Charlottetown (Prince Edward Island) 64/338

 Charlottetown (Prince Edward Island)

Today we're in the capital of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown!

Charlottetown has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Hillsborough and a small part of Malpeque. The population of the riding was 36,094 in 2016. This riding is the only PEI riding not named for a body of water, even the previous riding name was named for Hillsborough River which runs by Charlottetown. 

Politically, this riding is pretty safe for the Liberals. It has been held by the Liberals since 1988 and has only been close once since then, 2011 when the Conservatives finished 1200 votes behind. Interestingly enough, the second place party has changed in the past three elections, Conservatives in 2011, NDP in 2015, and Greens in 2019. The riding is currently held by Liberal MP Sean Casey.

Provincially, the riding is represented by one Liberal, two Progressive Conservatives, and three Greens. This seat had one of the closest results between the Greens and the Liberals, if just 78 more people voted Liberal in Charlottetown-Brighton, there would've been a dispute between the parties on who would become the official opposition and we wouldn't have had the first Green opposition in Canada. In 2019, this seat was 4/4 in PEI and 201/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 10/10 - Perfect. 

Shape: 7.2/10 - It is okay, I don't know the city limits or what they should be, but it isn't awful.

Individuality: 6.4/10 - The Green wave coming here too is cool, not really too different otherwise.

Total: 23.6/30 (78.7%)

See you in either 4 days or 40, we'll see!

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley (Manitoba) 63/338

 Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley (Manitoba)

Today we're in Manitoba with Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley!

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley has existed as a riding since 1997, created from Winnipeg—St. James and Winnipeg South. The population of the riding was 82,574 in 2016, and contains the western portion of Winnipeg and the rural municipality of Headingly ( 3,579 in 2016). The riding has an older population, about 1 in 5 people (20.7%) are 65 and over, the median age was 44.3 in 2016.

Politically, this seat is naturally Conservative, but under good circumstances for the Liberals (1997, 2000, 2015), it swings to them. The area closest to the city is typically Liberal, and the Conservative support trickles in from the west, so the main goal for each party is getting the area between Winnipeg and Headingley. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Marty Morantz.

The Conservative from 2004-2015 was Steven Fletcher. He served in Stephen Harper's Cabinet with two different portfolios. After losing in 2015, he became a provincial MLA with the Progressive Conservatives. He was ousted from caucus and sat as an independent, until he became the leader of the Manitoba party. He ran again in 2019 under the People's Party banner, netting 4% of the vote. In 2019, this riding was 2/14 in Manitoba and 49/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 2.7/10 - I just don't see why it needs so many names! Winnipeg—Headingley! That's all you need!

Shape: 7.8/10 - On a lighter note, this is a nice shape! Not great, but passable!

Individuality: 6.8/10 - It is cool how it is safe Conservative until it's not.

Total: 17.3/30 (57.7%)

See you tomorrow in Charlottetown!

Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles (Quebec) 62/338

 Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles (Quebec)

Today we're back in Quebec after 23 days with Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles!

Charlesbourg—Haute—Saint Charles has existed as a riding since 1979. The population of the riding was 107,254 in 2016. The riding contains the boroughs of Charlesbourg and La Haute-Saint-Charles. Charlesbourg was initially named Bourg Royal, but was renamed for Charles Borromeo, and La Haute-Saint-Charles is the amalgamation of Lac-Saint-Charles, Saint-Émile, Neufchâtel, Loretteville, and Val-Bélair.

Politically, this riding is more Conservative in the north of the city, and gets a bit more moderate with the Bloc and Liberals in the south of the riding. The riding has been held by the four modern parties that have held seats in Quebec. From 1993-2006, it was a Bloc seat, when the Conservatives held it for all but four of the past 15 years, it went NDP in 2011. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Peter Paul-Hus.

The 1993 winner, Jean-Marc Jacob didn't get the nomination for Charlesbourg. He was somewhat a controversial figure in events surrounding the 1995 Quebec referendum. His replacement, Richard Marceau, served until 2006, when he was defeated by Daniel Petit, who currently serves on the Conservative Party legal commission. The MP that defeated him, Anne-Marie Day, was a re-run candidate from 2008 who placed fourth. In 2019, this seat was 26/78 in Quebec and 106/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.9/10 - Oh, Quebec, I did not miss your names. But in all fairness, they are descriptive of the region, but I think Quebec Nord would suffice.

Shape: 5.7/10 - It isn't awful, but I don't quite understand why the north part along Lac-Saint-Charles has to be there.

Individuality: 7.8/10 - I forgot how much I love the Quebec swings and all these candidates are really notable.

Total: 18.4/30 (61.3%)

See you later today with Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley!

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola (British Columbia) 61/338

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola 

(British Columbia)

Today we're in Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola!

Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution. Most of the population lives along Okanagan Lake, with West Kelowna (32,665 in 2016), Summerland (8,742 in 2016), and Kelowna (151,957 in 2016, shared with Kelowna—Lake Country). While Merritt only has a population of about 5,000, the city is the convergence of four highways, 5, 5A, 8, and 97C.

Politically, the riding is not as safe as you'd think. In 2015, the Liberal candidate Karley Scott was within 1,500 votes. Whether it was the national sentiment or the fact that the candidate had lived in West Kelowna as a lawyer and federal public servant, it was a 27 point swing nonetheless. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Dan Albas.

One of the predecessor ridings, Okanagan—Coquihalla, was the leader of the Canadian Alliance, Stockwell Day's, riding. Day had served as an MLA in Alberta before moving to federal politics. After the reunification of the federal Conservative Parties, he served in the Harper cabinet as Minister of Public Safety and Minister of International Trade. In 2019, the riding was 34/42 in BC and 215/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 4.2/10 - I know the riding is large, but I feel West Okanagan would suffice.

Shape: 5.7/10 - I'll give the riding the benefit of the doubt, it is a mountainous area that could be necessary to draw that way.

Individuality: 7.4/10 - I like how big it swung and it's cool that a riding can be equally urban and rural and competitive.

Total:  17.3/30 (57.7%)

See you tomorrow in Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint Charles!

Central Nova (Nova Scotia) 60/338

Central Nova (Nova Scotia)

Today we're in Central Nova Scotia with, well, Central Nova!

Central Nova has existed as a riding from 1968-1997 and 2004-present. The population centers are New Glasgow (18,665 in 2016), Antigonish (5,002 in 2016), and Pictou (2,711 in 2016). The population is older on average, 23% of the riding is 65 and over, with a quarter of Antigonish being 65 and over.

Politically, the riding has only ever been held by the Liberals or the Conservatives, but the Greens and the NDP have both been close to taking the riding. In 2008, Green Party leader Elizabeth May ran here, netting 32% of the vote. Other prominent politicians who have served here are Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Conservative leadership hopeful Peter MacKay. The riding is currently held by Liberal MP Sean Fraser.

With the Nova Scotia election coming up, I'll update on the current standings and the projections for the provincial ridings within this federal one. The ridings are currently represented by three PC's and three Liberals, and is projected to be the same in this election. The PC leader, Tim Houston serves in Pictou East. In 2019, the seat was 8/11 in Nova Scotia and 158/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.6/10 - It's quite literal. I kind of wish it was Pictou-Eastern Shore.

Shape: 5.7/10 - I don't hate it, the borders just feel arbitrary.

Individuality: 7.7/10 - I like that so many prominent politicians have ran here and even ran against eachother.

Total: 22/30 (73.3%)

See you tomorrow in Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola!

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek (Saskatchewan) 59/338

 Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek (Saskatchewan)

Today we're in rural Saskatchewan with Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek!

Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, the original name was proposed to be Humboldt—Warman—Martensville—Rosetown. The population centers are Warman (10,961 in 2016), Martensville (9,533 in 2016), and Humboldt (4,872 in 2016). The riding is named for Carlton Trail, a primary 19th century transportation route, and Eagle Creek, it seems to be a bit of a regional name, there are a few locations in the area named after it.

Politically, it has had interesting flips. Granted, the distribution from 1988 to 2015 had a rural-urban split. In less polarized times, this seat was very close, even up to 2004 when former Conservative MP Jim Pankiw ran and there was a four way race between Conservative, NDP, Liberals, and Jim Pankiw, all within 2,500 votes. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Kelly Block.

As I mentioned earlier, the city of Humboldt is in the riding. The town is home to the Humboldt Broncos, a junior hockey team in the Saskatchewan Junior Hockey League. On April 16th, 2018, the team underwent tragedy when a truck hit their team bus during a tournament, causing 16 fatalities and serious injuries to the rest of the bus. The rest of the team has since recovered, with varying injuries and the team has returned to the ice. In 2019, the riding was 11/14 in Saskatchewan and 323/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 6.7/10 - I like regional names, but for a region so large, I don't know how to fix it.

Shape: 5.9/10 - It does the best it can, given the purpose of the riding, but it is a little too jagged for my liking.  

Individuality: 7.4/10 - I love close races, and 2004 is exactly what I want out of close races. But now it has fallen into the typical rural prairie riding.

Total: 20/30 (66.7%)

Tomorrow we're back in Nova Scotia with Central Nova!

Carleton (Ontario) 58/338

 Carleton (Ontario)

Today we're in eastern Ontario with Carleton!

