 20.8/30 (69.3%)

We're heading southeast to New Brunswick tomorrow with Acadie-Bathurst!

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (Quebec) 2/338

 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (Quebec)

Our next riding is Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou.

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou is the third largest federal riding by size, larger than the Yukon territory. The riding of Abitibi was created in 1966 and was redistricted into its current riding in 2003. The largest city is Val-d'Or at 32,491 residents (2016 Census) and the riding also contains several indigenous nations (Chisasibi, Eastmain, Mistissini, Nemiscau, Waskaganish, Waswanipi and Wemindji). 

Politically, Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou is not immune to trends. In 2011, the NDP picked up the seat from the Bloc Quebecois, the seat was held in 2015 by less than 5 points. But by the 2019 election and the major loss of support for the NDP in Quebec, the seat swung 18 points towards the Bloc Quebecois. 

The poll-by-poll results reveal an interesting trend of a Liberal north, an NDP west coast, and a very dense support for the Bloc in the cities of Chibougamau and Val-d'Or. (Election Atlas) The riding was 22/78 in Quebec and 76/338 in Canada and is currently represented by Sylvie Bérubé.

Rating:

Name: 3.4/10 - Ok. So the names all have relevance, and it is a very large area, but COME ON. 4 names??? I don't even know how to fix it, the cities aren't large enough to define it around that.

Shape: 7.0/10 - I like coastal ridings, seeing how it fits in with the shape of the country as a whole, I just wish it was a cleaner edge with Abitibi—Témiscamingue. 

Individuality: 8.1/10 - I'm impressed by the sheer size and how there is a city in this goliath that is larger than every US state except Alaska. I also am very satisfied with the regional electoral trends. 

Total: 18.5/30 (61.6%)

Speaking of Abitibi—Témiscamingue, we'll be exploring that riding tomorrow, see you then!