Carleton has existed as a riding since Confederation until 1968 and was reintroduced in 2012. The population of the riding was 102,918 in 2016. The riding is a southern suburb of Ottawa, and as a suburb it has a younger age, 20% of the riding is under 15 and only 13% is 65 and over, the Ontario average is 16% and 17% respectively. 

Politically, it has typically been a safe Conservative, only getting close in specific circumstances. In recent history, the 2015 election was very close, less than 2,000 votes between the incumbent Conservative and the Liberal candidate, and from 1993 until 2000, it was held by a Liberal by pretty smaller and smaller margins until it flipped. The seat is currently held by Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre.

That name must sound familiar, right? Pierre Poilievre has served as an MP since 2004, unseating Defense Minister David Pratt. Pierre Poilievre served in the Harper cabinet with two different portfolios, Minister of State for Democratic Reform and the Minister of Employment and Social Development. He has served in office for 17 years, almost half his life as he is only 42 years old. The riding was 26/121 in Ontario and 79/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.1/10 - I like that it's a historical name and there is some modern precedent too, but it's a little too vague for me, Carleton-Stittsville would be nice.

Shape: 7.5/10 - It follows the historical boundaries, I'll give them that. It's the internal boundaries that bug me.

Individuality: 7.1/10 - It is interesting to see right-leaning suburbs in Ontario, and the unseating of a cabinet minister is always pretty cool, I guess not for David Pratt.

Total: 22.7/30 (75.7%)

See you tomorrow in Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek!

Cariboo—Prince George (British Columbia) 57/338

 Cariboo—Prince George (British Columbia)

Today we're in Northern British Columbia with Cariboo—Prince George!

Cariboo—Prince George has existed as a riding since 2004, created from Cariboo—Chilcotin and Prince George—Bulkley Valley. The population centers are Prince George (65,510 in 2016, shared with Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies), Quesnel (12,064 in 2016), and Williams Lake (10,508 in 2016). The riding has a very high indigenous population, about 17% of the riding is indigenous, 11 points more than the BC average.

Politically, this riding is very interesting. While it has solely elected Conservatives in modern history, that is not to say it hasn't been close: The Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP were all within 6,000 votes from winning in 2019, the NDP was within 300 votes of winning in 1988 in one former riding, and the NDP did win in 1988 in the other former riding. The riding is currently represented by Conservative MP Todd Doherty.

The interesting thing about BC rural ridings is that they're not as polarized as other western rural ridings. What makes them like this? It could be attributed to urban centers. Here in BC, almost every riding is connected to a major urban center. The province also has historically high support for the four major parties. In 2019, the riding was 40/42 in BC and 267/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.4/10 - It's good that it's named after Prince George and the region, maybe Cariboo would be fine on it's own.

Shape: 6.7/10 - It is okay with following rivers, but sometimes it arbitrarily decides not to.

Individuality: 6.4/10 - It is really cool how close it got and when it flipped in 1988, but it has mostly stayed above 50%.

Total: 21.5/30 (71.7%)

See you tomorrow in Carleton!

Cardigan (Prince Edward Island) 56/338

 Cardigan (Prince Edward Island)

Today we're in our first Prince Edward Island riding, Cardigan!

Cardigan has existed as a riding since 1968, created from Kings and the dual-member district of Queens. The population of the riding was 36,615 in 2016, with the population centers of Stratford (9,706), Three Rivers (4,519), and Souris (1,053). In 2016, about 15 Amish families moved to Montague, New Perth, and Dundas and have been integrated in the communities since.  

Politically, this is a Liberal bastion. In the past 53 years, it has gone Liberal all but three times, and two of those Conservative times, it was within 300 votes. The Progressive Conservatives were very close in 1997 and 2000, within 100 votes and 300 votes respectively. For a region so Liberal federally, it elected six PC's and one Green last provincial election. The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP and Minister of Veterans Affairs, Lawrence MacAulay.

Lawrence MacAulay has sat in the House of Commons since 1988 and has served in the Chrétien and Trudeau Cabinets. He is the longest sitting MP from PEI, beating Angus McLean in 2014. He is very well liked on the island, he was actually born in Saint Peters Bay in the north of the riding. In 2019, the riding was 3/4 in Prince Edward Island and 194/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.4/10 - I'm sure the name had more relevance when Cardigan had more people, but now that it's part of Three Rivers, I could see that becoming the name.

Shape: 8.9/10 - There's not much to get annoyed with, but it's a little jagged I guess.

Individuality: 7.7/10 - It is really cool how Lawrence MacAulay has served there and the difference between provincial and federal is very stark.

Total: 24/30 (80%)

See you tomorrow in Cariboo—Prince George! (Thank you to andytheislander for your insights into the riding!)

Cape Breton-Canso (Nova Scotia) 55/338

 Cape Breton-Canso (Nova Scotia)

Today we're in our first Nova Scotia riding, Cape Breton—Canso!

Cape Breton—Canso has existed as a riding since 1997, but has changed names twice, from Bras d'Or, to Bras d'Or—Cape Breton, to the current name in 2004. The population centers are Glace Bay (17,556 in 2016), Port Hawkesbury (3,004 in 2016), and Guysborough County (7,625 in 2016, shared with Central Nova). Most of the riding is on Cape Breton Island.

Politically, there have been some really interesting trends here. The seat was picked up in 1997 by the NDP, when they carried 6/11 Nova Scotia seats. However, in 2000 it easily swung 20 points to the Liberals who have held it since. The seat swung 30 points to the Liberals in 2015 and 35 points away in 2019 to be within 5 points of the Conservatives picking up the seat. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Mike Kelloway.

The 2017 provincial election was a pre-cursor to the 2019 federal result. The riding went from a PC/Liberal two and two split to three PC's and one Liberal that barely hung on after winning by 65 points the election before. Sound familiar? As the Nova Scotia election is in two weeks, I'll update on these provincial ridings: 338Canada is currently projecting two PC's and two Liberals, a pickup for the Liberals. In 2019, this riding was 4/11 in Nova Scotia and 44/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 7.8/10 - It's a pretty good name, however I'd prefer Cape Breton—Guysborough, it just makes more sense than a smaller community name.

Shape: 6.4/10 - I just wish the borders were a little less squiggly.

Individuality: 7.3/10 - I love how big the swings are, especially 2015 to 2019.

Total: 21.5/30 (71.7%)

See you tomorrow in our first Prince Edward Island riding, Cardigan!

Cambridge (Ontario) 54/338

 Cambridge (Ontario)

Today we're in Cambridge!

Cambridge has existed as a riding since 1976, created from Waterloo-Cambridge. The riding contains Cambridge (129,920 in 2016), North Dumfries (10,215 in 2016), and part of Brant County (shared with Brantford-Brant). The riding is a commuter town of Kitchener-Waterloo, being only 22 km from Kitchener.

Politically, the riding is a notable bellwether since its creation, only voting against the winner nationally in 1980 and 2004, and even then the race was close in those two elections. My favourite part of the bellwether is that since 2006, it has voted in order of opposition parties (ie 2011 it went Conservative, NDP, Liberal, Green). The riding is currently represented by Liberal MP Bryan May.

The three parties that won seats in Ontario in 2019 each won quite a bit of the polling divisions in Cambridge city, just from eye-balling, it looks like 60/20/20 for the Liberals/NDP/Conservatives. The results in the riding are actually fairly similar to the provincial results in 2019, with the NDP and Greens outperforming the province by a couple points each. In 2019, the riding was 31/121 in Ontario and 91/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.9/10 - It's a perfect name, but it doesn't include North Dumfries, I know it's nitpicky, but I don't care.

Shape: 8.4/10 - It is very good, but I'm not the biggest fan of the eastern box that juts out.

Individuality: 7.8/10 - I love a good bellwether and the rest of the seats going in opposition order helps too. But it is also fairly southwestern Ontario.

Total: 25.1/30 (83.7%)

Tomorrow we're in our first Nova Scotia riding, Cape Breton-Canso!

Calgary Skyview (Alberta) 53/338

Calgary Skyview (Alberta)

Today we're in our last Calgary riding, Calgary Skyview!

Calgary Skyview has existed as a riding since the 2012 redistribution, created from Calgary Northeast. The population of the riding was 135,730 in 2016. The riding is named for the Skyview ranch neighbourhood, home to 2,990 residents as of 2012. Calgary International Airport is also within the riding boundaries.

Politically, there has been some change here as of late! In 2015, the riding elected their first Liberal in modern history, Darshan Kang. As you probably know, that didn't last more than one election, the combination of Darshan Kang not running again from some controversy and the Alberta sentiment towards the Liberal party gave the seat handily back to the Conservatives. The riding is currently held by Conservative MP Jag Sahota.

We're rounding out our time in Calgary by talking about the Conservative Party's strength in the city. It really is uncharacteristic how conservative an urban center is, but it is on average 1.7% less Conservative than the rest of the province, but because of our FPTP system, Conservatives win every seat. Even ridings that have large minority populations, like Skyview, are typically Conservative, only flipping when things are very good for Liberals. In 2019, the riding was 4/34 in Alberta and 226/338 in Canada by margin.

Rating:

Name: 8.4/10 - I like the name, I just wish that Skyview Ranch had more people, but Skyview also works on the airport level.

Shape: 7.5/10 - I don't mind it, just a little weird with what roads it chooses to follow.

Individuality: 8.6/10 - I have to give it props for the 2015 flip and how easily it flipped back.

Total: 24.5/30 (81.7%)

Tomorrow, we're in...not Calgary, we're in Cambridge!